Welterweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #11; v1.1 (shadow) #5
Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).
Weight band 11-11: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights (the position does not depend on the weights). Rating 1,812, deviation 118: measured from 20 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290. Division set by a documented override (config/division_overrides.yaml).
Age 39 (born 1987-05-11) · Height 6 ft 0 in (183 cm) · Reach 76 in (193 cm) · Stance Switch · 106 days since last bout (2026-07-18) · Last five 1-4 · Streak L1
Why he is ranked here
Rating 1,812 is the division's highest below the champion; the ledger stands at +4.2 (+5.2 from quality wins, less 1.0 for blowout losses; losses count for three years); 9 quality wins in 15 years, 9 over top-10 opponents, which makes him entrenched; form penalty 0.60 for a 1-4 last five. Score +0.40 = +0.74 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.26 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.60 (form penalty); score order put him at #11.
Term
Value
Detail
Score
+0.40
70% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term
+0.74
resume rating 1,812, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.
Career statistics
Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 76 board fighters at Welterweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.
Output
Significant strikes landed per minute
4.13
(47th percentile at Welterweight)
Significant strike accuracy
51%
(62nd percentile at Welterweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes
0.41
(62nd percentile at Welterweight)
Share of wins by finish
31%
(18th percentile at Welterweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute
2.86
(34th percentile at Welterweight)
Significant strike defence
55%
(58th percentile at Welterweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes
0.04
(43rd percentile at Welterweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career
1,040
(96th percentile at Welterweight)
KO/TKO losses
1 (last 2022-08-20, 1,534 days ago)
(70th percentile at Welterweight)
Submission losses
0
(66th percentile at Welterweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger
0.027
(42nd percentile at Welterweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes
2.60
(78th percentile at Welterweight)
Takedown defence
90%
(80th percentile at Welterweight)
Share of cage time in control
40%
(82nd percentile at Welterweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground
40%
(83rd percentile at Welterweight)
Style
wrestler (6.2 takedown attempts per 15 min; 40% control)
Career stage
Age
39.5
(91st percentile at Welterweight)
Age at UFC debut
28.2
(55th percentile at Welterweight)
Years since UFC debut
11.3
(88th percentile at Welterweight)
UFC bouts
20
(89th percentile at Welterweight)
Cage time, minutes
364
(99th percentile at Welterweight)
Bouts per year, last three years
0.7
(4th percentile at Welterweight)
Days since last bout
106
(54th percentile at Welterweight)
Board position since Oct 2023
Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 7 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).
Predictive rating by bout
Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.
Trajectory
Recent performances run about 152 points behind the rating: fighters this age typically run 95 points behind their rating, and his own recent results put him a further 57 points behind.
Component
Points
Meaning
Age component
-95
what fighters aged 39.5 typically run relative to their rating (population curve, all UFC bouts since 2011)
Own recent results
-57
his recency-weighted mean and trend over 20 bouts, shrunk toward zero; trend -13 points a year
Combined
-152
the rating's likely distance from his current performance level, in rating points
Reading
behind rating
ahead of, in line with (within 30 points), or behind the rating
Performance relative to the rating, by age
Each dot is one decided UFC bout at his age then: the performance score minus the rating's expectation, on the score's own scale from -1 to +1 (filled = win, hollow = loss; above zero is better than the rating implied; a finish as a slight favourite is about +0.45). The dashed line is the population curve for all fighters; the solid line is this fighter's own fitted level and trend as of the data date, weighted toward recent bouts. One unit sustained over many bouts corresponds to about 695 rating points; a single bout's residual is noisy.
Held-out evidence (walk-forward 2016 to 2026, EXP-2026-10-21-01): the age curve held in every test year; the individual component is a weak signal (correlation 0.06 with the next bout's residual; among fighters aged 33 or over, the lowest predicted quartile won 38% of next bouts against 53% expected, the highest 48% against 52%) and adds nothing to bout prediction beyond the shadow model. No board uses any of it: the rankings answer who has earned the place, not who wins next (EXP-2026-10-20-09). Method: src/mmalab/decline.py; settings: config/decline.yaml (expectation from the resume rating; one unit of residual is about 695 rating points).
Context flags
Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.
Age band: 36 and over (age 39). On the board's own history (3,748 bouts between two board fighters, 2014 to 2026) the higher-scored fighter won 64% of bouts when under 30, 59% at 30 to 32, 57% at 33 to 35 and 42 to 46% at 36 and over (EXP-2026-10-20-09). A population rate, not a forecast for him.
Not raised: no KO/TKO loss in the last 90 days; last bout within 12 months; 20 UFC bouts, more than the provisional limit of 3.
REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.