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Patricio Freire

Featherweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #51; v1.1 (shadow) #39

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 42-55: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,484, deviation 228: measured from 2 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290. Provisional: 2 UFC bouts; the rating rests on little evidence.

Age 39 (born 1987-07-07) · Height 5 ft 6 in (168 cm) · Reach 67 in (170 cm) · Stance Orthodox · 470 days since last bout (2025-07-19) · Last five 1-1 · Streak W1

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,484 is the division's 71st highest of 94 board fighters after an inactivity penalty of 30 points for 470 days without a bout; the ledger stands at -0.5 (+0.5 from quality wins, less 1.0 for blowout losses; losses count for three years); 1 quality win in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (1-1 last five). Score -0.09 = -0.13 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.04 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #51.

TermValueDetail
Score-0.0970% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term-0.13resume rating 1,484 (raw 1,514 less inactivity penalty 30), scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term+0.04quality ledger -0.5: +0.5 QW +0.0 proof -1.0 blowout -0.0 weak
Form penalty0.00last five 1-1
Quality wins, 15 years10 over top-10 opponents, 1 over top-15
Placementscore order #51v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1#39score -0.05; score order #38; placement rules -> #39

Rules, weights and worked examples: methodology.

All 2 UFC bouts

DateEventOpponentOpp. official rankResultMethodRoundModel p
2025-07-19UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3Dan Ige#11Wunanimous decision3 (5:00)24%
2025-04-12UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. LopesYair Rodriguez#5Lunanimous decision3 (5:00)27%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 94 board fighters at Featherweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute2.40(17th percentile at Featherweight)
Significant strike accuracy49%(60th percentile at Featherweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes0.00(37th percentile at Featherweight)
Share of wins by finish0%(11th percentile at Featherweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute3.90(48th percentile at Featherweight)
Significant strike defence52%(44th percentile at Featherweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes0.50(67th percentile at Featherweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career117(41st percentile at Featherweight)
KO/TKO losses0(41st percentile at Featherweight)
Submission losses0(77th percentile at Featherweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger0.000(41st percentile at Featherweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes3.00(84th percentile at Featherweight)
Takedown defence0%(9th percentile at Featherweight)
Share of cage time in control13%(50th percentile at Featherweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground18%(55th percentile at Featherweight)
Stylemixed (6.5 takedown attempts per 15 min; 13% control)
Career stage
Age39.3(97th percentile at Featherweight)
Age at UFC debut37.8(100th percentile at Featherweight)
Years since UFC debut1.6(38th percentile at Featherweight)
UFC bouts2(31st percentile at Featherweight)
Cage time, minutes30(45th percentile at Featherweight)
Bouts per year, last three years1.3(33rd percentile at Featherweight)
Days since last bout470(97th percentile at Featherweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

C20406020252026Oct 2023Oct 20262025-04-25: #53, Featherweight2025-05-02: #54, Featherweight2025-05-09: #54, Featherweight2025-05-16: #54, Featherweight2025-05-30: #55, Featherweight2025-06-06: #55, Featherweight2025-06-13: #56, Featherweight2025-06-20: #55, Featherweight2025-06-27: #55, Featherweight2025-07-11: #54, Featherweight2025-07-18: #54, Featherweight2025-07-25: #44, Featherweight2025-08-01: #45, Featherweight2025-08-08: #43, Featherweight2025-08-15: #43, Featherweight2025-08-22: #43, Featherweight2025-09-05: #43, Featherweight2025-09-12: #43, Featherweight2025-09-26: #42, Featherweight2025-10-03: #42, Featherweight2025-10-10: #41, Featherweight2025-10-17: #42, Featherweight2025-10-24: #41, Featherweight2025-10-31: #40, Featherweight2025-11-07: #39, Featherweight2025-11-14: #38, Featherweight2025-11-21: #39, Featherweight2025-12-05: #39, Featherweight2025-12-12: #37, Featherweight2026-01-23: #34, Featherweight2026-01-30: #35, Featherweight2026-02-06: #35, Featherweight2026-02-20: #35, Featherweight2026-02-27: #35, Featherweight2026-03-06: #36, Featherweight2026-03-13: #36, Featherweight2026-03-20: #38, Featherweight2026-03-27: #37, Featherweight2026-04-03: #38, Featherweight2026-04-10: #39, Featherweight2026-04-17: #39, Featherweight2026-04-24: #40, Featherweight2026-05-01: #40, Featherweight2026-05-08: #40, Featherweight2026-05-15: #40, Featherweight2026-05-29: #40, Featherweight2026-06-05: #41, Featherweight2026-06-13: #40, Featherweight2026-06-19: #40, Featherweight2026-06-26: #43, Featherweight2026-07-10: #42, Featherweight2026-07-17: #42, Featherweight2026-07-24: #43, Featherweight2026-07-31: #44, Featherweight2026-08-07: #42, Featherweight2026-08-14: #41, Featherweight2026-08-21: #42, Featherweight2026-08-28: #41, Featherweight2026-09-04: #41, Featherweight2026-09-11: #45, Featherweight2026-09-18: #46, Featherweight2026-09-25: #46, Featherweight2026-09-26: #47, Featherweight2026-10-03: #48, Featherweight2026-10-10: #47, Featherweight2026-10-17: #49, Featherweight2026-10-24: #51, Featherweight2026-10-31: #51, Featherweight#51

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 64 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

1,4501,5001,5501,6002026Apr 2025Oct 20262025-04-12: 1,471 (L vs Yair Rodriguez)2025-07-19: 1,560 (W vs Dan Ige)1,560

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

No trajectory index: it needs three decided UFC bouts and a bout within the last three years (config/decline.yaml).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.