Women's Flyweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #4; v1.1 (shadow) #4
Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).
Weight band 4-4: the 10th to 90th percentile of her position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights (the position does not depend on the weights). Rating 1,624, deviation 118: measured from 13 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290.
Age 37 (born 1989-03-01) · Height 5 ft 7 in (170 cm) · Reach 68 in (173 cm) · Stance Orthodox · 15 days since last bout (2026-10-17) · Last five 4-1 · Streak W2
Why she is ranked here
Rating 1,624 is the division's 9th highest of 37 board fighters; the ledger stands at +4.3 (+5.3 from quality wins, less 1.0 for blowout losses; losses count for three years); 6 quality wins in 15 years, 4 over top-10 opponents, which makes her entrenched; no form penalty (4-1 last five). Score +0.48 = +0.25 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.23 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put her at #6; the head-to-head rule (the winner of the most recent meeting within three years moves directly above the loser when ranked at most three places behind, six within a year) placed her #4.
Term
Value
Detail
Score
+0.48
70% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term
+0.25
resume rating 1,624, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for her (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.
Career statistics
Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 37 board fighters at Women's Flyweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.
Output
Significant strikes landed per minute
3.31
(32nd percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Significant strike accuracy
43%
(41st percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes
0.09
(62nd percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Share of wins by finish
30%
(45th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute
3.45
(46th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Significant strike defence
52%
(30th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes
0.00
(54th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career
571
(78th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
KO/TKO losses
1 (last 2025-10-18, 379 days ago)
(89th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Submission losses
0
(65th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger
0.027
(68th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes
2.72
(95th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Takedown defence
72%
(67th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Share of cage time in control
49%
(95th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground
32%
(84th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Style
wrestler (6.2 takedown attempts per 15 min; 49% control)
Career stage
Age
37.7
(86th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Age at UFC debut
32.9
(94th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Years since UFC debut
4.8
(51st percentile at Women's Flyweight)
UFC bouts
13
(81st percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Cage time, minutes
166
(81st percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Bouts per year, last three years
2.7
(97th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Days since last bout
15
(14th percentile at Women's Flyweight)
Board position since Oct 2023
Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better).
Predictive rating by bout
Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.
Trajectory
Recent performances are in line with the rating (-26 points).
Component
Points
Meaning
Age component
-63
what fighters aged 37.7 typically run relative to their rating (population curve, all UFC bouts since 2011)
Own recent results
+37
her recency-weighted mean and trend over 13 bouts, shrunk toward zero; trend +2 points a year
Combined
-26
the rating's likely distance from her current performance level, in rating points
Reading
in line with rating
ahead of, in line with (within 30 points), or behind the rating
Performance relative to the rating, by age
Each dot is one decided UFC bout at her age then: the performance score minus the rating's expectation, on the score's own scale from -1 to +1 (filled = win, hollow = loss; above zero is better than the rating implied; a finish as a slight favourite is about +0.45). The dashed line is the population curve for all fighters; the solid line is this fighter's own fitted level and trend as of the data date, weighted toward recent bouts. One unit sustained over many bouts corresponds to about 695 rating points; a single bout's residual is noisy.
Held-out evidence (walk-forward 2016 to 2026, EXP-2026-10-21-01): the age curve held in every test year; the individual component is a weak signal (correlation 0.06 with the next bout's residual; among fighters aged 33 or over, the lowest predicted quartile won 38% of next bouts against 53% expected, the highest 48% against 52%) and adds nothing to bout prediction beyond the shadow model. No board uses any of it: the rankings answer who has earned the place, not who wins next (EXP-2026-10-20-09). Method: src/mmalab/decline.py; settings: config/decline.yaml (expectation from the resume rating; one unit of residual is about 695 rating points).
Context flags
Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like her, not a forecast for her; the register entries hold the measurements.
Age band: 36 and over (age 37). On the board's own history (3,748 bouts between two board fighters, 2014 to 2026) the higher-scored fighter won 64% of bouts when under 30, 59% at 30 to 32, 57% at 33 to 35 and 42 to 46% at 36 and over (EXP-2026-10-20-09). A population rate, not a forecast for her.
Not raised: no KO/TKO loss in the last 90 days; last bout within 12 months; 13 UFC bouts, more than the provisional limit of 3.
REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.