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Sam Hughes

Women's Strawweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #27; v1.1 (shadow) #30

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 27-28: the 10th to 90th percentile of her position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,513, deviation 132: measured from 12 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290.

Age 34 (born 1992-06-28) · Height 5 ft 5 in (165 cm) · Reach 64 in (163 cm) · Stance Orthodox · 232 days since last bout (2026-03-14) · Last five 3-2 · Streak L1

Why she is ranked here

Rating 1,513 is the division's 31st highest of 49 board fighters; the ledger stands at -2.0 (less 2.0 for blowout losses; losses count for three years); 0 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (3-2 last five). Score -0.15 = -0.10 (rating term, 70% weight) -0.05 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put her at #27.

TermValueDetail
Score-0.1570% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term-0.10resume rating 1,513, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term-0.05quality ledger -2.0: +0.0 QW +0.0 proof -2.0 blowout -0.0 weak
Form penalty0.00last five 3-2
Quality wins, 15 years00 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placementscore order #27v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1#30score -0.35; score order #30

Rules, weights and worked examples: methodology.

Last ten bouts

DateEventOpponentOpp. official rankResultMethodRoundModel p
2026-03-14UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. VallejosPiera RodriguezunrankedLunanimous decision3 (5:00)49%
2025-09-06UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. BorralhoShauna BannonunrankedWsubmission2 (1:58)51%
2025-03-15UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2Stephanie LucianounrankedWsplit decision3 (5:00)47%
2024-08-03UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. NurmagomedovViktoriia DudakovaunrankedWsplit decision3 (5:00)41%
2024-02-24UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2Yazmin JaureguiunrankedLunanimous decision3 (5:00)54%
2023-04-08UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2Jaqueline AmorimunrankedWunanimous decision3 (5:00)48%
2022-10-15UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. AraujoPiera RodriguezunrankedLunanimous decision3 (5:00)46%
2022-05-21UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. VieiraElise ReedunrankedWKO/TKO3 (3:52)47%
2022-04-16UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. MuhammadIstela NunesunrankedWmajority decision3 (5:00)39%
2021-11-20UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. TateLuana PinheirounrankedLunanimous decision3 (5:00)29%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for her (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 49 board fighters at Women's Strawweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute4.41(55th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Significant strike accuracy48%(53rd percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes0.00(49th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Share of wins by finish33%(49th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute4.69(63rd percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Significant strike defence58%(69th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes0.09(57th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career754(86th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
KO/TKO losses1 (last 2020-12-12, 2,150 days ago)(88th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Submission losses0(63rd percentile at Women's Strawweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger0.048(69th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes1.12(53rd percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Takedown defence63%(47th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Share of cage time in control27%(67th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground24%(65th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Stylemixed (3.8 takedown attempts per 15 min; 27% control)
Career stage
Age34.3(71st percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Age at UFC debut28.5(56th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Years since UFC debut5.9(69th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
UFC bouts12(76th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Cage time, minutes161(76th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Bouts per year, last three years1.7(63rd percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Days since last bout232(78th percentile at Women's Strawweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

