Joel Faglier

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 15-15: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights (the position does not depend on the weights). Rating 1,554, deviation 290: measured from 1 UFC bout; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290. Provisional: 1 UFC bout; the rating rests on little evidence.

Age 25 (born 2001-01-18) · Height unknown · Reach unknown · Stance unknown · 15 days since last bout (2026-10-17) · Last five 1-0 · Streak W1

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,554 is the division's 21st highest of 55 board fighters; the ledger stands at +0.0 (no quality wins or recent losses on the ledger); 0 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (1-0 last five). Score +0.14 = +0.10 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.04 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #15.

Term	Value	Detail
Score	+0.14	70% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term	+0.10	resume rating 1,554, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term	+0.04	quality ledger +0.0: +0.0 QW +0.0 proof -0.0 blowout -0.0 weak
Form penalty	0.00	last five 1-0
Quality wins, 15 years	0	0 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placement	score order #15	v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1	#15	score +0.15; score order #15

All 1 UFC bout

Date	Event	Opponent	Opp. official rank	Result	Method	Round	Model p
2026-10-17	UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott	Javad Mahjoub	unranked	W	KO/TKO	2 (2:11)	50%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 55 board fighters at Heavyweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute	7.10	(85th percentile at Heavyweight)
Significant strike accuracy	67%	(91st percentile at Heavyweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes	0.00	(29th percentile at Heavyweight)
Share of wins by finish	100%	(100th percentile at Heavyweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute	8.35	(91st percentile at Heavyweight)
Significant strike defence	47%	(42nd percentile at Heavyweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes	4.18	(93rd percentile at Heavyweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career	60	(29th percentile at Heavyweight)
KO/TKO losses	0	(36th percentile at Heavyweight)
Submission losses	0	(76th percentile at Heavyweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger	0.000	(36th percentile at Heavyweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes	2.09	(78th percentile at Heavyweight)
Takedown defence	67%	(37th percentile at Heavyweight)
Share of cage time in control	0%	(9th percentile at Heavyweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground	14%	(31st percentile at Heavyweight)
Style	striker (2.1 takedown attempts per 15 min; 0% control)
Career stage
Age	25.8	(4th percentile at Heavyweight)
Age at UFC debut	25.7	(14th percentile at Heavyweight)
Years since UFC debut	0.0	(4th percentile at Heavyweight)
UFC bouts	1	(18th percentile at Heavyweight)
Cage time, minutes	7	(22nd percentile at Heavyweight)
Bouts per year, last three years	1.0	(29th percentile at Heavyweight)
Days since last bout	15	(11th percentile at Heavyweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 129 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

No trajectory index: it needs three decided UFC bouts and a bout within the last three years (config/decline.yaml).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.