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Colby Thicknesse

Bantamweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #51; v1.1 (shadow) #51

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 50-53: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,495, deviation 195: measured from 4 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290.

Age 27 (born 1999-06-23) · Height 5 ft 7 in (170 cm) · Reach 69 in (175 cm) · Stance Orthodox · 8 days since last bout (2026-10-24) · Last five 3-1 · Streak W3

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,495 is the division's 59th highest of 86 board fighters; the ledger stands at -1.0 (less 1.0 for blowout losses; losses count for three years); 0 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (3-1 last five). Score -0.12 = -0.12 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.00 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #51.

TermValueDetail
Score-0.1270% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term-0.12resume rating 1,495, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term+0.00quality ledger -1.0: +0.0 QW +0.0 proof -1.0 blowout -0.0 weak
Form penalty0.00last five 3-1
Quality wins, 15 years00 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placementscore order #51v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1#51score -0.22; score order #51

Rules, weights and worked examples: methodology.

All 4 UFC bouts

DateEventOpponentOpp. official rankResultMethodRoundModel p
2026-10-24UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. EvloevAsaf ChopurovunrankedWsplit decision3 (5:00)52%
2026-05-02UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. PratesVince MoralesunrankedWunanimous decision3 (5:00)54%
2025-09-27UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. ReyesJosias MusasaunrankedWunanimous decision3 (5:00)58%
2025-02-08UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2Aleksandre TopuriaunrankedLunanimous decision3 (5:00)50%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 86 board fighters at Bantamweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute3.72(44th percentile at Bantamweight)
Significant strike accuracy46%(44th percentile at Bantamweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes0.00(37th percentile at Bantamweight)
Share of wins by finish0%(15th percentile at Bantamweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute3.10(34th percentile at Bantamweight)
Significant strike defence52%(36th percentile at Bantamweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes0.00(45th percentile at Bantamweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career186(45th percentile at Bantamweight)
KO/TKO losses0(63rd percentile at Bantamweight)
Submission losses0(66th percentile at Bantamweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger0.000(64th percentile at Bantamweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes0.75(36th percentile at Bantamweight)
Takedown defence33%(11th percentile at Bantamweight)
Share of cage time in control23%(69th percentile at Bantamweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground46%(94th percentile at Bantamweight)
Stylemixed (10.8 takedown attempts per 15 min; 23% control)
Career stage
Age27.4(12th percentile at Bantamweight)
Age at UFC debut25.6(29th percentile at Bantamweight)
Years since UFC debut1.7(33rd percentile at Bantamweight)
UFC bouts4(47th percentile at Bantamweight)
Cage time, minutes60(50th percentile at Bantamweight)
Bouts per year, last three years2.3(88th percentile at Bantamweight)
Days since last bout8(5th percentile at Bantamweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

