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Montserrat Conejo Ruiz

Women's Strawweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #47; v1.1 (shadow) #47

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 47-47: the 10th to 90th percentile of her position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights (the position does not depend on the weights). Rating 1,368, deviation 190: measured from 5 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290.

Age 33 (born 1993-02-03) · Height 5 ft 0 in (152 cm) · Reach 61 in (155 cm) · Stance Southpaw · 365 days since last bout (2025-11-01) · Last five 1-4 · Streak L4

Why she is ranked here

Rating 1,368 is the division's 49th highest of 49 board fighters; the ledger stands at -2.0 (less 1.0 for blowout losses, less 1.0 for other losses outside the top 5; losses count for three years); 0 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; form penalty 0.60 for a 1-4 last five. Score -1.22 = -0.57 (rating term, 70% weight) -0.05 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.60 (form penalty); score order put her at #47.

TermValueDetail
Score-1.2270% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term-0.57resume rating 1,368, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term-0.05quality ledger -2.0: +0.0 QW +0.0 proof -1.0 blowout -1.0 weak
Form penalty0.60last five 1-4
Quality wins, 15 years00 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placementscore order #47v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1#47score -1.22; score order #47

Rules, weights and worked examples: methodology.

All 5 UFC bouts

DateEventOpponentOpp. official rankResultMethodRoundModel p
2025-11-01UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. OnamaAlice ArdeleanunrankedLunanimous decision3 (5:00)24%
2023-11-04UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. LewisEduarda MouraunrankedLKO/TKO2 (2:14)32%
2023-08-12UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos AnjosJaqueline AmorimunrankedLKO/TKO3 (3:41)53%
2021-07-17UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. MoisesAmanda Lemos#14LKO/TKO1 (0:35)32%
2021-03-20UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. HollandCheyanne VlismasunrankedWunanimous decision3 (5:00)50%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for her (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 49 board fighters at Women's Strawweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute2.21(2nd percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Significant strike accuracy29%(4th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes0.00(49th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Share of wins by finish0%(19th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute6.19(90th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Significant strike defence44%(14th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes0.29(88th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career319(51st percentile at Women's Strawweight)
KO/TKO losses3 (last 2023-11-04, 1,093 days ago)(96th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Submission losses0(63rd percentile at Women's Strawweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger0.297(96th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes1.75(63rd percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Takedown defence44%(18th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Share of cage time in control27%(69th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground4%(6th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Stylemixed (3.5 takedown attempts per 15 min; 27% control)
Career stage
Age33.7(62nd percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Age at UFC debut28.1(48th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Years since UFC debut5.6(67th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
UFC bouts5(41st percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Cage time, minutes52(33rd percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Bouts per year, last three years0.7(6th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Days since last bout365(84th percentile at Women's Strawweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

