Sebastian Szalay

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 60-66: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,455, deviation 292: measured from 1 UFC bout; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290. Provisional: 1 UFC bout; the rating rests on little evidence.

Age 32 (born 1994-02-03) · Height 5 ft 6 in (168 cm) · Reach 66 in (168 cm) · Stance Orthodox · 274 days since last bout (2026-01-31) · Last five 0-1 · Streak L1

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,455 is the division's 79th highest of 94 board fighters; the ledger stands at -1.0 (less 1.0 for other losses outside the top 5; losses count for three years); 0 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (0-1 last five). Score -0.22 = -0.22 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.00 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #66.

Term	Value	Detail
Score	-0.22	70% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term	-0.22	resume rating 1,455, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term	+0.00	quality ledger -1.0: +0.0 QW +0.0 proof -0.0 blowout -1.0 weak
Form penalty	0.00	last five 0-1
Quality wins, 15 years	0	0 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placement	score order #66	v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1	#61	score -0.32; score order #61

All 1 UFC bout

Date	Event	Opponent	Opp. official rank	Result	Method	Round	Model p
2026-01-31	UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2	Keiichiro Nakamura	unranked	L	KO/TKO	3 (3:48)	50%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 94 board fighters at Featherweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute	5.72	(84th percentile at Featherweight)
Significant strike accuracy	39%	(19th percentile at Featherweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes	0.00	(37th percentile at Featherweight)
Share of wins by finish	n/a
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute	3.26	(35th percentile at Featherweight)
Significant strike defence	62%	(87th percentile at Featherweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes	1.09	(80th percentile at Featherweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career	45	(20th percentile at Featherweight)
KO/TKO losses	1 (last 2026-01-31, 274 days ago)	(74th percentile at Featherweight)
Submission losses	0	(77th percentile at Featherweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger	0.425	(98th percentile at Featherweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes	1.09	(51st percentile at Featherweight)
Takedown defence	n/a
Share of cage time in control	0%	(5th percentile at Featherweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground	1%	(9th percentile at Featherweight)
Style	striker (1.1 takedown attempts per 15 min; 0% control)
Career stage
Age	32.7	(64th percentile at Featherweight)
Age at UFC debut	32.0	(93rd percentile at Featherweight)
Years since UFC debut	0.8	(29th percentile at Featherweight)
UFC bouts	1	(17th percentile at Featherweight)
Cage time, minutes	14	(18th percentile at Featherweight)
Bouts per year, last three years	1.0	(31st percentile at Featherweight)
Days since last bout	274	(84th percentile at Featherweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 95 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

No trajectory index: it needs three decided UFC bouts and a bout within the last three years (config/decline.yaml).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.