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Shane Collins

Featherweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #33; v1.1 (shadow) #31

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 32-36: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,527, deviation 291: measured from 1 UFC bout; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290. Provisional: 1 UFC bout; the rating rests on little evidence.

Age 26 (born 2000-03-08) · Height 5 ft 9 in (175 cm) · Reach 71 in (180 cm) · Stance Orthodox · 134 days since last bout (2026-06-20) · Last five 1-0 · Streak W1

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,527 is the division's 50th highest of 94 board fighters; the ledger stands at +0.0 (no quality wins or recent losses on the ledger); 0 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (1-0 last five). Score +0.07 = -0.01 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.08 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #33.

TermValueDetail
Score+0.0770% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term-0.01resume rating 1,527, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term+0.08quality ledger +0.0: +0.0 QW +0.0 proof -0.0 blowout -0.0 weak
Form penalty0.00last five 1-0
Quality wins, 15 years00 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placementscore order #33v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1#31score +0.06; score order #31

Rules, weights and worked examples: methodology.

All 1 UFC bout

DateEventOpponentOpp. official rankResultMethodRoundModel p
2026-06-20UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. HoriguchiOtari TanziloviunrankedWunanimous decision3 (5:00)50%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 94 board fighters at Featherweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute5.07(74th percentile at Featherweight)
Significant strike accuracy55%(84th percentile at Featherweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes0.00(37th percentile at Featherweight)
Share of wins by finish0%(11th percentile at Featherweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute3.87(47th percentile at Featherweight)
Significant strike defence35%(3rd percentile at Featherweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes0.00(36th percentile at Featherweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career58(23rd percentile at Featherweight)
KO/TKO losses0(41st percentile at Featherweight)
Submission losses0(77th percentile at Featherweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger0.000(41st percentile at Featherweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes0.00(23rd percentile at Featherweight)
Takedown defence44%(21st percentile at Featherweight)
Share of cage time in control17%(64th percentile at Featherweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground13%(40th percentile at Featherweight)
Stylemixed (6.0 takedown attempts per 15 min; 17% control)
Career stage
Age26.7(11th percentile at Featherweight)
Age at UFC debut26.3(30th percentile at Featherweight)
Years since UFC debut0.4(10th percentile at Featherweight)
UFC bouts1(17th percentile at Featherweight)
Cage time, minutes15(24th percentile at Featherweight)
Bouts per year, last three years1.0(31st percentile at Featherweight)
Days since last bout134(57th percentile at Featherweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

C1020304020252026Oct 2023Oct 20262026-06-26: #38, Featherweight2026-07-10: #36, Featherweight2026-07-17: #36, Featherweight2026-07-24: #35, Featherweight2026-07-31: #35, Featherweight2026-08-07: #35, Featherweight2026-08-14: #34, Featherweight2026-08-21: #34, Featherweight2026-08-28: #33, Featherweight2026-09-04: #34, Featherweight2026-09-11: #35, Featherweight2026-09-18: #35, Featherweight2026-09-25: #35, Featherweight2026-09-26: #35, Featherweight2026-10-03: #35, Featherweight2026-10-10: #34, Featherweight2026-10-17: #34, Featherweight2026-10-24: #34, Featherweight2026-10-31: #33, Featherweight#33

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 113 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

1,5001,550Jun 2026Oct 20262026-06-20: 1,528 (W vs Otari Tanzilovi)1,528

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

No trajectory index: it needs three decided UFC bouts and a bout within the last three years (config/decline.yaml).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.