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Natalia Silva

Women's Flyweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) champion; v1.1 (shadow) champion

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Rating 1,697, deviation 135: measured from 9 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290.

Age 29 (born 1997-02-03) · Height 5 ft 4 in (163 cm) · Reach 65 in (165 cm) · Stance Southpaw · 29 days since last bout (2026-10-03) · Last five 5-0 · Streak W9

Why she is ranked here

Rating 1,697 is the division's 5th highest of 37 board fighters; the ledger stands at +5.8 (+5.8 from quality wins; losses count for three years); 6 quality wins in 15 years, 5 over top-10 opponents, which makes her entrenched; no form penalty (5-0 last five). Score +0.76 = +0.47 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.29 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); she holds the title and sits above the numbered board.

TermValueDetail
Score+0.7670% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term+0.47resume rating 1,697, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term+0.29quality ledger +5.8: +5.8 QW +0.0 proof -0.0 blowout -0.0 weak
Form penalty0.00last five 5-0
Quality wins, 15 years65 over top-10 opponents, 6 over top-15; entrenched
Placementtitle holderv1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1championscore +0.74; title holder

Rules, weights and worked examples: methodology.

All 9 UFC bouts

DateEventOpponentOpp. official rankResultMethodRoundModel p
2026-10-03UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang (title)Wang Cong#8Wunanimous decision5 (5:00)54%
2026-01-24UFC 324: Gaethje vs. PimblettRose Namajunas#6Wunanimous decision3 (5:00)50%
2025-05-10UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della MaddalenaAlexa Grasso#1Wunanimous decision3 (5:00)60%
2024-09-07UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. BradyJessica Andrade#6Wunanimous decision3 (5:00)49%
2024-02-03UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. ImavovViviane Araujo#7Wunanimous decision3 (5:00)70%
2023-08-19UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'MalleyAndrea Lee#13Wunanimous decision3 (5:00)54%
2023-05-20UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. HillVictoria LeonardounrankedWKO/TKO1 (2:58)79%
2022-11-19UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. CutelabaTereza BledaunrankedWKO/TKO3 (1:27)63%
2022-06-18UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. EmmettJasmine JasudaviciusunrankedWunanimous decision3 (5:00)45%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for her (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 37 board fighters at Women's Flyweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute4.72(78th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Significant strike accuracy46%(57th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes0.35(95th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Share of wins by finish22%(36th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute2.66(24th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Significant strike defence63%(86th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes0.00(54th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career344(49th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
KO/TKO losses0(54th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Submission losses0(65th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger0.000(57th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes0.70(35th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Takedown defence90%(97th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Share of cage time in control8%(19th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground7%(11th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Stylestriker (1.7 takedown attempts per 15 min; 8% control)
Career stage
Age29.7(31st percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Age at UFC debut25.4(36th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Years since UFC debut4.4(46th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
UFC bouts9(59th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Cage time, minutes129(59th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Bouts per year, last three years1.7(78th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Days since last bout29(24th percentile at Women's Flyweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

C24681020252026Oct 2023Oct 20262023-10-06: #7, Women's Flyweight2023-10-13: #7, Women's Flyweight2023-10-20: #7, Women's Flyweight2023-11-03: #7, Women's Flyweight2023-11-10: #7, Women's Flyweight2023-11-17: #7, Women's Flyweight2023-12-01: #7, Women's Flyweight2023-12-08: #7, Women's Flyweight2023-12-15: #7, Women's Flyweight2024-01-12: #7, Women's Flyweight2024-01-19: #7, Women's Flyweight2024-02-02: #7, Women's Flyweight2024-02-09: #6, Women's Flyweight2024-02-16: #6, Women's Flyweight2024-02-23: #6, Women's Flyweight2024-03-01: #6, Women's Flyweight2024-03-08: #6, Women's Flyweight2024-03-15: #6, Women's Flyweight2024-03-22: #6, Women's Flyweight2024-03-29: #7, Women's Flyweight2024-04-05: #7, Women's Flyweight2024-04-12: #7, Women's Flyweight2024-04-26: #7, Women's Flyweight2024-05-03: #7, Women's Flyweight2024-05-10: #7, Women's Flyweight2024-05-17: #7, Women's Flyweight2024-05-31: #7, Women's Flyweight2024-06-07: #7, Women's Flyweight2024-06-14: #7, Women's Flyweight2024-06-21: #7, Women's Flyweight2024-06-28: #7, Women's Flyweight2024-07-12: #7, Women's Flyweight2024-07-19: #7, Women's Flyweight2024-07-26: #7, Women's Flyweight2024-08-02: #7, Women's Flyweight2024-08-09: #7, Women's Flyweight2024-08-16: #7, Women's Flyweight2024-08-23: #7, Women's Flyweight2024-09-06: #7, Women's Flyweight2024-09-13: #6, Women's Flyweight2024-09-27: #5, Women's Flyweight2024-10-04: #5, Women's Flyweight2024-10-11: #5, Women's Flyweight2024-10-18: #5, Women's Flyweight2024-10-25: #5, Women's Flyweight2024-11-01: #5, Women's Flyweight2024-11-08: #5, Women's Flyweight2024-11-15: #5, Women's Flyweight2024-11-22: #5, Women's Flyweight2024-12-06: #5, Women's Flyweight2024-12-13: #5, Women's Flyweight2025-01-10: #5, Women's Flyweight2025-01-17: #5, Women's Flyweight2025-01-31: #5, Women's Flyweight2025-02-07: #5, Women's Flyweight2025-02-14: #5, Women's Flyweight2025-02-21: #5, Women's Flyweight2025-02-28: #5, Women's Flyweight2025-03-07: #5, Women's Flyweight2025-03-14: #5, Women's Flyweight2025-03-21: #5, Women's Flyweight2025-03-28: #5, Women's Flyweight2025-04-04: #4, Women's Flyweight2025-04-11: #4, Women's Flyweight2025-04-25: #4, Women's Flyweight2025-05-02: #4, Women's Flyweight2025-05-09: #4, Women's Flyweight2025-05-16: #2, Women's Flyweight2025-05-30: #2, Women's Flyweight2025-06-06: #2, Women's Flyweight2025-06-13: #2, Women's Flyweight2025-06-20: #3, Women's Flyweight2025-06-27: #3, Women's Flyweight2025-07-11: #3, Women's Flyweight2025-07-18: #3, Women's Flyweight2025-07-25: #3, Women's Flyweight2025-08-01: #3, Women's Flyweight2025-08-08: #3, Women's Flyweight2025-08-15: #3, Women's Flyweight2025-08-22: #3, Women's Flyweight2025-09-05: #3, Women's Flyweight2025-09-12: #3, Women's Flyweight2025-09-26: #3, Women's Flyweight2025-10-03: #3, Women's Flyweight2025-10-10: #3, Women's Flyweight2025-10-17: #3, Women's Flyweight2025-10-24: #4, Women's Flyweight2025-10-31: #4, Women's Flyweight2025-11-07: #4, Women's Flyweight2025-11-14: #4, Women's Flyweight2025-11-21: #4, Women's Flyweight2025-12-05: #4, Women's Flyweight2025-12-12: #4, Women's Flyweight2026-01-23: #4, Women's Flyweight2026-01-30: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-02-06: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-02-20: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-02-27: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-03-06: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-03-13: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-03-20: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-03-27: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-04-03: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-04-10: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-04-17: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-04-24: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-05-01: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-05-08: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-05-15: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-05-29: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-06-05: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-06-13: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-06-19: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-06-26: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-07-10: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-07-17: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-07-24: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-07-31: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-08-07: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-08-14: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-08-21: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-08-28: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-09-04: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-09-11: #2, Women's Flyweight2026-09-18: #3, Women's Flyweight2026-09-25: #3, Women's Flyweight2026-09-26: #3, Women's Flyweight2026-10-03: #3, Women's Flyweight2026-10-10: title holder, Women's Flyweight2026-10-17: title holder, Women's Flyweight2026-10-24: title holder, Women's Flyweight2026-10-31: title holder, Women's FlyweightC

