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Lucas Fernando

Light Heavyweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #17; v1.1 (shadow) #19

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 15-20: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,540, deviation 280: measured from 1 UFC bout; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290. Provisional: 1 UFC bout; the rating rests on little evidence.

Age 29 (born 1997-01-10) · Height 6 ft 3 in (190 cm) · Reach 80 in (203 cm) · Stance unknown · 78 days since last bout (2026-08-15) · Last five 1-0 · Streak W1

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,540 is the division's 28th highest of 51 board fighters; the ledger stands at +0.0 (no quality wins or recent losses on the ledger); 0 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (1-0 last five). Score +0.03 = -0.02 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.05 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #17.

TermValueDetail
Score+0.0370% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term-0.02resume rating 1,540, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term+0.05quality ledger +0.0: +0.0 QW +0.0 proof -0.0 blowout -0.0 weak
Form penalty0.00last five 1-0
Quality wins, 15 years00 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placementscore order #17v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1#19score +0.04; score order #19

Rules, weights and worked examples: methodology.

All 1 UFC bout

DateEventOpponentOpp. official rankResultMethodRoundModel p
2026-08-15UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado GarryRafael TobiasunrankedWKO/TKO3 (1:10)63%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 51 board fighters at Light Heavyweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute6.18(92nd percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Significant strike accuracy60%(94th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes2.69(92nd percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Share of wins by finish100%(100th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute1.16(4th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Significant strike defence77%(98th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes0.00(20th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career13(8th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
KO/TKO losses0(31st percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Submission losses0(57th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger0.000(33rd percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes0.00(31st percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Takedown defence0%(4th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Share of cage time in control1%(10th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground4%(14th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Stylestriker (0.0 takedown attempts per 15 min; 1% control)
Career stage
Age29.8(23rd percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Age at UFC debut29.6(65th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Years since UFC debut0.2(6th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
UFC bouts1(14th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Cage time, minutes11(18th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Bouts per year, last three years1.0(24th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Days since last bout78(39th percentile at Light Heavyweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

C51015202520252026Oct 2023Oct 20262026-08-21: #21, Light Heavyweight2026-08-28: #21, Light Heavyweight2026-09-04: #21, Light Heavyweight2026-09-11: #20, Light Heavyweight2026-09-18: #20, Light Heavyweight2026-09-25: #20, Light Heavyweight2026-09-26: #20, Light Heavyweight2026-10-03: #20, Light Heavyweight2026-10-10: #19, Light Heavyweight2026-10-17: #18, Light Heavyweight2026-10-24: #17, Light Heavyweight2026-10-31: #17, Light Heavyweight#17

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 120 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

1,5501,600Aug 2026Oct 20262026-08-15: 1,562 (W vs Rafael Tobias)1,562

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

No trajectory index: it needs three decided UFC bouts and a bout within the last three years (config/decline.yaml).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.