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Mark Choinski

Lightweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #77; v1.1 (shadow) #71

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 72-80: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,427, deviation 274: measured from 1 UFC bout; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290. Provisional: 1 UFC bout; the rating rests on little evidence.

Age 31 (born 1995-10-22) · Height 5 ft 8 in (173 cm) · Reach 69 in (175 cm) · Stance Orthodox · 512 days since last bout (2025-06-07) · Last five 0-1 · Streak L1

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,427 is the division's 91st highest of 96 board fighters after an inactivity penalty of 42 points for 512 days without a bout; the ledger stands at -1.0 (less 1.0 for blowout losses; losses count for three years); 0 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (0-1 last five). Score -0.34 = -0.34 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.00 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #77.

TermValueDetail
Score-0.3470% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term-0.34resume rating 1,427 (raw 1,469 less inactivity penalty 42), scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term+0.00quality ledger -1.0: +0.0 QW +0.0 proof -1.0 blowout -0.0 weak
Form penalty0.00last five 0-1
Quality wins, 15 years00 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placementscore order #77v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1#71score -0.44; score order #71

Rules, weights and worked examples: methodology.

All 1 UFC bout

DateEventOpponentOpp. official rankResultMethodRoundModel p
2025-06-07UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2MarQuel MederosunrankedLunanimous decision3 (5:00)47%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 96 board fighters at Lightweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute3.87(35th percentile at Lightweight)
Significant strike accuracy51%(68th percentile at Lightweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes0.00(24th percentile at Lightweight)
Share of wins by finishn/a
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute7.33(97th percentile at Lightweight)
Significant strike defence33%(4th percentile at Lightweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes1.00(91st percentile at Lightweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career110(24th percentile at Lightweight)
KO/TKO losses0(40th percentile at Lightweight)
Submission losses0(52nd percentile at Lightweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger0.000(41st percentile at Lightweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes2.00(76th percentile at Lightweight)
Takedown defencen/a
Share of cage time in control31%(83rd percentile at Lightweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground7%(9th percentile at Lightweight)
Stylewrestler (11.0 takedown attempts per 15 min; 31% control)
Career stage
Age31.0(35th percentile at Lightweight)
Age at UFC debut29.6(83rd percentile at Lightweight)
Years since UFC debut1.4(22nd percentile at Lightweight)
UFC bouts1(11th percentile at Lightweight)
Cage time, minutes15(15th percentile at Lightweight)
Bouts per year, last three years0.7(9th percentile at Lightweight)
Days since last bout512(97th percentile at Lightweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

C2040608020252026Oct 2023Oct 20262025-06-13: #56, Lightweight2025-06-20: #56, Lightweight2025-06-27: #56, Lightweight2025-07-11: #59, Lightweight2025-07-18: #59, Lightweight2025-07-25: #58, Lightweight2025-08-01: #58, Lightweight2025-08-08: #57, Lightweight2025-08-15: #57, Lightweight2025-08-22: #55, Lightweight2025-09-05: #57, Lightweight2025-09-12: #56, Lightweight2025-09-26: #57, Lightweight2025-10-03: #57, Lightweight2025-10-10: #56, Lightweight2025-10-17: #55, Lightweight2025-10-24: #57, Lightweight2025-10-31: #57, Lightweight2025-11-07: #57, Lightweight2025-11-14: #57, Lightweight2025-11-21: #56, Lightweight2025-12-05: #55, Lightweight2025-12-12: #58, Lightweight2026-01-23: #57, Lightweight2026-01-30: #54, Lightweight2026-02-06: #54, Lightweight2026-02-20: #54, Lightweight2026-02-27: #54, Lightweight2026-03-06: #53, Lightweight2026-03-13: #55, Lightweight2026-03-20: #56, Lightweight2026-03-27: #56, Lightweight2026-04-03: #58, Lightweight2026-04-10: #60, Lightweight2026-04-17: #60, Lightweight2026-04-24: #61, Lightweight2026-05-01: #61, Lightweight2026-05-08: #62, Lightweight2026-05-15: #60, Lightweight2026-05-29: #61, Lightweight2026-06-05: #61, Lightweight2026-06-13: #62, Lightweight2026-06-19: #64, Lightweight2026-06-26: #64, Lightweight2026-07-10: #64, Lightweight2026-07-17: #64, Lightweight2026-07-24: #65, Lightweight2026-07-31: #70, Lightweight2026-08-07: #72, Lightweight2026-08-14: #74, Lightweight2026-08-21: #73, Lightweight2026-08-28: #75, Lightweight2026-09-04: #75, Lightweight2026-09-11: #78, Lightweight2026-09-18: #78, Lightweight2026-09-25: #78, Lightweight2026-09-26: #79, Lightweight2026-10-03: #79, Lightweight2026-10-10: #78, Lightweight2026-10-17: #79, Lightweight2026-10-24: #78, Lightweight2026-10-31: #77, Lightweight#77

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 70 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

1,4001,4502026Jun 2025Oct 20262025-06-07: 1,437 (L vs MarQuel Mederos)1,437

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

No trajectory index: it needs three decided UFC bouts and a bout within the last three years (config/decline.yaml).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.