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Juan Diaz

Bantamweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #26; v1.1 (shadow) #25

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 24-31: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,550, deviation 270: measured from 1 UFC bout; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290. Provisional: 1 UFC bout; the rating rests on little evidence.

Age 28 (born 1998-06-03) · Height unknown · Reach unknown · Stance unknown · 169 days since last bout (2026-05-16) · Last five 1-0 · Streak W1

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,550 is the division's 38th highest of 86 board fighters; the ledger stands at +0.0 (no quality wins or recent losses on the ledger); 0 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (1-0 last five). Score +0.11 = +0.04 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.06 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #26.

TermValueDetail
Score+0.1170% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term+0.04resume rating 1,550, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term+0.06quality ledger +0.0: +0.0 QW +0.0 proof -0.0 blowout -0.0 weak
Form penalty0.00last five 1-0
Quality wins, 15 years00 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placementscore order #26v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1#25score +0.10; score order #25

Rules, weights and worked examples: methodology.

All 1 UFC bout

DateEventOpponentOpp. official rankResultMethodRoundModel p
2026-05-16UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. CostaMalcolm WellmakerunrankedWsubmission2 (4:08)44%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 86 board fighters at Bantamweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute1.42(5th percentile at Bantamweight)
Significant strike accuracy52%(73rd percentile at Bantamweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes0.00(37th percentile at Bantamweight)
Share of wins by finish100%(100th percentile at Bantamweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute1.64(5th percentile at Bantamweight)
Significant strike defence55%(52nd percentile at Bantamweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes0.00(45th percentile at Bantamweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career15(6th percentile at Bantamweight)
KO/TKO losses0(63rd percentile at Bantamweight)
Submission losses0(66th percentile at Bantamweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger0.000(64th percentile at Bantamweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes8.21(100th percentile at Bantamweight)
Takedown defencen/a
Share of cage time in control42%(93rd percentile at Bantamweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground23%(64th percentile at Bantamweight)
Stylewrestler (13.1 takedown attempts per 15 min; 42% control)
Career stage
Age28.4(22nd percentile at Bantamweight)
Age at UFC debut28.0(60th percentile at Bantamweight)
Years since UFC debut0.5(14th percentile at Bantamweight)
UFC bouts1(17th percentile at Bantamweight)
Cage time, minutes9(8th percentile at Bantamweight)
Bouts per year, last three years1.0(35th percentile at Bantamweight)
Days since last bout169(65th percentile at Bantamweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

C10203020252026Oct 2023Oct 20262026-05-29: #29, Bantamweight2026-06-05: #30, Bantamweight2026-06-13: #30, Bantamweight2026-06-19: #30, Bantamweight2026-06-26: #30, Bantamweight2026-07-10: #30, Bantamweight2026-07-17: #29, Bantamweight2026-07-24: #29, Bantamweight2026-07-31: #29, Bantamweight2026-08-07: #29, Bantamweight2026-08-14: #29, Bantamweight2026-08-21: #30, Bantamweight2026-08-28: #30, Bantamweight2026-09-04: #30, Bantamweight2026-09-11: #30, Bantamweight2026-09-18: #30, Bantamweight2026-09-25: #27, Bantamweight2026-09-26: #27, Bantamweight2026-10-03: #27, Bantamweight2026-10-10: #27, Bantamweight2026-10-17: #28, Bantamweight2026-10-24: #28, Bantamweight2026-10-31: #26, Bantamweight#26

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 109 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

1,5501,600May 2026Oct 20262026-05-16: 1,553 (W vs Malcolm Wellmaker)1,553

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

No trajectory index: it needs three decided UFC bouts and a bout within the last three years (config/decline.yaml).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.