Tommy McMillen

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 14-15: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,601, deviation 212: measured from 3 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290. Provisional: 3 UFC bouts; the rating rests on little evidence.

Age 28 (born 1997-12-15) · Height 6 ft 0 in (183 cm) · Reach 74 in (188 cm) · Stance Orthodox · 50 days since last bout (2026-09-12) · Last five 3-0 · Streak W3

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,601 is the division's 20th highest of 94 board fighters; the ledger stands at +0.0 (no quality wins or recent losses on the ledger); 0 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (3-0 last five). Score +0.28 = +0.20 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.08 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #14.

Term	Value	Detail
Score	+0.28	70% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term	+0.20	resume rating 1,601, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term	+0.08	quality ledger +0.0: +0.0 QW +0.0 proof -0.0 blowout -0.0 weak
Form penalty	0.00	last five 3-0
Quality wins, 15 years	0	0 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placement	score order #14	v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1	#12	score +0.27; score order #12

All 3 UFC bouts

Date	Event	Opponent	Opp. official rank	Result	Method	Round	Model p
2026-09-12	Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado	Marwan Rahiki	unranked	W	unanimous decision	3 (5:00)	56%
2026-07-18	UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman	Alberto Montes	unranked	W	KO/TKO	3 (3:29)	57%
2026-04-04	UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan	Manolo Zecchini	unranked	W	KO/TKO	1 (3:57)	58%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 94 board fighters at Featherweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute	12.80	(100th percentile at Featherweight)
Significant strike accuracy	47%	(44th percentile at Featherweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes	1.85	(95th percentile at Featherweight)
Share of wins by finish	67%	(62nd percentile at Featherweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute	4.78	(70th percentile at Featherweight)
Significant strike defence	60%	(78th percentile at Featherweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes	0.46	(65th percentile at Featherweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career	155	(50th percentile at Featherweight)
KO/TKO losses	0	(41st percentile at Featherweight)
Submission losses	0	(77th percentile at Featherweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger	0.000	(41st percentile at Featherweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes	2.31	(73rd percentile at Featherweight)
Takedown defence	50%	(26th percentile at Featherweight)
Share of cage time in control	18%	(66th percentile at Featherweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground	10%	(31st percentile at Featherweight)
Style	mixed (2.3 takedown attempts per 15 min; 18% control)
Career stage
Age	28.9	(24th percentile at Featherweight)
Age at UFC debut	28.3	(57th percentile at Featherweight)
Years since UFC debut	0.6	(19th percentile at Featherweight)
UFC bouts	3	(43rd percentile at Featherweight)
Cage time, minutes	32	(46th percentile at Featherweight)
Bouts per year, last three years	3.0	(98th percentile at Featherweight)
Days since last bout	50	(27th percentile at Featherweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 103 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

Recent performances run about 41 points ahead of the rating: fighters this age typically run 24 points ahead of their rating, and his own recent results put him a further 17 points ahead.

Component	Points	Meaning
Age component	+24	what fighters aged 28.9 typically run relative to their rating (population curve, all UFC bouts since 2011)
Own recent results	+17	his recency-weighted mean and trend over 3 bouts, shrunk toward zero; trend -0 points a year
Combined	+41	the rating's likely distance from his current performance level, in rating points
Reading	ahead of rating	ahead of, in line with (within 30 points), or behind the rating

Performance relative to the rating, by age

Each dot is one decided UFC bout at his age then: the performance score minus the rating's expectation, on the score's own scale from -1 to +1 (filled = win, hollow = loss; above zero is better than the rating implied; a finish as a slight favourite is about +0.45). The dashed line is the population curve for all fighters; the solid line is this fighter's own fitted level and trend as of the data date, weighted toward recent bouts. One unit sustained over many bouts corresponds to about 695 rating points; a single bout's residual is noisy.

Held-out evidence (walk-forward 2016 to 2026, EXP-2026-10-21-01): the age curve held in every test year; the individual component is a weak signal (correlation 0.06 with the next bout's residual; among fighters aged 33 or over, the lowest predicted quartile won 38% of next bouts against 53% expected, the highest 48% against 52%) and adds nothing to bout prediction beyond the shadow model. No board uses any of it: the rankings answer who has earned the place, not who wins next (EXP-2026-10-20-09). Method: src/mmalab/decline.py; settings: config/decline.yaml (expectation from the resume rating; one unit of residual is about 695 rating points).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.