Manoel Sousa

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 26-32: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,547, deviation 239: measured from 2 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290. Provisional: 2 UFC bouts; the rating rests on little evidence.

Age 29 (born 1997-06-04) · Height 5 ft 9 in (175 cm) · Reach 70 in (178 cm) · Stance Orthodox · 85 days since last bout (2026-08-08) · Last five 2-0 · Streak W2

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,547 is the division's 45th highest of 96 board fighters; the ledger stands at +0.0 (no quality wins or recent losses on the ledger); 0 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (2-0 last five). Score +0.09 = +0.01 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.08 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #30.

Term	Value	Detail
Score	+0.09	70% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term	+0.01	resume rating 1,547, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term	+0.08	quality ledger +0.0: +0.0 QW +0.0 proof -0.0 blowout -0.0 weak
Form penalty	0.00	last five 2-0
Quality wins, 15 years	0	0 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placement	score order #30	v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1	#23	score +0.08; score order #23

All 2 UFC bouts

Date	Event	Opponent	Opp. official rank	Result	Method	Round	Model p
2026-08-08	UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld	Richie Miranda	unranked	W	unanimous decision	3 (5:00)	50%
2026-03-14	UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos	Bolaji Oki	unranked	W	KO/TKO	3 (4:12)	50%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 96 board fighters at Lightweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute	4.73	(61st percentile at Lightweight)
Significant strike accuracy	46%	(39th percentile at Lightweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes	1.54	(92nd percentile at Lightweight)
Share of wins by finish	50%	(48th percentile at Lightweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute	4.45	(59th percentile at Lightweight)
Significant strike defence	55%	(66th percentile at Lightweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes	0.00	(35th percentile at Lightweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career	130	(25th percentile at Lightweight)
KO/TKO losses	0	(40th percentile at Lightweight)
Submission losses	0	(52nd percentile at Lightweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger	0.000	(41st percentile at Lightweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes	0.51	(25th percentile at Lightweight)
Takedown defence	82%	(86th percentile at Lightweight)
Share of cage time in control	14%	(44th percentile at Lightweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground	20%	(49th percentile at Lightweight)
Style	striker (2.1 takedown attempts per 15 min; 14% control)
Career stage
Age	29.4	(22nd percentile at Lightweight)
Age at UFC debut	28.8	(74th percentile at Lightweight)
Years since UFC debut	0.6	(14th percentile at Lightweight)
UFC bouts	2	(21st percentile at Lightweight)
Cage time, minutes	29	(26th percentile at Lightweight)
Bouts per year, last three years	2.0	(83rd percentile at Lightweight)
Days since last bout	85	(45th percentile at Lightweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 100 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

No trajectory index: it needs three decided UFC bouts and a bout within the last three years (config/decline.yaml).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.