C1020304020252026Oct 2023Oct 20262023-10-06: #33, Women's Strawweight2023-10-13: #35, Women's Strawweight2023-10-20: #35, Women's Strawweight2023-11-03: #34, Women's Strawweight2023-11-10: #36, Women's Strawweight2023-11-17: #35, Women's Strawweight2023-12-01: #36, Women's Strawweight2023-12-08: #35, Women's Strawweight2023-12-15: #35, Women's Strawweight2024-01-12: #35, Women's Strawweight2024-01-19: #35, Women's Strawweight2024-02-02: #33, Women's Strawweight2024-02-09: #33, Women's Strawweight2024-02-16: #32, Women's Strawweight2024-02-23: #32, Women's Strawweight2024-03-01: #36, Women's Strawweight2024-03-08: #36, Women's Strawweight2024-03-15: #36, Women's Strawweight2024-03-22: #36, Women's Strawweight2024-03-29: #35, Women's Strawweight2024-04-05: #35, Women's Strawweight2024-04-12: #35, Women's Strawweight2024-04-26: #35, Women's Strawweight2024-05-03: #34, Women's Strawweight2024-05-10: #33, Women's Strawweight2024-05-17: #34, Women's Strawweight2024-05-31: #34, Women's Strawweight2024-06-07: #34, Women's Strawweight2024-06-14: #34, Women's Strawweight2024-06-21: #34, Women's Strawweight2024-06-28: #34, Women's Strawweight2024-07-12: #34, Women's Strawweight2024-07-19: #34, Women's Strawweight2024-07-26: #34, Women's Strawweight2024-08-02: #37, Women's Strawweight2024-08-09: #37, Women's Strawweight2024-08-16: #38, Women's Strawweight2024-08-23: #38, Women's Strawweight2024-09-06: #38, Women's Strawweight2024-09-13: #37, Women's Strawweight2024-09-27: #37, Women's Strawweight2024-10-04: #37, Women's Strawweight2024-10-11: #38, Women's Strawweight2024-10-18: #37, Women's Strawweight2024-10-25: #37, Women's Strawweight2024-11-01: #37, Women's Strawweight2024-11-08: #37, Women's Strawweight2024-11-15: #36, Women's Strawweight2024-11-22: #33, Women's Strawweight2024-12-06: #35, Women's Strawweight2024-12-13: #34, Women's Strawweight2025-01-10: #35, Women's Strawweight2025-01-17: #35, Women's Strawweight2025-01-31: #34, Women's Strawweight2025-02-07: #34, Women's Strawweight2025-02-14: #34, Women's Strawweight2025-02-21: #34, Women's Strawweight2025-02-28: #34, Women's Strawweight2025-03-07: #33, Women's Strawweight2025-03-14: #33, Women's Strawweight2025-03-21: #32, Women's Strawweight2025-03-28: #32, Women's Strawweight2025-04-04: #32, Women's Strawweight2025-04-11: #33, Women's Strawweight2025-04-25: #33, Women's Strawweight2025-05-02: #33, Women's Strawweight2025-05-09: #33, Women's Strawweight2025-05-16: #32, Women's Strawweight2025-05-30: #32, Women's Strawweight2025-06-06: #33, Women's Strawweight2025-06-13: #33, Women's Strawweight2025-06-20: #33, Women's Strawweight2025-06-27: #33, Women's Strawweight2025-07-11: #33, Women's Strawweight2025-07-18: #31, Women's Strawweight2025-07-25: #31, Women's Strawweight2025-08-01: #31, Women's Strawweight2025-08-08: #30, Women's Strawweight2025-08-15: #30, Women's Strawweight2025-08-22: #31, Women's Strawweight2025-09-05: #31, Women's Strawweight2025-09-12: #20, Women's Strawweight2025-09-26: #20, Women's Strawweight2025-10-03: #20, Women's Strawweight2025-10-10: #20, Women's Strawweight2025-10-17: #19, Women's Strawweight2025-10-24: #18, Women's Strawweight2025-10-31: #19, Women's Strawweight2025-11-07: #19, Women's Strawweight2025-11-14: #18, Women's Strawweight2025-11-21: #18, Women's Strawweight2025-12-05: #18, Women's Strawweight2025-12-12: #18, Women's Strawweight2026-01-23: #18, Women's Strawweight2026-01-30: #18, Women's Strawweight2026-02-06: #18, Women's Strawweight2026-02-20: #18, Women's Strawweight2026-02-27: #18, Women's Strawweight2026-03-06: #18, Women's Strawweight2026-03-13: #18, Women's Strawweight2026-03-20: #25, Women's Strawweight2026-03-27: #26, Women's Strawweight2026-04-03: #25, Women's Strawweight2026-04-10: #25, Women's Strawweight2026-04-17: #25, Women's Strawweight2026-04-24: #25, Women's Strawweight2026-05-01: #24, Women's Strawweight2026-05-08: #24, Women's Strawweight2026-05-15: #24, Women's Strawweight2026-05-29: #25, Women's Strawweight2026-06-05: #25, Women's Strawweight2026-06-13: #25, Women's Strawweight2026-06-19: #25, Women's Strawweight2026-06-26: #25, Women's Strawweight2026-07-10: #25, Women's Strawweight2026-07-17: #25, Women's Strawweight2026-07-24: #25, Women's Strawweight2026-07-31: #25, Women's Strawweight2026-08-07: #25, Women's Strawweight2026-08-14: #25, Women's Strawweight2026-08-21: #25, Women's Strawweight2026-08-28: #25, Women's Strawweight2026-09-04: #26, Women's Strawweight2026-09-11: #27, Women's Strawweight2026-09-18: #27, Women's Strawweight2026-09-25: #27, Women's Strawweight2026-09-26: #29, Women's Strawweight2026-10-03: #29, Women's Strawweight2026-10-10: #28, Women's Strawweight2026-10-17: #27, Women's Strawweight2026-10-24: #27, Women's Strawweight2026-10-31: #27, Women's Strawweight#27

