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Gauge Young

Lightweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #58; v1.1 (shadow) #64

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 56-60: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,510, deviation 181: measured from 4 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290.

Age 26 (born 2000-07-14) · Height 5 ft 9 in (175 cm) · Reach 70 in (178 cm) · Stance Orthodox · 71 days since last bout (2026-08-22) · Last five 2-2 · Streak L1

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,510 is the division's 64th highest of 96 board fighters; the ledger stands at -1.8 (+0.2 from quality wins, less 1.0 for blowout losses, less 1.0 for other losses outside the top 5; losses count for three years); 1 quality win in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (2-2 last five). Score -0.15 = -0.10 (rating term, 70% weight) -0.06 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #58.

TermValueDetail
Score-0.1570% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term-0.10resume rating 1,510, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term-0.06quality ledger -1.8: +0.2 QW +0.0 proof -1.0 blowout -1.0 weak
Form penalty0.00last five 2-2
Quality wins, 15 years10 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placementscore order #58v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1#64score -0.35; score order #64

Rules, weights and worked examples: methodology.

All 4 UFC bouts

DateEventOpponentOpp. official rankResultMethodRoundModel p
2026-08-22UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. RodriguesStan DorsainvilunrankedLunanimous decision3 (5:00)62%
2026-04-18UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. MalottThiago MoisesunrankedWsplit decision3 (5:00)50%
2025-08-23UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. ZhangMaheshateunrankedWunanimous decision3 (5:00)56%
2025-04-26UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. PratesEvan ElderunrankedLunanimous decision3 (5:00)46%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 96 board fighters at Lightweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute7.53(96th percentile at Lightweight)
Significant strike accuracy52%(73rd percentile at Lightweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes0.25(44th percentile at Lightweight)
Share of wins by finish0%(8th percentile at Lightweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute5.82(85th percentile at Lightweight)
Significant strike defence54%(56th percentile at Lightweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes0.00(35th percentile at Lightweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career349(48th percentile at Lightweight)
KO/TKO losses0(40th percentile at Lightweight)
Submission losses0(52nd percentile at Lightweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger0.000(41st percentile at Lightweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes1.50(57th percentile at Lightweight)
Takedown defence88%(94th percentile at Lightweight)
Share of cage time in control13%(39th percentile at Lightweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground7%(10th percentile at Lightweight)
Stylemixed (4.0 takedown attempts per 15 min; 13% control)
Career stage
Age26.3(5th percentile at Lightweight)
Age at UFC debut24.8(26th percentile at Lightweight)
Years since UFC debut1.5(24th percentile at Lightweight)
UFC bouts4(31st percentile at Lightweight)
Cage time, minutes60(40th percentile at Lightweight)
Bouts per year, last three years2.6(94th percentile at Lightweight)
Days since last bout71(38th percentile at Lightweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

C2040608020252026Oct 2023Oct 20262025-05-02: #58, Lightweight2025-05-09: #59, Lightweight2025-05-16: #58, Lightweight2025-05-30: #56, Lightweight2025-06-06: #58, Lightweight2025-06-13: #58, Lightweight2025-06-20: #58, Lightweight2025-06-27: #58, Lightweight2025-07-11: #61, Lightweight2025-07-18: #61, Lightweight2025-07-25: #61, Lightweight2025-08-01: #61, Lightweight2025-08-08: #60, Lightweight2025-08-15: #60, Lightweight2025-08-22: #59, Lightweight2025-09-05: #52, Lightweight2025-09-12: #51, Lightweight2025-09-26: #52, Lightweight2025-10-03: #52, Lightweight2025-10-10: #51, Lightweight2025-10-17: #51, Lightweight2025-10-24: #51, Lightweight2025-10-31: #50, Lightweight2025-11-07: #50, Lightweight2025-11-14: #49, Lightweight2025-11-21: #48, Lightweight2025-12-05: #48, Lightweight2025-12-12: #49, Lightweight2026-01-23: #50, Lightweight2026-01-30: #50, Lightweight2026-02-06: #50, Lightweight2026-02-20: #50, Lightweight2026-02-27: #49, Lightweight2026-03-06: #48, Lightweight2026-03-13: #50, Lightweight2026-03-20: #50, Lightweight2026-03-27: #51, Lightweight2026-04-03: #53, Lightweight2026-04-10: #56, Lightweight2026-04-17: #56, Lightweight2026-04-24: #47, Lightweight2026-05-01: #47, Lightweight2026-05-08: #46, Lightweight2026-05-15: #47, Lightweight2026-05-29: #48, Lightweight2026-06-05: #48, Lightweight2026-06-13: #47, Lightweight2026-06-19: #47, Lightweight2026-06-26: #47, Lightweight2026-07-10: #46, Lightweight2026-07-17: #44, Lightweight2026-07-24: #43, Lightweight2026-07-31: #46, Lightweight2026-08-07: #48, Lightweight2026-08-14: #49, Lightweight2026-08-21: #49, Lightweight2026-08-28: #61, Lightweight2026-09-04: #61, Lightweight2026-09-11: #61, Lightweight2026-09-18: #61, Lightweight2026-09-25: #61, Lightweight2026-09-26: #61, Lightweight2026-10-03: #61, Lightweight2026-10-10: #59, Lightweight2026-10-17: #61, Lightweight2026-10-24: #60, Lightweight2026-10-31: #58, Lightweight#58

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 65 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

1,4501,5001,5501,6002026Apr 2025Oct 20262025-04-26: 1,453 (L vs Evan Elder)2025-08-23: 1,515 (W vs Maheshate)2026-04-18: 1,583 (W vs Thiago Moises)2026-08-22: 1,560 (L vs Stan Dorsainvil)1,560

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

Recent performances run about 42 points ahead of the rating: fighters this age typically run 43 points ahead of their rating, and his own recent results track that.

ComponentPointsMeaning
Age component+43what fighters aged 26.3 typically run relative to their rating (population curve, all UFC bouts since 2011)
Own recent results-1his recency-weighted mean and trend over 4 bouts, shrunk toward zero; trend +1 points a year
Combined+42the rating's likely distance from his current performance level, in rating points
Readingahead of ratingahead of, in line with (within 30 points), or behind the rating

Performance relative to the rating, by age

-1.0-0.5+0.0+0.5+1.0242526272025-04-26 (age 24.8): L vs Evan Elder, residual -0.372025-08-23 (age 25.1): W vs Maheshate, residual +0.282026-04-18 (age 25.8): W vs Thiago Moises, residual +0.302026-08-22 (age 26.1): L vs Stan Dorsainvil, residual -0.05+0.06

Each dot is one decided UFC bout at his age then: the performance score minus the rating's expectation, on the score's own scale from -1 to +1 (filled = win, hollow = loss; above zero is better than the rating implied; a finish as a slight favourite is about +0.45). The dashed line is the population curve for all fighters; the solid line is this fighter's own fitted level and trend as of the data date, weighted toward recent bouts. One unit sustained over many bouts corresponds to about 695 rating points; a single bout's residual is noisy.

Held-out evidence (walk-forward 2016 to 2026, EXP-2026-10-21-01): the age curve held in every test year; the individual component is a weak signal (correlation 0.06 with the next bout's residual; among fighters aged 33 or over, the lowest predicted quartile won 38% of next bouts against 53% expected, the highest 48% against 52%) and adds nothing to bout prediction beyond the shadow model. No board uses any of it: the rankings answer who has earned the place, not who wins next (EXP-2026-10-20-09). Method: src/mmalab/decline.py; settings: config/decline.yaml (expectation from the resume rating; one unit of residual is about 695 rating points).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.