Prediction model

Separate from the REAL resume board. This answers a different question: who would be favored if the fight happened today, not who has earned the position. It weighs in-fight dominance heavily and is graded on bouts it has not seen. Held-out accuracy 60.6% (log loss 0.6631) on 3,390 bouts from 2020 on, against 58.1% (0.674) for results-only Elo; the log-loss gain of 0.011 has a 95% event-block bootstrap interval of 0.006 to 0.016. On the 1,445 held-out bouts with closing odds (2020-2023) the de-vigged market scored 67.1% (0.6088) against this model's 60.0% (0.669). Data through 2026-10-31. Win chance is against the top-rated fighter in this list.

Shadow v1.1 (under test, not in use)

Walk-forward re-tuning over 2011 onward (parameters chosen on every year before the test year, then scored on it) plus a logistic layer on age, layoff, experience, height, five-round bouts and a red-corner term. On the 3,404 bouts of 2020-2026 it scored 0.640 log loss and 63.1% accuracy against 0.663 and 60.6% for v1.0 on the same bouts (paired gain 0.023, 95% event-block bootstrap 0.017 to 0.030). Those are development results; v1.1 is graded prospectively in the picks ledger and is adopted only under PREREGISTRATION.md appendix B. Full report: outputs/shadow_v11_report.json.

Flyweight

#	Fighter	Predictive rating	Win chance vs #1 here	Resume board spot
1	Joshua Van	1767	50%	C
2	Alexandre Pantoja	1718	43%	4
3	Manel Kape	1713	42%	1
4	Brandon Royval	1682	38%	3
5	Tatsuro Taira	1678	37%	5
6	Kai Kara-France	1651	34%	8
7	Asu Almabayev	1646	33%	7
8	Kyoji Horiguchi	1644	33%	2
9	Sumudaerji	1643	33%	20
10	Jose Ochoa	1642	33%	18
11	Rei Tsuruya	1641	33%	16
12	Alex Perez	1637	32%	22
13	Imanol Rodriguez	1634	32%	12
14	Lone'er Kavanagh	1618	30%	26
15	Brandon Moreno	1603	28%	6

Bantamweight

#	Fighter	Predictive rating	Win chance vs #1 here	Resume board spot
1	Merab Dvalishvili	1917	50%	4
2	Petr Yan	1861	42%	C
3	Umar Nurmagomedov	1829	38%	3
4	Mario Bautista	1817	36%	5
5	Sean O'Malley	1812	35%	1
6	Song Yadong	1786	32%	2
7	Cory Sandhagen	1768	30%	6
8	Payton Talbott	1761	29%	9
9	Marcus McGhee	1730	25%	7
10	Vinicius Oliveira	1729	25%	16
11	Montel Jackson	1727	25%	8
12	David Martinez	1705	23%	11
13	Bryce Mitchell	1693	22%	17
14	Aiemann Zahabi	1690	21%	14
15	Chris Gutierrez	1683	21%	23

Featherweight

#	Fighter	Predictive rating	Win chance vs #1 here	Resume board spot
1	Alexander Volkanovski	1896	50%	C
2	Aljamain Sterling	1846	43%	1
3	Diego Lopes	1786	35%	2
4	Steve Garcia	1783	34%	5
5	Movsar Evloev	1768	32%	4
6	Kevin Vallejos	1725	27%	7
7	Youssef Zalal	1715	26%	8
8	Aaron Pico	1713	26%	36
9	Arnold Allen	1704	25%	9
10	Tommy McMillen	1703	25%	14
11	Jean Silva	1698	24%	3
12	Melquizael Costa	1692	24%	22
13	Pat Sabatini	1689	23%	10
14	Joanderson Brito	1687	23%	11
15	Lerone Murphy	1674	22%	6

Lightweight

#	Fighter	Predictive rating	Win chance vs #1 here	Resume board spot
1	Arman Tsarukyan	1879	50%	4
2	Max Holloway	1865	48%	2
3	Ilia Topuria	1862	48%	3
4	Charles Oliveira	1845	45%	1
5	Paddy Pimblett	1830	43%	5
6	Quillan Salkilld	1812	40%	7
7	Justin Gaethje	1801	39%	C
8	Jalin Turner	1795	38%	15
9	Mateusz Gamrot	1771	35%	9
10	Benoit Saint Denis	1766	34%	6
11	Grant Dawson	1752	33%	8
12	Esteban Ribovics	1749	32%	17
13	Mauricio Ruffy	1725	29%	12
14	Rafael Fiziev	1713	28%	13
15	Manuel Torres	1707	27%	23

Welterweight

#	Fighter	Predictive rating	Win chance vs #1 here	Resume board spot
1	Islam Makhachev	1956	50%	C
2	Michael Morales	1909	43%	1
3	Ian Machado Garry	1839	34%	4
4	Sean Brady	1837	33%	2
5	Carlos Prates	1814	31%	3
6	Gabriel Bonfim	1810	30%	6
7	Jacobe Smith	1788	27%	10
8	Mike Malott	1786	27%	9
9	Rinat Fakhretdinov	1785	27%	13
10	Kamaru Usman	1784	27%	11
11	Jack Della Maddalena	1758	24%	5
12	Belal Muhammad	1757	24%	7
13	Uros Medic	1753	24%	16
14	Daniil Donchenko	1750	23%	12
15	Yaroslav Amosov	1720	20%	14

