Alden Coria

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 19-23: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,536, deviation 188: measured from 4 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290.

Age 28 (born 1998-04-24) · Height 5 ft 8 in (173 cm) · Reach 67 in (170 cm) · Stance Orthodox · 29 days since last bout (2026-10-03) · Last five 3-1 · Streak L1

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,536 is the division's 26th highest of 49 board fighters; the ledger stands at -1.0 (less 1.0 for blowout losses; losses count for three years); 0 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (3-1 last five). Score -0.02 = -0.02 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.00 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #21.

Term	Value	Detail
Score	-0.02	70% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term	-0.02	resume rating 1,536, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term	+0.00	quality ledger -1.0: +0.0 QW +0.0 proof -1.0 blowout -0.0 weak
Form penalty	0.00	last five 3-1
Quality wins, 15 years	0	0 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placement	score order #21	v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1	#19	score -0.12; score order #22; placement rules -> #19

All 4 UFC bouts

Date	Event	Opponent	Opp. official rank	Result	Method	Round	Model p
2026-10-03	UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang	Imanol Rodriguez	unranked	L	KO/TKO	1 (3:11)	56%
2026-07-18	UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman	Stewart Nicoll	unranked	W	unanimous decision	3 (5:00)	75%
2026-02-21	UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez	Luis Gurule	unranked	W	unanimous decision	3 (5:00)	70%
2025-09-13	Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva	Alessandro Costa	unranked	W	KO/TKO	3 (0:47)	43%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 49 board fighters at Flyweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute	3.84	(53rd percentile at Flyweight)
Significant strike accuracy	41%	(29th percentile at Flyweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes	0.00	(33rd percentile at Flyweight)
Share of wins by finish	33%	(40th percentile at Flyweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute	2.50	(22nd percentile at Flyweight)
Significant strike defence	68%	(98th percentile at Flyweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes	0.34	(73rd percentile at Flyweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career	110	(29th percentile at Flyweight)
KO/TKO losses	1 (last 2026-10-03, 29 days ago)	(84th percentile at Flyweight)
Submission losses	0	(51st percentile at Flyweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger	0.106	(84th percentile at Flyweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes	2.05	(69th percentile at Flyweight)
Takedown defence	53%	(28th percentile at Flyweight)
Share of cage time in control	17%	(55th percentile at Flyweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground	14%	(37th percentile at Flyweight)
Style	mixed (3.8 takedown attempts per 15 min; 17% control)
Career stage
Age	28.5	(27th percentile at Flyweight)
Age at UFC debut	27.4	(61st percentile at Flyweight)
Years since UFC debut	1.1	(14th percentile at Flyweight)
UFC bouts	4	(37th percentile at Flyweight)
Cage time, minutes	44	(29th percentile at Flyweight)
Bouts per year, last three years	3.5	(96th percentile at Flyweight)
Days since last bout	29	(12th percentile at Flyweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 82 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

Component	Points	Meaning
Age component	+27	what fighters aged 28.5 typically run relative to their rating (population curve, all UFC bouts since 2011)
Own recent results	-2	his recency-weighted mean and trend over 4 bouts, shrunk toward zero; trend -2 points a year
Combined	+26	the rating's likely distance from his current performance level, in rating points
Reading	in line with rating	ahead of, in line with (within 30 points), or behind the rating

Performance relative to the rating, by age

Each dot is one decided UFC bout at his age then: the performance score minus the rating's expectation, on the score's own scale from -1 to +1 (filled = win, hollow = loss; above zero is better than the rating implied; a finish as a slight favourite is about +0.45). The dashed line is the population curve for all fighters; the solid line is this fighter's own fitted level and trend as of the data date, weighted toward recent bouts. One unit sustained over many bouts corresponds to about 695 rating points; a single bout's residual is noisy.

Held-out evidence (walk-forward 2016 to 2026, EXP-2026-10-21-01): the age curve held in every test year; the individual component is a weak signal (correlation 0.06 with the next bout's residual; among fighters aged 33 or over, the lowest predicted quartile won 38% of next bouts against 53% expected, the highest 48% against 52%) and adds nothing to bout prediction beyond the shadow model. No board uses any of it: the rankings answer who has earned the place, not who wins next (EXP-2026-10-20-09). Method: src/mmalab/decline.py; settings: config/decline.yaml (expectation from the resume rating; one unit of residual is about 695 rating points).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.