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Theodor Berggren

Welterweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #63; v1.1 (shadow) #64

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 61-63: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,420, deviation 238: measured from 2 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290. Provisional: 2 UFC bouts; the rating rests on little evidence.

Age 26 (born 2000-04-09) · Height 5 ft 11 in (180 cm) · Reach 75 in (190 cm) · Stance Switch · 1 days since last bout (2026-10-31) · Last five 0-2 · Streak L2

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,420 is the division's 72nd highest of 76 board fighters; the ledger stands at -2.0 (less 2.0 for other losses outside the top 5; losses count for three years); 0 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (0-2 last five). Score -0.44 = -0.39 (rating term, 70% weight) -0.05 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #63.

TermValueDetail
Score-0.4470% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term-0.39resume rating 1,420, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term-0.05quality ledger -2.0: +0.0 QW +0.0 proof -0.0 blowout -2.0 weak
Form penalty0.00last five 0-2
Quality wins, 15 years00 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placementscore order #63v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1#64score -0.64; score order #64

Rules, weights and worked examples: methodology.

All 2 UFC bouts

DateEventOpponentOpp. official rankResultMethodRoundModel p
2026-10-31UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. NolanRodrigo SezinandounrankedLKO/TKO2 (5:00)55%
2026-06-27UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. TorresDaniil DonchenkounrankedLKO/TKO2 (1:35)31%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 76 board fighters at Welterweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute2.47(9th percentile at Welterweight)
Significant strike accuracy41%(9th percentile at Welterweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes0.00(32nd percentile at Welterweight)
Share of wins by finishn/a
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute6.03(92nd percentile at Welterweight)
Significant strike defence39%(5th percentile at Welterweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes1.81(96th percentile at Welterweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career100(32nd percentile at Welterweight)
KO/TKO losses2 (last 2026-10-31, 1 days ago)(87th percentile at Welterweight)
Submission losses0(66th percentile at Welterweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger0.508(99th percentile at Welterweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes0.00(24th percentile at Welterweight)
Takedown defence73%(67th percentile at Welterweight)
Share of cage time in control14%(50th percentile at Welterweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground24%(59th percentile at Welterweight)
Stylestriker (0.0 takedown attempts per 15 min; 14% control)
Career stage
Age26.6(7th percentile at Welterweight)
Age at UFC debut26.2(34th percentile at Welterweight)
Years since UFC debut0.3(11th percentile at Welterweight)
UFC bouts2(28th percentile at Welterweight)
Cage time, minutes17(22nd percentile at Welterweight)
Bouts per year, last three years2.0(82nd percentile at Welterweight)
Days since last bout1(9th percentile at Welterweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

C2040608020252026Oct 2023Oct 20262026-07-10: #61, Welterweight2026-07-17: #61, Welterweight2026-07-24: #61, Welterweight2026-07-31: #60, Welterweight2026-08-07: #60, Welterweight2026-08-14: #60, Welterweight2026-08-21: #59, Welterweight2026-08-28: #58, Welterweight2026-09-04: #58, Welterweight2026-09-11: #57, Welterweight2026-09-18: #56, Welterweight2026-09-25: #56, Welterweight2026-09-26: #56, Welterweight2026-10-03: #58, Welterweight2026-10-10: #58, Welterweight2026-10-17: #58, Welterweight2026-10-24: #57, Welterweight2026-10-31: #63, Welterweight#63

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 114 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

1,3501,4001,450Jun 2026Oct 20262026-06-27: 1,441 (L vs Daniil Donchenko)2026-10-31: 1,381 (L vs Rodrigo Sezinando)1,381

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

No trajectory index: it needs three decided UFC bouts and a bout within the last three years (config/decline.yaml).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.