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Kai Asakura

Bantamweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #48; v1.1 (shadow) #42

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 48-52: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,528, deviation 176: measured from 4 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290.

Age 33 (born 1993-10-31) · Height 5 ft 8 in (173 cm) · Reach 69 in (175 cm) · Stance Orthodox · 64 days since last bout (2026-08-29) · Last five 2-2 · Streak W2

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,528 is the division's 45th highest of 86 board fighters; the ledger stands at -2.0 (less 1.0 for blowout losses, less 1.0 for other losses outside the top 5; losses count for three years); 0 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (2-2 last five). Score -0.09 = -0.02 (rating term, 70% weight) -0.06 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #48.

TermValueDetail
Score-0.0970% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term-0.02resume rating 1,528, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term-0.06quality ledger -2.0: +0.0 QW +0.0 proof -1.0 blowout -1.0 weak
Form penalty0.00last five 2-2
Quality wins, 15 years00 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placementscore order #48v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1#42score -0.12; score order #42

Rules, weights and worked examples: methodology.

All 4 UFC bouts

DateEventOpponentOpp. official rankResultMethodRoundModel p
2026-08-29UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. SongAoriqilengunrankedWKO/TKO2 (0:34)61%
2026-05-30UFC Fight Night: Song vs. FigueiredoCameron SmothermanunrankedWKO/TKO1 (1:50)46%
2025-08-16UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. ChimaevTim Elliott#11Lsubmission2 (4:39)33%
2024-12-07UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura (title)Alexandre PantojaCLsubmission2 (2:05)23%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 86 board fighters at Bantamweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute3.07(30th percentile at Bantamweight)
Significant strike accuracy40%(13th percentile at Bantamweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes1.24(95th percentile at Bantamweight)
Share of wins by finish100%(100th percentile at Bantamweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute3.15(35th percentile at Bantamweight)
Significant strike defence52%(38th percentile at Bantamweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes0.00(45th percentile at Bantamweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career76(17th percentile at Bantamweight)
KO/TKO losses0(63rd percentile at Bantamweight)
Submission losses2(99th percentile at Bantamweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger0.000(64th percentile at Bantamweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes0.00(19th percentile at Bantamweight)
Takedown defence50%(25th percentile at Bantamweight)
Share of cage time in control5%(21st percentile at Bantamweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground9%(21st percentile at Bantamweight)
Stylestriker (0.6 takedown attempts per 15 min; 5% control)
Career stage
Age33.0(61st percentile at Bantamweight)
Age at UFC debut31.1(91st percentile at Bantamweight)
Years since UFC debut1.9(34th percentile at Bantamweight)
UFC bouts4(47th percentile at Bantamweight)
Cage time, minutes24(26th percentile at Bantamweight)
Bouts per year, last three years2.1(84th percentile at Bantamweight)
Days since last bout64(42nd percentile at Bantamweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