C2040608020252026Oct 2023Oct 20262025-02-14: #59, Bantamweight2025-02-21: #60, Bantamweight2025-02-28: #60, Bantamweight2025-03-07: #60, Bantamweight2025-03-14: #60, Bantamweight2025-03-21: #60, Bantamweight2025-03-28: #60, Bantamweight2025-04-04: #61, Bantamweight2025-04-11: #59, Bantamweight2025-04-25: #59, Bantamweight2025-05-02: #58, Bantamweight2025-05-09: #58, Bantamweight2025-05-16: #59, Bantamweight2025-05-30: #58, Bantamweight2025-06-06: #58, Bantamweight2025-06-13: #59, Bantamweight2025-06-20: #59, Bantamweight2025-06-27: #59, Bantamweight2025-07-11: #58, Bantamweight2025-07-18: #58, Bantamweight2025-07-25: #58, Bantamweight2025-08-01: #59, Bantamweight2025-08-08: #59, Bantamweight2025-08-15: #59, Bantamweight2025-08-22: #59, Bantamweight2025-09-05: #59, Bantamweight2025-09-12: #59, Bantamweight2025-09-26: #59, Bantamweight2025-10-03: #52, Bantamweight2025-10-10: #53, Bantamweight2025-10-17: #53, Bantamweight2025-10-24: #54, Bantamweight2025-10-31: #54, Bantamweight2025-11-07: #54, Bantamweight2025-11-14: #54, Bantamweight2025-11-21: #54, Bantamweight2025-12-05: #53, Bantamweight2025-12-12: #51, Bantamweight2026-01-23: #49, Bantamweight2026-01-30: #49, Bantamweight2026-02-06: #51, Bantamweight2026-02-20: #50, Bantamweight2026-02-27: #50, Bantamweight2026-03-06: #50, Bantamweight2026-03-13: #50, Bantamweight2026-03-20: #51, Bantamweight2026-03-27: #50, Bantamweight2026-04-03: #51, Bantamweight2026-04-10: #51, Bantamweight2026-04-17: #50, Bantamweight2026-04-24: #51, Bantamweight2026-05-01: #52, Bantamweight2026-05-08: #51, Bantamweight2026-05-15: #49, Bantamweight2026-05-29: #50, Bantamweight2026-06-05: #50, Bantamweight2026-06-13: #50, Bantamweight2026-06-19: #50, Bantamweight2026-06-26: #50, Bantamweight2026-07-10: #50, Bantamweight2026-07-17: #51, Bantamweight2026-07-24: #51, Bantamweight2026-07-31: #52, Bantamweight2026-08-07: #52, Bantamweight2026-08-14: #52, Bantamweight2026-08-21: #52, Bantamweight2026-08-28: #52, Bantamweight2026-09-04: #53, Bantamweight2026-09-11: #53, Bantamweight2026-09-18: #53, Bantamweight2026-09-25: #54, Bantamweight2026-09-26: #56, Bantamweight2026-10-03: #55, Bantamweight2026-10-10: #56, Bantamweight2026-10-17: #58, Bantamweight2026-10-24: #55, Bantamweight2026-10-31: #51, Bantamweight#51

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 55 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

1,4501,5001,5502026Feb 2025Oct 20262025-02-08: 1,476 (L vs Aleksandre Topuria)2025-09-27: 1,510 (W vs Josias Musasa)2026-05-02: 1,513 (W vs Vince Morales)2026-10-24: 1,526 (W vs Asaf Chopurov)1,526

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

Recent performances run about 31 points ahead of the rating: fighters this age typically run 37 points ahead of their rating, and his own recent results track that.

ComponentPointsMeaning
Age component+37what fighters aged 27.4 typically run relative to their rating (population curve, all UFC bouts since 2011)
Own recent results-6his recency-weighted mean and trend over 4 bouts, shrunk toward zero; trend +1 points a year
Combined+31the rating's likely distance from his current performance level, in rating points
Readingahead of ratingahead of, in line with (within 30 points), or behind the rating

Performance relative to the rating, by age

-1.0-0.5+0.0+0.5+1.0252627282025-02-08 (age 25.6): L vs Aleksandre Topuria, residual -0.322025-09-27 (age 26.3): W vs Josias Musasa, residual +0.122026-05-02 (age 26.9): W vs Vince Morales, residual -0.012026-10-24 (age 27.3): W vs Asaf Chopurov, residual +0.03+0.05

Each dot is one decided UFC bout at his age then: the performance score minus the rating's expectation, on the score's own scale from -1 to +1 (filled = win, hollow = loss; above zero is better than the rating implied; a finish as a slight favourite is about +0.45). The dashed line is the population curve for all fighters; the solid line is this fighter's own fitted level and trend as of the data date, weighted toward recent bouts. One unit sustained over many bouts corresponds to about 695 rating points; a single bout's residual is noisy.

Held-out evidence (walk-forward 2016 to 2026, EXP-2026-10-21-01): the age curve held in every test year; the individual component is a weak signal (correlation 0.06 with the next bout's residual; among fighters aged 33 or over, the lowest predicted quartile won 38% of next bouts against 53% expected, the highest 48% against 52%) and adds nothing to bout prediction beyond the shadow model. No board uses any of it: the rankings answer who has earned the place, not who wins next (EXP-2026-10-20-09). Method: src/mmalab/decline.py; settings: config/decline.yaml (expectation from the resume rating; one unit of residual is about 695 rating points).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.