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Melissa Croden

Women's Bantamweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #16; v1.1 (shadow) #16

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 15-16: the 10th to 90th percentile of her position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,515, deviation 177: measured from 4 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290.

Age 35 (born 1991-04-12) · Height unknown · Reach unknown · Stance unknown · 15 days since last bout (2026-10-17) · Last five 2-2 · Streak L1

Why she is ranked here

Rating 1,515 is the division's 17th highest of 24 board fighters; the ledger stands at -2.0 (less 1.0 for blowout losses, less 1.0 for other losses outside the top 5; losses count for three years); 0 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (2-2 last five). Score -0.29 = -0.19 (rating term, 70% weight) -0.10 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put her at #16.

TermValueDetail
Score-0.2970% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term-0.19resume rating 1,515, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term-0.10quality ledger -2.0: +0.0 QW +0.0 proof -1.0 blowout -1.0 weak
Form penalty0.00last five 2-2
Quality wins, 15 years00 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placementscore order #16v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1#16score -0.47; score order #16

Rules, weights and worked examples: methodology.

All 4 UFC bouts

DateEventOpponentOpp. official rankResultMethodRoundModel p
2026-10-17UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. MalottChelsea ChandlerunrankedLsubmission1 (4:52)71%
2026-04-18UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. MalottDaria ZhelezniakovaunrankedWunanimous decision3 (5:00)47%
2025-12-13UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. KapeLuana Santos#15Lunanimous decision3 (5:00)47%
2025-10-18UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. AllenTainara LisboaunrankedWKO/TKO3 (4:32)54%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for her (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 24 board fighters at Women's Bantamweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute4.07(62nd percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Significant strike accuracy47%(42nd percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes0.30(83rd percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Share of wins by finish50%(67th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute2.17(21st percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Significant strike defence59%(67th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes0.00(58th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career107(25th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
KO/TKO losses0(62nd percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Submission losses1(92nd percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger0.000(62nd percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes2.13(75th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Takedown defence69%(57th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Share of cage time in control27%(54th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground39%(67th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Stylemixed (4.6 takedown attempts per 15 min; 27% control)
Career stage
Age35.6(54th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Age at UFC debut34.5(96th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Years since UFC debut1.0(8th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
UFC bouts4(38th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Cage time, minutes49(38th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Bouts per year, last three years3.9(100th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Days since last bout15(21st percentile at Women's Bantamweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

C510152020252026Oct 2023Oct 20262025-10-24: #14, Women's Bantamweight2025-10-31: #14, Women's Bantamweight2025-11-07: #14, Women's Bantamweight2025-11-14: #13, Women's Bantamweight2025-11-21: #13, Women's Bantamweight2025-12-05: #13, Women's Bantamweight2025-12-12: #13, Women's Bantamweight2026-01-23: #17, Women's Bantamweight2026-01-30: #17, Women's Bantamweight2026-02-06: #17, Women's Bantamweight2026-02-20: #17, Women's Bantamweight2026-02-27: #16, Women's Bantamweight2026-03-06: #16, Women's Bantamweight2026-03-13: #15, Women's Bantamweight2026-03-20: #15, Women's Bantamweight2026-03-27: #15, Women's Bantamweight2026-04-03: #14, Women's Bantamweight2026-04-10: #14, Women's Bantamweight2026-04-17: #14, Women's Bantamweight2026-04-24: #12, Women's Bantamweight2026-05-01: #13, Women's Bantamweight2026-05-08: #13, Women's Bantamweight2026-05-15: #13, Women's Bantamweight2026-05-29: #13, Women's Bantamweight2026-06-05: #13, Women's Bantamweight2026-06-13: #13, Women's Bantamweight2026-06-19: #13, Women's Bantamweight2026-06-26: #13, Women's Bantamweight2026-07-10: #14, Women's Bantamweight2026-07-17: #14, Women's Bantamweight2026-07-24: #14, Women's Bantamweight2026-07-31: #14, Women's Bantamweight2026-08-07: #14, Women's Bantamweight2026-08-14: #14, Women's Bantamweight2026-08-21: #14, Women's Bantamweight2026-08-28: #14, Women's Bantamweight2026-09-04: #14, Women's Bantamweight2026-09-11: #14, Women's Bantamweight2026-09-18: #14, Women's Bantamweight2026-09-25: #14, Women's Bantamweight2026-09-26: #14, Women's Bantamweight2026-10-03: #14, Women's Bantamweight2026-10-10: #14, Women's Bantamweight2026-10-17: #17, Women's Bantamweight2026-10-24: #17, Women's Bantamweight2026-10-31: #16, Women's Bantamweight#16

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 86 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

1,5501,6001,6502026Oct 2025Oct 20262025-10-18: 1,574 (W vs Tainara Lisboa)2025-12-13: 1,560 (L vs Luana Santos)2026-04-18: 1,630 (W vs Daria Zhelezniakova)2026-10-17: 1,579 (L vs Chelsea Chandler)1,579

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

Recent performances run about 42 points behind the rating: fighters this age typically run 41 points behind their rating, and her own recent results track that.

ComponentPointsMeaning
Age component-41what fighters aged 35.6 typically run relative to their rating (population curve, all UFC bouts since 2011)
Own recent results-2her recency-weighted mean and trend over 4 bouts, shrunk toward zero; trend -2 points a year
Combined-42the rating's likely distance from her current performance level, in rating points
Readingbehind ratingahead of, in line with (within 30 points), or behind the rating

Performance relative to the rating, by age

-1.0-0.5+0.0+0.5+1.0343536372025-10-18 (age 34.5): W vs Tainara Lisboa, residual +0.472025-12-13 (age 34.7): L vs Luana Santos, residual -0.102026-04-18 (age 35.0): W vs Daria Zhelezniakova, residual +0.122026-10-17 (age 35.5): L vs Chelsea Chandler, residual -0.62-0.06

Each dot is one decided UFC bout at her age then: the performance score minus the rating's expectation, on the score's own scale from -1 to +1 (filled = win, hollow = loss; above zero is better than the rating implied; a finish as a slight favourite is about +0.45). The dashed line is the population curve for all fighters; the solid line is this fighter's own fitted level and trend as of the data date, weighted toward recent bouts. One unit sustained over many bouts corresponds to about 695 rating points; a single bout's residual is noisy.

Held-out evidence (walk-forward 2016 to 2026, EXP-2026-10-21-01): the age curve held in every test year; the individual component is a weak signal (correlation 0.06 with the next bout's residual; among fighters aged 33 or over, the lowest predicted quartile won 38% of next bouts against 53% expected, the highest 48% against 52%) and adds nothing to bout prediction beyond the shadow model. No board uses any of it: the rankings answer who has earned the place, not who wins next (EXP-2026-10-20-09). Method: src/mmalab/decline.py; settings: config/decline.yaml (expectation from the resume rating; one unit of residual is about 695 rating points).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like her, not a forecast for her; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.