Steven Asplund

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 18-20: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,543, deviation 202: measured from 3 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290. Provisional: 3 UFC bouts; the rating rests on little evidence.

Age 28 (born 1998-07-16) · Height 6 ft 5 in (196 cm) · Reach 78 in (198 cm) · Stance Orthodox · 85 days since last bout (2026-08-08) · Last five 2-1 · Streak W1

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,543 is the division's 26th highest of 55 board fighters; the ledger stands at -1.0 (less 1.0 for other losses outside the top 5; losses count for three years); 0 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (2-1 last five). Score +0.07 = +0.07 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.00 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #18.

Term	Value	Detail
Score	+0.07	70% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term	+0.07	resume rating 1,543, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term	+0.00	quality ledger -1.0: +0.0 QW +0.0 proof -0.0 blowout -1.0 weak
Form penalty	0.00	last five 2-1
Quality wins, 15 years	0	0 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placement	score order #18	v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1	#21	score -0.03; score order #21

All 3 UFC bouts

Date	Event	Opponent	Opp. official rank	Result	Method	Round	Model p
2026-08-08	UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld	Guilherme Pat	unranked	W	unanimous decision	3 (5:00)	56%
2026-03-14	UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos	Vitor Petrino	unranked	L	unanimous decision	3 (5:00)	42%
2025-12-13	UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape	Sean Sharaf	unranked	W	KO/TKO	2 (3:49)	59%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 55 board fighters at Heavyweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute	7.65	(93rd percentile at Heavyweight)
Significant strike accuracy	53%	(64th percentile at Heavyweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes	1.16	(82nd percentile at Heavyweight)
Share of wins by finish	50%	(41st percentile at Heavyweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute	5.23	(78th percentile at Heavyweight)
Significant strike defence	48%	(44th percentile at Heavyweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes	0.39	(62nd percentile at Heavyweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career	203	(58th percentile at Heavyweight)
KO/TKO losses	0	(36th percentile at Heavyweight)
Submission losses	0	(76th percentile at Heavyweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger	0.000	(36th percentile at Heavyweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes	0.00	(36th percentile at Heavyweight)
Takedown defence	100%	(100th percentile at Heavyweight)
Share of cage time in control	13%	(49th percentile at Heavyweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground	15%	(35th percentile at Heavyweight)
Style	striker (0.4 takedown attempts per 15 min; 13% control)
Career stage
Age	28.3	(12th percentile at Heavyweight)
Age at UFC debut	27.4	(30th percentile at Heavyweight)
Years since UFC debut	0.9	(27th percentile at Heavyweight)
UFC bouts	3	(44th percentile at Heavyweight)
Cage time, minutes	39	(53rd percentile at Heavyweight)
Bouts per year, last three years	3.0	(95th percentile at Heavyweight)
Days since last bout	85	(51st percentile at Heavyweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 93 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

Recent performances run about 35 points ahead of the rating: fighters this age typically run 29 points ahead of their rating, and his own recent results track that.

Component	Points	Meaning
Age component	+29	what fighters aged 28.3 typically run relative to their rating (population curve, all UFC bouts since 2011)
Own recent results	+6	his recency-weighted mean and trend over 3 bouts, shrunk toward zero; trend -0 points a year
Combined	+35	the rating's likely distance from his current performance level, in rating points
Reading	ahead of rating	ahead of, in line with (within 30 points), or behind the rating

Performance relative to the rating, by age

Each dot is one decided UFC bout at his age then: the performance score minus the rating's expectation, on the score's own scale from -1 to +1 (filled = win, hollow = loss; above zero is better than the rating implied; a finish as a slight favourite is about +0.45). The dashed line is the population curve for all fighters; the solid line is this fighter's own fitted level and trend as of the data date, weighted toward recent bouts. One unit sustained over many bouts corresponds to about 695 rating points; a single bout's residual is noisy.

Held-out evidence (walk-forward 2016 to 2026, EXP-2026-10-21-01): the age curve held in every test year; the individual component is a weak signal (correlation 0.06 with the next bout's residual; among fighters aged 33 or over, the lowest predicted quartile won 38% of next bouts against 53% expected, the highest 48% against 52%) and adds nothing to bout prediction beyond the shadow model. No board uses any of it: the rankings answer who has earned the place, not who wins next (EXP-2026-10-20-09). Method: src/mmalab/decline.py; settings: config/decline.yaml (expectation from the resume rating; one unit of residual is about 695 rating points).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.