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better).

Predictive rating by bout

1,4001,4501,5001,5501,6002022202320242025Dec 2020Oct 20262020-12-12: 1,434 (L vs Tecia Pennington)2021-05-01: 1,413 (L vs Loma Lookboonmee)2021-11-20: 1,416 (L vs Luana Pinheiro)2022-04-16: 1,434 (W vs Istela Nunes)2022-05-21: 1,510 (W vs Elise Reed)2022-10-15: 1,485 (L vs Piera Rodriguez)2023-04-08: 1,521 (W vs Jaqueline Amorim)2024-02-24: 1,499 (L vs Yazmin Jauregui)2024-08-03: 1,533 (W vs Viktoriia Dudakova)2025-03-15: 1,544 (W vs Stephanie Luciano)2025-09-06: 1,585 (W vs Shauna Bannon)2026-03-14: 1,549 (L vs Piera Rodriguez)1,549

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

Recent performances are in line with the rating (-8 points).

ComponentPointsMeaning
Age component-20what fighters aged 34.3 typically run relative to their rating (population curve, all UFC bouts since 2011)
Own recent results+12her recency-weighted mean and trend over 12 bouts, shrunk toward zero; trend +1 points a year
Combined-8the rating's likely distance from her current performance level, in rating points
Readingin line with ratingahead of, in line with (within 30 points), or behind the rating

Performance relative to the rating, by age

-1.0-0.5+0.0+0.5+1.02728293031323334352020-12-12 (age 28.5): L vs Tecia Pennington, residual -0.342021-05-01 (age 28.8): L vs Loma Lookboonmee, residual -0.052021-11-20 (age 29.4): L vs Luana Pinheiro, residual -0.132022-04-16 (age 29.8): W vs Istela Nunes, residual +0.122022-05-21 (age 29.9): W vs Elise Reed, residual +0.552022-10-15 (age 30.3): L vs Piera Rodriguez, residual -0.102023-04-08 (age 30.8): W vs Jaqueline Amorim, residual +0.212024-02-24 (age 31.7): L vs Yazmin Jauregui, residual -0.242024-08-03 (age 32.1): W vs Viktoriia Dudakova, residual +0.162025-03-15 (age 32.7): W vs Stephanie Luciano, residual +0.152025-09-06 (age 33.2): W vs Shauna Bannon, residual +0.592026-03-14 (age 33.7): L vs Piera Rodriguez, residual -0.34-0.01

Each dot is one decided UFC bout at her age then: the performance score minus the rating's expectation, on the score's own scale from -1 to +1 (filled = win, hollow = loss; above zero is better than the rating implied; a finish as a slight favourite is about +0.45). The dashed line is the population curve for all fighters; the solid line is this fighter's own fitted level and trend as of the data date, weighted toward recent bouts. One unit sustained over many bouts corresponds to about 695 rating points; a single bout's residual is noisy.

Held-out evidence (walk-forward 2016 to 2026, EXP-2026-10-21-01): the age curve held in every test year; the individual component is a weak signal (correlation 0.06 with the next bout's residual; among fighters aged 33 or over, the lowest predicted quartile won 38% of next bouts against 53% expected, the highest 48% against 52%) and adds nothing to bout prediction beyond the shadow model. No board uses any of it: the rankings answer who has earned the place, not who wins next (EXP-2026-10-20-09). Method: src/mmalab/decline.py; settings: config/decline.yaml (expectation from the resume rating; one unit of residual is about 695 rating points).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like her, not a forecast for her; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.