Middleweight

#	Fighter	Predictive rating	Win chance vs #1 here	Resume board spot
1	Khamzat Chimaev	1928	50%	1
2	Sean Strickland	1886	44%	C
3	Dricus Du Plessis	1878	43%	2
4	Gregory Rodrigues	1788	31%	7
5	Nassourdine Imavov	1779	30%	4
6	Robert Whittaker	1769	29%	5
7	Ikram Aliskerov	1758	27%	12
8	Abus Magomedov	1757	27%	17
9	Israel Adesanya	1756	27%	25
10	Christian Leroy Duncan	1750	26%	10
11	Yousri Belgaroui	1743	26%	11
12	Caio Borralho	1737	25%	9
13	Joe Pyfer	1729	24%	6
14	Brendan Allen	1718	23%	3
15	Anthony Hernandez	1717	23%	8

Light Heavyweight

#	Fighter	Predictive rating	Win chance vs #1 here	Resume board spot
1	Carlos Ulberg	1890	50%	C
2	Volkan Oezdemir	1826	41%	6
3	Magomed Ankalaev	1824	41%	1
4	Navajo Stirling	1804	38%	5
5	Dominick Reyes	1800	37%	3
6	Johnny Walker	1774	34%	12
7	Reinier de Ridder	1764	33%	11
8	Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	1755	31%	9
9	Paulo Costa	1750	31%	2
10	Aleksandar Rakic	1725	28%	33
11	Jiri Prochazka	1706	26%	4
12	Bogdan Guskov	1696	25%	7
13	Jan Blachowicz	1677	23%	26
14	Khalil Rountree Jr.	1676	23%	8
15	Azamat Murzakanov	1654	20%	10

Heavyweight

#	Fighter	Predictive rating	Win chance vs #1 here	Resume board spot
1	Tom Aspinall	1985	50%	R
2	Ciryl Gane	1905	39%	C
3	Alexander Volkov	1893	37%	1
4	Alex Pereira	1861	33%	4
5	Sergei Pavlovich	1844	31%	6
6	Josh Hokit	1792	25%	2
7	Curtis Blaydes	1767	22%	3
8	Waldo Cortes Acosta	1763	22%	5
9	Valter Walker	1724	18%	7
10	Vitor Petrino	1708	17%	12
11	Mario Pinto	1700	16%	8
12	Brando Pericic	1691	16%	10
13	Rizvan Kuniev	1689	15%	11
14	Anthony Wint	1633	12%	13
15	Serghei Spivac	1626	11%	22

Women's Strawweight

#	Fighter	Predictive rating	Win chance vs #1 here	Resume board spot
1	Zhang Weili	1840	50%	1
2	Fatima Kline	1746	37%	7
3	Alexia Thainara	1700	31%	9
4	Denise Gomes	1693	30%	8
5	Virna Jandiroba	1688	29%	3
6	Tatiana Suarez	1675	28%	2
7	Mackenzie Dern	1671	27%	C
8	Yan Xiaonan	1663	27%	16
9	Piera Rodriguez	1656	26%	13
10	Gillian Robertson	1648	25%	4
11	Tecia Pennington	1637	24%	15
12	Iasmin Lucindo	1631	23%	5
13	Loopy Godinez	1628	23%	6
14	Shanelle Dyer	1621	22%	14
15	Amanda Lemos	1615	22%	33

Women's Flyweight

#	Fighter	Predictive rating	Win chance vs #1 here	Resume board spot
1	Valentina Shevchenko	1825	50%	R
2	Natalia Silva	1775	43%	C
3	Manon Fiorot	1772	42%	2
4	Alexa Grasso	1744	39%	1
5	Erin Blanchfield	1733	37%	5
6	Wang Cong	1717	35%	9
7	Rose Namajunas	1702	33%	3
8	Carli Judice	1693	32%	10
9	Jasmine Jasudavicius	1667	29%	4
10	Maycee Barber	1637	25%	6
11	Miranda Maverick	1633	25%	11
12	Casey O'Neill	1608	22%	8
13	Dione Barbosa	1604	22%	12
14	Tracy Cortez	1603	22%	15
15	Katlyn Cerminara	1601	22%	7

Women's Bantamweight

#	Fighter	Predictive rating	Win chance vs #1 here	Resume board spot
1	Kayla Harrison	1735	50%	C
2	Joselyne Edwards	1691	44%	1
3	Ailin Perez	1685	43%	2
4	Norma Dumont	1673	41%	3
5	Luana Santos	1645	37%	4
6	Jacqueline Cavalcanti	1621	34%	5
7	Bia Mesquita	1615	33%	6
8	Karol Rosa	1600	31%	12
9	Julianna Pena	1600	31%	8
10	Yana Santos	1596	31%	7
11	Melissa Croden	1579	29%	16
12	Nora Cornolle	1577	29%	15
13	Alice Pereira	1571	28%	10
14	Michelle Montague	1570	28%	11
15	Nina Milosevic	1569	28%	13

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.