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Victor Valenzuela

Welterweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #37; v1.1 (shadow) #34

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 33-39: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,517, deviation 259: measured from 1 UFC bout; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290. Provisional: 1 UFC bout; the rating rests on little evidence.

Age 32 (born 1994-02-09) · Height unknown · Reach unknown · Stance unknown · 190 days since last bout (2026-04-25) · Last five 1-0 · Streak W1

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,517 is the division's 48th highest of 76 board fighters; the ledger stands at +0.0 (no quality wins or recent losses on the ledger); 0 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (1-0 last five). Score -0.06 = -0.11 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.05 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #37.

TermValueDetail
Score-0.0670% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term-0.11resume rating 1,517, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term+0.05quality ledger +0.0: +0.0 QW +0.0 proof -0.0 blowout -0.0 weak
Form penalty0.00last five 1-0
Quality wins, 15 years00 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placementscore order #37v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1#34score -0.06; score order #34

Rules, weights and worked examples: methodology.

All 1 UFC bout

DateEventOpponentOpp. official rankResultMethodRoundModel p
2026-04-25UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. ZalalMax GriffinunrankedWunanimous decision3 (5:00)33%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 76 board fighters at Welterweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute3.53(33rd percentile at Welterweight)
Significant strike accuracy45%(30th percentile at Welterweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes0.00(32nd percentile at Welterweight)
Share of wins by finish0%(10th percentile at Welterweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute2.67(29th percentile at Welterweight)
Significant strike defence55%(62nd percentile at Welterweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes0.00(42nd percentile at Welterweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career40(16th percentile at Welterweight)
KO/TKO losses0(37th percentile at Welterweight)
Submission losses0(66th percentile at Welterweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger0.000(39th percentile at Welterweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes1.00(54th percentile at Welterweight)
Takedown defence56%(31st percentile at Welterweight)
Share of cage time in control4%(18th percentile at Welterweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground6%(9th percentile at Welterweight)
Stylestriker (2.0 takedown attempts per 15 min; 4% control)
Career stage
Age32.7(51st percentile at Welterweight)
Age at UFC debut32.2(85th percentile at Welterweight)
Years since UFC debut0.5(17th percentile at Welterweight)
UFC bouts1(14th percentile at Welterweight)
Cage time, minutes15(20th percentile at Welterweight)
Bouts per year, last three years1.0(29th percentile at Welterweight)
Days since last bout190(74th percentile at Welterweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

C102030405020252026Oct 2023Oct 20262026-05-01: #41, Welterweight2026-05-08: #40, Welterweight2026-05-15: #42, Welterweight2026-05-29: #43, Welterweight2026-06-05: #41, Welterweight2026-06-13: #40, Welterweight2026-06-19: #40, Welterweight2026-06-26: #40, Welterweight2026-07-10: #41, Welterweight2026-07-17: #41, Welterweight2026-07-24: #41, Welterweight2026-07-31: #41, Welterweight2026-08-07: #42, Welterweight2026-08-14: #42, Welterweight2026-08-21: #41, Welterweight2026-08-28: #42, Welterweight2026-09-04: #42, Welterweight2026-09-11: #40, Welterweight2026-09-18: #39, Welterweight2026-09-25: #39, Welterweight2026-09-26: #39, Welterweight2026-10-03: #39, Welterweight2026-10-10: #38, Welterweight2026-10-17: #39, Welterweight2026-10-24: #38, Welterweight2026-10-31: #37, Welterweight#37

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 106 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

1,5501,600Apr 2026Oct 20262026-04-25: 1,552 (W vs Max Griffin)1,552

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

No trajectory index: it needs three decided UFC bouts and a bout within the last three years (config/decline.yaml).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.