C20406020252026Oct 2023Oct 20262023-10-06: #39, Women's Strawweight2023-10-13: #39, Women's Strawweight2023-10-20: #39, Women's Strawweight2023-11-03: #39, Women's Strawweight2023-11-10: #44, Women's Strawweight2023-11-17: #44, Women's Strawweight2023-12-01: #45, Women's Strawweight2023-12-08: #44, Women's Strawweight2023-12-15: #45, Women's Strawweight2024-01-12: #45, Women's Strawweight2024-01-19: #45, Women's Strawweight2024-02-02: #43, Women's Strawweight2024-02-09: #43, Women's Strawweight2024-02-16: #43, Women's Strawweight2024-02-23: #43, Women's Strawweight2024-03-01: #43, Women's Strawweight2024-03-08: #42, Women's Strawweight2024-03-15: #42, Women's Strawweight2024-03-22: #42, Women's Strawweight2024-03-29: #41, Women's Strawweight2024-04-05: #41, Women's Strawweight2024-04-12: #41, Women's Strawweight2024-04-26: #41, Women's Strawweight2024-05-03: #42, Women's Strawweight2024-05-10: #40, Women's Strawweight2024-05-17: #41, Women's Strawweight2024-05-31: #42, Women's Strawweight2024-06-07: #42, Women's Strawweight2024-06-14: #42, Women's Strawweight2024-06-21: #42, Women's Strawweight2024-06-28: #42, Women's Strawweight2024-07-12: #42, Women's Strawweight2024-07-19: #41, Women's Strawweight2024-07-26: #41, Women's Strawweight2024-08-02: #43, Women's Strawweight2024-08-09: #43, Women's Strawweight2024-08-16: #44, Women's Strawweight2024-08-23: #44, Women's Strawweight2024-09-06: #44, Women's Strawweight2024-09-13: #44, Women's Strawweight2024-09-27: #44, Women's Strawweight2024-10-04: #43, Women's Strawweight2024-10-11: #44, Women's Strawweight2024-10-18: #44, Women's Strawweight2024-10-25: #47, Women's Strawweight2024-11-01: #47, Women's Strawweight2024-11-08: #47, Women's Strawweight2024-11-15: #47, Women's Strawweight2024-11-22: #47, Women's Strawweight2024-12-06: #49, Women's Strawweight2024-12-13: #49, Women's Strawweight2025-01-10: #50, Women's Strawweight2025-01-17: #51, Women's Strawweight2025-01-31: #50, Women's Strawweight2025-02-07: #50, Women's Strawweight2025-02-14: #51, Women's Strawweight2025-02-21: #51, Women's Strawweight2025-02-28: #51, Women's Strawweight2025-03-07: #51, Women's Strawweight2025-03-14: #51, Women's Strawweight2025-03-21: #50, Women's Strawweight2025-03-28: #50, Women's Strawweight2025-04-04: #49, Women's Strawweight2025-04-11: #48, Women's Strawweight2025-04-25: #48, Women's Strawweight2025-11-07: #52, Women's Strawweight2025-11-14: #51, Women's Strawweight2025-11-21: #51, Women's Strawweight2025-12-05: #51, Women's Strawweight2025-12-12: #51, Women's Strawweight2026-01-23: #50, Women's Strawweight2026-01-30: #50, Women's Strawweight2026-02-06: #50, Women's Strawweight2026-02-20: #50, Women's Strawweight2026-02-27: #50, Women's Strawweight2026-03-06: #50, Women's Strawweight2026-03-13: #49, Women's Strawweight2026-03-20: #49, Women's Strawweight2026-03-27: #50, Women's Strawweight2026-04-03: #49, Women's Strawweight2026-04-10: #48, Women's Strawweight2026-04-17: #47, Women's Strawweight2026-04-24: #47, Women's Strawweight2026-05-01: #47, Women's Strawweight2026-05-08: #47, Women's Strawweight2026-05-15: #47, Women's Strawweight2026-05-29: #46, Women's Strawweight2026-06-05: #47, Women's Strawweight2026-06-13: #46, Women's Strawweight2026-06-19: #46, Women's Strawweight2026-06-26: #46, Women's Strawweight2026-07-10: #45, Women's Strawweight2026-07-17: #45, Women's Strawweight2026-07-24: #45, Women's Strawweight2026-07-31: #45, Women's Strawweight2026-08-07: #46, Women's Strawweight2026-08-14: #47, Women's Strawweight2026-08-21: #47, Women's Strawweight2026-08-28: #47, Women's Strawweight2026-09-04: #47, Women's Strawweight2026-09-11: #49, Women's Strawweight2026-09-18: #47, Women's Strawweight2026-09-25: #47, Women's Strawweight2026-09-26: #49, Women's Strawweight2026-10-03: #49, Women's Strawweight2026-10-10: #49, Women's Strawweight2026-10-17: #49, Women's Strawweight2026-10-24: #50, Women's Strawweight2026-10-31: #47, Women's Strawweight#47

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 23 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

1,3001,3501,4001,4501,5001,550202320242025Mar 2021Oct 20262021-03-20: 1,517 (W vs Cheyanne Vlismas)2021-07-17: 1,454 (L vs Amanda Lemos)2023-08-12: 1,369 (L vs Jaqueline Amorim)2023-11-04: 1,309 (L vs Eduarda Moura)2025-11-01: 1,335 (L vs Alice Ardelean)1,335

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

Recent performances are in line with the rating (-28 points).

ComponentPointsMeaning
Age component-10what fighters aged 33.7 typically run relative to their rating (population curve, all UFC bouts since 2011)
Own recent results-18her recency-weighted mean and trend over 5 bouts, shrunk toward zero; trend -1 points a year
Combined-28the rating's likely distance from her current performance level, in rating points
Readingin line with ratingahead of, in line with (within 30 points), or behind the rating

Performance relative to the rating, by age

-1.0-0.5+0.0+0.5+1.02728293031323334352021-03-20 (age 28.1): W vs Cheyanne Vlismas, residual +0.132021-07-17 (age 28.4): L vs Amanda Lemos, residual -0.392023-08-12 (age 30.5): L vs Jaqueline Amorim, residual -0.452023-11-04 (age 30.7): L vs Eduarda Moura, residual -0.372025-11-01 (age 32.7): L vs Alice Ardelean, residual -0.24-0.04

Each dot is one decided UFC bout at her age then: the performance score minus the rating's expectation, on the score's own scale from -1 to +1 (filled = win, hollow = loss; above zero is better than the rating implied; a finish as a slight favourite is about +0.45). The dashed line is the population curve for all fighters; the solid line is this fighter's own fitted level and trend as of the data date, weighted toward recent bouts. One unit sustained over many bouts corresponds to about 695 rating points; a single bout's residual is noisy.

Held-out evidence (walk-forward 2016 to 2026, EXP-2026-10-21-01): the age curve held in every test year; the individual component is a weak signal (correlation 0.06 with the next bout's residual; among fighters aged 33 or over, the lowest predicted quartile won 38% of next bouts against 53% expected, the highest 48% against 52%) and adds nothing to bout prediction beyond the shadow model. No board uses any of it: the rankings answer who has earned the place, not who wins next (EXP-2026-10-20-09). Method: src/mmalab/decline.py; settings: config/decline.yaml (expectation from the resume rating; one unit of residual is about 695 rating points).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like her, not a forecast for her; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.