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Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Women's Strawweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #39; v1.1 (shadow) #40

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 39-40: the 10th to 90th percentile of her position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,457, deviation 121: measured from 19 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290.

Age 41 (born 1985-10-15) · Height 5 ft 3 in (160 cm) · Reach 64 in (163 cm) · Stance Orthodox · 386 days since last bout (2025-10-11) · Last five 2-3 · Streak L3

Why she is ranked here

Rating 1,457 is the division's 37th highest of 49 board fighters after an inactivity penalty of 6 points for 386 days without a bout; the ledger stands at -2.5 (+0.6 from quality wins, less 2.0 for blowout losses, less 1.0 for other losses outside the top 5; losses count for three years); 3 quality wins in 15 years, 3 over top-10 opponents; form penalty 0.15 for a 2-3 last five. Score -0.51 = -0.29 (rating term, 70% weight) -0.07 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.15 (form penalty); score order put her at #39.

Rules, weights and worked examples: methodology.

Last ten bouts

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for her (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 49 board fighters at Women's Strawweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Board position since Oct 2023

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better).

Predictive rating by bout

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

Recent performances run about 96 points behind the rating: fighters this age typically run 94 points behind their rating, and her own recent results track that.

Performance relative to the rating, by age

Each dot is one decided UFC bout at her age then: the performance score minus the rating's expectation, on the score's own scale from -1 to +1 (filled = win, hollow = loss; above zero is better than the rating implied; a finish as a slight favourite is about +0.45). The dashed line is the population curve for all fighters; the solid line is this fighter's own fitted level and trend as of the data date, weighted toward recent bouts. One unit sustained over many bouts corresponds to about 695 rating points; a single bout's residual is noisy.

Held-out evidence (walk-forward 2016 to 2026, EXP-2026-10-21-01): the age curve held in every test year; the individual component is a weak signal (correlation 0.06 with the next bout's residual; among fighters aged 33 or over, the lowest predicted quartile won 38% of next bouts against 53% expected, the highest 48% against 52%) and adds nothing to bout prediction beyond the shadow model. No board uses any of it: the rankings answer who has earned the place, not who wins next (EXP-2026-10-20-09). Method: src/mmalab/decline.py; settings: config/decline.yaml (expectation from the resume rating; one unit of residual is about 695 rating points).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like her, not a forecast for her; the register entries hold the measurements.

• Age band: 36 and over (age 41). On the board's own history (3,748 bouts between two board fighters, 2014 to 2026) the higher-scored fighter won 64% of bouts when under 30, 59% at 30 to 32, 57% at 33 to 35 and 42 to 46% at 36 and over (EXP-2026-10-20-09). A population rate, not a forecast for her.
• Layoff over 12 months: 386 days since the last bout (2025-10-11).
• Not raised: no KO/TKO loss in the last 90 days; 19 UFC bouts, more than the provisional limit of 3.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.