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Aaron Pico

Featherweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #36; v1.1 (shadow) #29

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 34-36: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,546, deviation 209: measured from 3 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290. Provisional: 3 UFC bouts; the rating rests on little evidence.

Age 30 (born 1996-09-23) · Height 5 ft 8 in (173 cm) · Reach 70 in (178 cm) · Stance Orthodox · 8 days since last bout (2026-10-24) · Last five 2-1 · Streak W2

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,546 is the division's 37th highest of 94 board fighters; the ledger stands at -1.0 (less 1.0 for blowout losses; losses count for three years); 0 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (2-1 last five). Score +0.05 = +0.05 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.00 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #36.

TermValueDetail
Score+0.0570% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term+0.05resume rating 1,546, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term+0.00quality ledger -1.0: +0.0 QW +0.0 proof -1.0 blowout -0.0 weak
Form penalty0.00last five 2-1
Quality wins, 15 years00 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placementscore order #36v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1#29score +0.08; score order #29

Rules, weights and worked examples: methodology.

All 3 UFC bouts

DateEventOpponentOpp. official rankResultMethodRoundModel p
2026-10-24UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. EvloevLosene KeitaunrankedWKO/TKO1 (1:14)51%
2026-04-11UFC 327: Prochazka vs. UlbergPatricio PitbullunrankedWunanimous decision3 (5:00)57%
2025-08-16UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. ChimaevLerone Murphy#6LKO/TKO1 (3:21)23%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 94 board fighters at Featherweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute6.08(88th percentile at Featherweight)
Significant strike accuracy54%(80th percentile at Featherweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes0.77(78th percentile at Featherweight)
Share of wins by finish50%(49th percentile at Featherweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute3.01(30th percentile at Featherweight)
Significant strike defence45%(20th percentile at Featherweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes0.77(76th percentile at Featherweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career59(24th percentile at Featherweight)
KO/TKO losses1 (last 2025-08-16, 442 days ago)(74th percentile at Featherweight)
Submission losses0(77th percentile at Featherweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger0.176(76th percentile at Featherweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes6.89(95th percentile at Featherweight)
Takedown defencen/a
Share of cage time in control31%(86th percentile at Featherweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground18%(52nd percentile at Featherweight)
Stylewrestler (13.8 takedown attempts per 15 min; 31% control)
Career stage
Age30.1(34th percentile at Featherweight)
Age at UFC debut28.9(62nd percentile at Featherweight)
Years since UFC debut1.2(34th percentile at Featherweight)
UFC bouts3(43rd percentile at Featherweight)
Cage time, minutes20(33rd percentile at Featherweight)
Bouts per year, last three years2.5(87th percentile at Featherweight)
Days since last bout8(9th percentile at Featherweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

C20406020252026Oct 2023Oct 20262025-08-22: #57, Featherweight2025-09-05: #57, Featherweight2025-09-12: #58, Featherweight2025-09-26: #57, Featherweight2025-10-03: #57, Featherweight2025-10-10: #55, Featherweight2025-10-17: #56, Featherweight2025-10-24: #56, Featherweight2025-10-31: #56, Featherweight2025-11-07: #55, Featherweight2025-11-14: #55, Featherweight2025-11-21: #55, Featherweight2025-12-05: #54, Featherweight2025-12-12: #53, Featherweight2026-01-23: #52, Featherweight2026-01-30: #52, Featherweight2026-02-06: #51, Featherweight2026-02-20: #54, Featherweight2026-02-27: #53, Featherweight2026-03-06: #53, Featherweight2026-03-13: #53, Featherweight2026-03-20: #53, Featherweight2026-03-27: #52, Featherweight2026-04-03: #51, Featherweight2026-04-10: #51, Featherweight2026-04-17: #42, Featherweight2026-04-24: #43, Featherweight2026-05-01: #44, Featherweight2026-05-08: #45, Featherweight2026-05-15: #44, Featherweight2026-05-29: #45, Featherweight2026-06-05: #45, Featherweight2026-06-13: #45, Featherweight2026-06-19: #45, Featherweight2026-06-26: #47, Featherweight2026-07-10: #46, Featherweight2026-07-17: #46, Featherweight2026-07-24: #45, Featherweight2026-07-31: #46, Featherweight2026-08-07: #44, Featherweight2026-08-14: #44, Featherweight2026-08-21: #44, Featherweight2026-08-28: #43, Featherweight2026-09-04: #43, Featherweight2026-09-11: #44, Featherweight2026-09-18: #45, Featherweight2026-09-25: #45, Featherweight2026-09-26: #45, Featherweight2026-10-03: #45, Featherweight2026-10-10: #43, Featherweight2026-10-17: #43, Featherweight2026-10-24: #37, Featherweight2026-10-31: #36, Featherweight#36

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 79 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

1,5501,6001,6501,7001,7502026Aug 2025Oct 20262025-08-16: 1,552 (L vs Lerone Murphy)2026-04-11: 1,618 (W vs Patricio Pitbull)2026-10-24: 1,713 (W vs Losene Keita)1,713

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

Recent performances are in line with the rating (+27 points).

ComponentPointsMeaning
Age component+14what fighters aged 30.1 typically run relative to their rating (population curve, all UFC bouts since 2011)
Own recent results+14his recency-weighted mean and trend over 3 bouts, shrunk toward zero; trend +1 points a year
Combined+27the rating's likely distance from his current performance level, in rating points
Readingin line with ratingahead of, in line with (within 30 points), or behind the rating

Performance relative to the rating, by age

-1.0-0.5+0.0+0.5+1.0282930312025-08-16 (age 28.9): L vs Lerone Murphy, residual -0.262026-04-11 (age 29.5): W vs Patricio Pitbull, residual +0.452026-10-24 (age 30.1): W vs Losene Keita, residual +0.51+0.04

Each dot is one decided UFC bout at his age then: the performance score minus the rating's expectation, on the score's own scale from -1 to +1 (filled = win, hollow = loss; above zero is better than the rating implied; a finish as a slight favourite is about +0.45). The dashed line is the population curve for all fighters; the solid line is this fighter's own fitted level and trend as of the data date, weighted toward recent bouts. One unit sustained over many bouts corresponds to about 695 rating points; a single bout's residual is noisy.

Held-out evidence (walk-forward 2016 to 2026, EXP-2026-10-21-01): the age curve held in every test year; the individual component is a weak signal (correlation 0.06 with the next bout's residual; among fighters aged 33 or over, the lowest predicted quartile won 38% of next bouts against 53% expected, the highest 48% against 52%) and adds nothing to bout prediction beyond the shadow model. No board uses any of it: the rankings answer who has earned the place, not who wins next (EXP-2026-10-20-09). Method: src/mmalab/decline.py; settings: config/decline.yaml (expectation from the resume rating; one unit of residual is about 695 rating points).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.