Lucas Rocha

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 30-31: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,496, deviation 244: measured from 2 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290. Provisional: 2 UFC bouts; the rating rests on little evidence.

Age 26 (born 2000-08-12) · Height 5 ft 3 in (160 cm) · Reach 64 in (163 cm) · Stance Orthodox · 386 days since last bout (2025-10-11) · Last five 1-1 · Streak W1

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,496 is the division's 34th highest of 49 board fighters after an inactivity penalty of 6 points for 386 days without a bout; the ledger stands at -1.0 (less 1.0 for other losses outside the top 5; losses count for three years); 0 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (1-1 last five). Score -0.15 = -0.15 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.00 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #31.

Term	Value	Detail
Score	-0.15	70% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term	-0.15	resume rating 1,496 (raw 1,502 less inactivity penalty 6), scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term	+0.00	quality ledger -1.0: +0.0 QW +0.0 proof -0.0 blowout -1.0 weak
Form penalty	0.00	last five 1-1
Quality wins, 15 years	0	0 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placement	score order #31	v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1	#31	score -0.25; score order #31

All 2 UFC bouts

Date	Event	Opponent	Opp. official rank	Result	Method	Round	Model p
2025-10-11	UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot	Stewart Nicoll	unranked	W	unanimous decision	3 (5:00)	40%
2024-10-12	UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira	Clayton Carpenter	unranked	L	submission	2 (2:12)	44%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 49 board fighters at Flyweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute	5.95	(96th percentile at Flyweight)
Significant strike accuracy	49%	(69th percentile at Flyweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes	0.00	(33rd percentile at Flyweight)
Share of wins by finish	0%	(22nd percentile at Flyweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute	3.56	(51st percentile at Flyweight)
Significant strike defence	60%	(80th percentile at Flyweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes	0.00	(39th percentile at Flyweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career	79	(22nd percentile at Flyweight)
KO/TKO losses	0	(51st percentile at Flyweight)
Submission losses	1	(82nd percentile at Flyweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger	0.000	(53rd percentile at Flyweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes	2.03	(67th percentile at Flyweight)
Takedown defence	83%	(89th percentile at Flyweight)
Share of cage time in control	6%	(20th percentile at Flyweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground	12%	(24th percentile at Flyweight)
Style	mixed (2.7 takedown attempts per 15 min; 6% control)
Career stage
Age	26.2	(12th percentile at Flyweight)
Age at UFC debut	24.2	(18th percentile at Flyweight)
Years since UFC debut	2.1	(31st percentile at Flyweight)
UFC bouts	2	(18th percentile at Flyweight)
Cage time, minutes	22	(16th percentile at Flyweight)
Bouts per year, last three years	1.0	(8th percentile at Flyweight)
Days since last bout	386	(94th percentile at Flyweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 43 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

No trajectory index: it needs three decided UFC bouts and a bout within the last three years (config/decline.yaml).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.