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Rafael Cerqueira

Light Heavyweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #35; v1.1 (shadow) #32

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 34-38: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,455, deviation 292: measured from 1 UFC bout; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290. Provisional: 1 UFC bout; the rating rests on little evidence.

Age 36 (born 1990-03-15) · Height 6 ft 3 in (190 cm) · Reach 76 in (193 cm) · Stance Southpaw · 344 days since last bout (2025-11-22) · Last five 0-1 · Streak L1

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,455 is the division's 43rd highest of 51 board fighters; the ledger stands at -1.0 (less 1.0 for blowout losses; losses count for three years); 0 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (0-1 last five). Score -0.26 = -0.26 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.00 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #35.

TermValueDetail
Score-0.2670% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term-0.26resume rating 1,455, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term+0.00quality ledger -1.0: +0.0 QW +0.0 proof -1.0 blowout -0.0 weak
Form penalty0.00last five 0-1
Quality wins, 15 years00 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placementscore order #35v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1#32score -0.36; score order #31; placement rules -> #32

Rules, weights and worked examples: methodology.

All 1 UFC bout

DateEventOpponentOpp. official rankResultMethodRoundModel p
2025-11-22UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. HookerAbdul Rakhman YakhyaevunrankedLsubmission1 (0:33)50%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 51 board fighters at Light Heavyweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute0.00(2nd percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Significant strike accuracy0%(2nd percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes0.00(25th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Share of wins by finishn/a
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute10.91(98th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Significant strike defence40%(16th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes27.27(100th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career6(4th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
KO/TKO losses0(31st percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Submission losses1(86th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger0.000(33rd percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes0.00(31st percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Takedown defence0%(4th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Share of cage time in control0%(4th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the groundn/a
Stylestriker (0.0 takedown attempts per 15 min; 0% control)
Career stage
Age36.6(81st percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Age at UFC debut35.7(100th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Years since UFC debut0.9(25th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
UFC bouts1(14th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Cage time, minutes1(2nd percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Bouts per year, last three years1.0(24th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Days since last bout344(86th percentile at Light Heavyweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

C1020304020252026Oct 2023Oct 20262025-12-05: #34, Light Heavyweight2025-12-12: #34, Light Heavyweight2026-01-23: #34, Light Heavyweight2026-01-30: #34, Light Heavyweight2026-02-06: #33, Light Heavyweight2026-02-20: #34, Light Heavyweight2026-02-27: #34, Light Heavyweight2026-03-06: #34, Light Heavyweight2026-03-13: #36, Light Heavyweight2026-03-20: #36, Light Heavyweight2026-03-27: #36, Light Heavyweight2026-04-03: #34, Light Heavyweight2026-04-10: #34, Light Heavyweight2026-04-17: #33, Light Heavyweight2026-04-24: #34, Light Heavyweight2026-05-01: #34, Light Heavyweight2026-05-08: #33, Light Heavyweight2026-05-15: #33, Light Heavyweight2026-05-29: #31, Light Heavyweight2026-06-05: #31, Light Heavyweight2026-06-13: #31, Light Heavyweight2026-06-19: #31, Light Heavyweight2026-06-26: #31, Light Heavyweight2026-07-10: #30, Light Heavyweight2026-07-17: #30, Light Heavyweight2026-07-24: #31, Light Heavyweight2026-07-31: #33, Light Heavyweight2026-08-07: #33, Light Heavyweight2026-08-14: #34, Light Heavyweight2026-08-21: #34, Light Heavyweight2026-08-28: #34, Light Heavyweight2026-09-04: #35, Light Heavyweight2026-09-11: #34, Light Heavyweight2026-09-18: #34, Light Heavyweight2026-09-25: #34, Light Heavyweight2026-09-26: #37, Light Heavyweight2026-10-03: #37, Light Heavyweight2026-10-10: #37, Light Heavyweight2026-10-17: #37, Light Heavyweight2026-10-24: #35, Light Heavyweight2026-10-31: #35, Light Heavyweight#35

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 91 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

1,4001,450Nov 2025Oct 20262025-11-22: 1,402 (L vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev)1,402

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

No trajectory index: it needs three decided UFC bouts and a bout within the last three years (config/decline.yaml).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.