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better).

Predictive rating by bout

1,5501,6001,6501,7001,7501,800202420252026Jun 2022Oct 20262022-06-18: 1,590 (W vs Jasmine Jasudavicius)2022-11-19: 1,616 (W vs Tereza Bleda)2023-05-20: 1,650 (W vs Victoria Leonardo)2023-08-19: 1,689 (W vs Andrea Lee)2024-02-03: 1,666 (W vs Viviane Araujo)2024-09-07: 1,720 (W vs Jessica Andrade)2025-05-10: 1,731 (W vs Alexa Grasso)2026-01-24: 1,760 (W vs Rose Namajunas)2026-10-03: 1,775 (W vs Wang Cong)1,775

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

Recent performances are in line with the rating (+22 points).

ComponentPointsMeaning
Age component+3what fighters aged 29.7 typically run relative to their rating (population curve, all UFC bouts since 2011)
Own recent results+18her recency-weighted mean and trend over 9 bouts, shrunk toward zero; trend -3 points a year
Combined+22the rating's likely distance from her current performance level, in rating points
Readingin line with ratingahead of, in line with (within 30 points), or behind the rating

Performance relative to the rating, by age

-1.0-0.5+0.0+0.5+1.024252627282930312022-06-18 (age 25.4): W vs Jasmine Jasudavicius, residual +0.512022-11-19 (age 25.8): W vs Tereza Bleda, residual +0.412023-05-20 (age 26.3): W vs Victoria Leonardo, residual +0.282023-08-19 (age 26.5): W vs Andrea Lee, residual +0.412024-02-03 (age 27.0): W vs Viviane Araujo, residual -0.032024-09-07 (age 27.6): W vs Jessica Andrade, residual +0.512025-05-10 (age 28.3): W vs Alexa Grasso, residual +0.312026-01-24 (age 29.0): W vs Rose Namajunas, residual +0.132026-10-03 (age 29.7): W vs Wang Cong, residual +0.01+0.03

Each dot is one decided UFC bout at her age then: the performance score minus the rating's expectation, on the score's own scale from -1 to +1 (filled = win, hollow = loss; above zero is better than the rating implied; a finish as a slight favourite is about +0.45). The dashed line is the population curve for all fighters; the solid line is this fighter's own fitted level and trend as of the data date, weighted toward recent bouts. One unit sustained over many bouts corresponds to about 695 rating points; a single bout's residual is noisy.

Held-out evidence (walk-forward 2016 to 2026, EXP-2026-10-21-01): the age curve held in every test year; the individual component is a weak signal (correlation 0.06 with the next bout's residual; among fighters aged 33 or over, the lowest predicted quartile won 38% of next bouts against 53% expected, the highest 48% against 52%) and adds nothing to bout prediction beyond the shadow model. No board uses any of it: the rankings answer who has earned the place, not who wins next (EXP-2026-10-20-09). Method: src/mmalab/decline.py; settings: config/decline.yaml (expectation from the resume rating; one unit of residual is about 695 rating points).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like her, not a forecast for her; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.