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Lance Gibson Jr.

Lightweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #37; v1.1 (shadow) #37

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 32-40: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,544, deviation 218: measured from 2 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290. Provisional: 2 UFC bouts; the rating rests on little evidence.

Age 31 (born 1995-02-02) · Height unknown · Reach unknown · Stance unknown · 218 days since last bout (2026-03-28) · Last five 1-1 · Streak W1

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,544 is the division's 48th highest of 96 board fighters; the ledger stands at -0.8 (+0.2 from quality wins, less 1.0 for other losses outside the top 5; losses count for three years); 1 quality win in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (1-1 last five). Score +0.02 = +0.00 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.02 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #36; the head-to-head rule (the winner of the most recent meeting within three years moves directly above the loser when ranked at most three places behind, six within a year) placed him #37.

Rules, weights and worked examples: methodology.

All 2 UFC bouts

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 96 board fighters at Lightweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Board position since Oct 2023

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 102 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

No trajectory index: it needs three decided UFC bouts and a bout within the last three years (config/decline.yaml).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

• Age band: 30 to 32 (age 31). On the board's own history (3,748 bouts between two board fighters, 2014 to 2026) the higher-scored fighter won 64% of bouts when under 30, 59% at 30 to 32, 57% at 33 to 35 and 42 to 46% at 36 and over (EXP-2026-10-20-09). A population rate, not a forecast for him.
• Provisional: 2 UFC bouts; the rating rests on little evidence (deviation 218).
• Not raised: no KO/TKO loss in the last 90 days; last bout within 12 months.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.