C20406020252026Oct 2023Oct 20262024-12-13: #30, Flyweight2025-01-10: #30, Flyweight2025-01-17: #31, Flyweight2025-01-31: #31, Flyweight2025-02-07: #31, Flyweight2025-02-14: #31, Flyweight2025-02-21: #31, Flyweight2025-02-28: #31, Flyweight2025-03-07: #31, Flyweight2025-03-14: #30, Flyweight2025-03-21: #30, Flyweight2025-03-28: #30, Flyweight2025-04-04: #31, Flyweight2025-04-11: #31, Flyweight2025-04-25: #31, Flyweight2025-05-02: #31, Flyweight2025-05-09: #31, Flyweight2025-05-16: #31, Flyweight2025-05-30: #30, Flyweight2025-06-06: #30, Flyweight2025-06-13: #30, Flyweight2025-06-20: #30, Flyweight2025-06-27: #30, Flyweight2025-07-11: #30, Flyweight2025-07-18: #30, Flyweight2025-07-25: #31, Flyweight2025-08-01: #31, Flyweight2025-08-08: #30, Flyweight2025-08-15: #30, Flyweight2025-08-22: #46, Flyweight2025-09-05: #47, Flyweight2025-09-12: #47, Flyweight2025-09-26: #45, Flyweight2025-10-03: #44, Flyweight2025-10-10: #44, Flyweight2025-10-17: #43, Flyweight2025-10-24: #43, Flyweight2025-10-31: #43, Flyweight2025-11-07: #43, Flyweight2025-11-14: #42, Flyweight2025-11-21: #42, Flyweight2025-12-05: #43, Flyweight2025-12-12: #42, Flyweight2026-01-23: #42, Flyweight2026-01-30: #43, Flyweight2026-02-06: #43, Flyweight2026-02-20: #43, Flyweight2026-02-27: #43, Flyweight2026-03-06: #44, Flyweight2026-03-13: #44, Flyweight2026-03-20: #44, Flyweight2026-03-27: #44, Flyweight2026-04-03: #43, Flyweight2026-04-10: #43, Flyweight2026-04-17: #42, Flyweight2026-04-24: #42, Flyweight2026-05-01: #42, Flyweight2026-05-08: #42, Flyweight2026-05-15: #40, Flyweight2026-05-29: #38, Flyweight2026-06-05: #37, Flyweight2026-06-13: #37, Flyweight2026-06-19: #37, Flyweight2026-06-26: #37, Flyweight2026-07-10: #34, Flyweight2026-07-17: #34, Flyweight2026-07-24: #34, Flyweight2026-07-31: #34, Flyweight2026-08-07: #34, Flyweight2026-08-14: #34, Flyweight2026-08-21: #35, Flyweight2026-08-28: #35, Flyweight2026-09-04: #49, Bantamweight2026-09-11: #49, Bantamweight2026-09-18: #49, Bantamweight2026-09-25: #49, Bantamweight2026-09-26: #50, Bantamweight2026-10-03: #49, Bantamweight2026-10-10: #50, Bantamweight2026-10-17: #52, Bantamweight2026-10-24: #52, Bantamweight2026-10-31: #48, Bantamweight#48

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Listed at Flyweight, then Bantamweight over this period. Absent from 50 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

1,4501,5001,5501,6001,6502026Dec 2024Oct 20262024-12-07: 1,481 (L vs Alexandre Pantoja)2025-08-16: 1,470 (L vs Tim Elliott)2026-05-30: 1,567 (W vs Cameron Smotherman)2026-08-29: 1,615 (W vs Aoriqileng)1,615

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

Recent performances are in line with the rating (-7 points).

ComponentPointsMeaning
Age component-22what fighters aged 33.0 typically run relative to their rating (population curve, all UFC bouts since 2011)
Own recent results+15his recency-weighted mean and trend over 4 bouts, shrunk toward zero; trend +3 points a year
Combined-7the rating's likely distance from his current performance level, in rating points
Readingin line with ratingahead of, in line with (within 30 points), or behind the rating

Performance relative to the rating, by age

-1.0-0.5+0.0+0.5+1.030313233342024-12-07 (age 31.1): L vs Alexandre Pantoja, residual -0.222025-08-16 (age 31.8): L vs Tim Elliott, residual -0.382026-05-30 (age 32.6): W vs Cameron Smotherman, residual +0.542026-08-29 (age 32.8): W vs Aoriqileng, residual +0.53-0.01

Each dot is one decided UFC bout at his age then: the performance score minus the rating's expectation, on the score's own scale from -1 to +1 (filled = win, hollow = loss; above zero is better than the rating implied; a finish as a slight favourite is about +0.45). The dashed line is the population curve for all fighters; the solid line is this fighter's own fitted level and trend as of the data date, weighted toward recent bouts. One unit sustained over many bouts corresponds to about 695 rating points; a single bout's residual is noisy.

Held-out evidence (walk-forward 2016 to 2026, EXP-2026-10-21-01): the age curve held in every test year; the individual component is a weak signal (correlation 0.06 with the next bout's residual; among fighters aged 33 or over, the lowest predicted quartile won 38% of next bouts against 53% expected, the highest 48% against 52%) and adds nothing to bout prediction beyond the shadow model. No board uses any of it: the rankings answer who has earned the place, not who wins next (EXP-2026-10-20-09). Method: src/mmalab/decline.py; settings: config/decline.yaml (expectation from the resume rating; one unit of residual is about 695 rating points).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.