Josias Musasa

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 71-73: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,442, deviation 245: measured from 2 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290. Provisional: 2 UFC bouts; the rating rests on little evidence.

Age 28 (born 1998-10-10) · Height 5 ft 8 in (173 cm) · Reach 74 in (188 cm) · Stance Southpaw · 400 days since last bout (2025-09-27) · Last five 0-2 · Streak L2

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,442 is the division's 78th highest of 86 board fighters after an inactivity penalty of 10 points for 400 days without a bout; the ledger stands at -2.0 (less 1.0 for blowout losses, less 1.0 for other losses outside the top 5; losses count for three years); 0 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (0-2 last five). Score -0.34 = -0.28 (rating term, 70% weight) -0.06 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #72.

Term	Value	Detail
Score	-0.34	70% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term	-0.28	resume rating 1,442 (raw 1,452 less inactivity penalty 10), scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term	-0.06	quality ledger -2.0: +0.0 QW +0.0 proof -1.0 blowout -1.0 weak
Form penalty	0.00	last five 0-2
Quality wins, 15 years	0	0 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placement	score order #72	v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1	#70	score -0.54; score order #70

All 2 UFC bouts

Date	Event	Opponent	Opp. official rank	Result	Method	Round	Model p
2025-09-27	UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes	Colby Thicknesse	unranked	L	unanimous decision	3 (5:00)	42%
2025-03-15	UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2	Carlos Vera	unranked	L	submission	1 (3:16)	55%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 86 board fighters at Bantamweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute	3.07	(29th percentile at Bantamweight)
Significant strike accuracy	47%	(51st percentile at Bantamweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes	0.00	(37th percentile at Bantamweight)
Share of wins by finish	n/a
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute	4.27	(73rd percentile at Bantamweight)
Significant strike defence	42%	(10th percentile at Bantamweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes	0.82	(93rd percentile at Bantamweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career	78	(21st percentile at Bantamweight)
KO/TKO losses	0	(63rd percentile at Bantamweight)
Submission losses	1	(90th percentile at Bantamweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger	0.000	(64th percentile at Bantamweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes	0.82	(40th percentile at Bantamweight)
Takedown defence	88%	(85th percentile at Bantamweight)
Share of cage time in control	6%	(24th percentile at Bantamweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground	29%	(78th percentile at Bantamweight)
Style	striker (2.5 takedown attempts per 15 min; 6% control)
Career stage
Age	28.1	(16th percentile at Bantamweight)
Age at UFC debut	26.4	(43rd percentile at Bantamweight)
Years since UFC debut	1.6	(29th percentile at Bantamweight)
UFC bouts	2	(29th percentile at Bantamweight)
Cage time, minutes	18	(20th percentile at Bantamweight)
Bouts per year, last three years	1.2	(40th percentile at Bantamweight)
Days since last bout	400	(93rd percentile at Bantamweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 60 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

No trajectory index: it needs three decided UFC bouts and a bout within the last three years (config/decline.yaml).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.