Lightweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #88; v1.1 (shadow) #83
Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).
Weight band 88-88: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights (the position does not depend on the weights). Rating 1,527, deviation 124: measured from 36 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290.
Age 40 (born 1986-05-25) · Height 5 ft 9 in (175 cm) · Reach 71 in (180 cm) · Stance Orthodox · 176 days since last bout (2026-05-09) · Last five 0-5 · Streak L7
Why he is ranked here
Rating 1,527 is the division's 58th highest of 96 board fighters; the ledger stands at -0.9 (+1.1 from quality wins, less 2.0 for blowout losses; losses count for three years); 6 quality wins in 15 years, 4 over top-10 opponents, which makes him entrenched; form penalty 0.80 for a 0-5 last five. Score -0.84 = -0.05 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.01 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.80 (form penalty); score order put him at #88.
Term
Value
Detail
Score
-0.84
70% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term
-0.05
resume rating 1,527, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.
Career statistics
Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 96 board fighters at Lightweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.
Output
Significant strikes landed per minute
3.13
(17th percentile at Lightweight)
Significant strike accuracy
41%
(16th percentile at Lightweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes
0.66
(78th percentile at Lightweight)
Share of wins by finish
53%
(49th percentile at Lightweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute
3.25
(17th percentile at Lightweight)
Significant strike defence
58%
(82nd percentile at Lightweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes
0.18
(50th percentile at Lightweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career
1,327
(95th percentile at Lightweight)
KO/TKO losses
3 (last 2020-05-09, 2,367 days ago)
(86th percentile at Lightweight)
Submission losses
4
(99th percentile at Lightweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger
0.055
(51st percentile at Lightweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes
1.10
(44th percentile at Lightweight)
Takedown defence
62%
(34th percentile at Lightweight)
Share of cage time in control
17%
(58th percentile at Lightweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground
26%
(66th percentile at Lightweight)
Style
mixed (2.9 takedown attempts per 15 min; 17% control)
Career stage
Age
40.4
(96th percentile at Lightweight)
Age at UFC debut
21.0
(5th percentile at Lightweight)
Years since UFC debut
19.4
(100th percentile at Lightweight)
UFC bouts
36
(97th percentile at Lightweight)
Cage time, minutes
409
(97th percentile at Lightweight)
Bouts per year, last three years
0.7
(8th percentile at Lightweight)
Days since last bout
176
(70th percentile at Lightweight)
Board position since Oct 2023
Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 66 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).
Predictive rating by bout
Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.
Trajectory
Recent performances run about 192 points behind the rating: fighters this age typically run 107 points behind their rating, and his own recent results put him a further 84 points behind.
Component
Points
Meaning
Age component
-107
what fighters aged 40.4 typically run relative to their rating (population curve, all UFC bouts since 2011)
Own recent results
-84
his recency-weighted mean and trend over 35 bouts, shrunk toward zero; trend -9 points a year
Combined
-192
the rating's likely distance from his current performance level, in rating points
Reading
behind rating
ahead of, in line with (within 30 points), or behind the rating
Performance relative to the rating, by age
Each dot is one decided UFC bout at his age then: the performance score minus the rating's expectation, on the score's own scale from -1 to +1 (filled = win, hollow = loss; above zero is better than the rating implied; a finish as a slight favourite is about +0.45). The dashed line is the population curve for all fighters; the solid line is this fighter's own fitted level and trend as of the data date, weighted toward recent bouts. One unit sustained over many bouts corresponds to about 695 rating points; a single bout's residual is noisy.
Held-out evidence (walk-forward 2016 to 2026, EXP-2026-10-21-01): the age curve held in every test year; the individual component is a weak signal (correlation 0.06 with the next bout's residual; among fighters aged 33 or over, the lowest predicted quartile won 38% of next bouts against 53% expected, the highest 48% against 52%) and adds nothing to bout prediction beyond the shadow model. No board uses any of it: the rankings answer who has earned the place, not who wins next (EXP-2026-10-20-09). Method: src/mmalab/decline.py; settings: config/decline.yaml (expectation from the resume rating; one unit of residual is about 695 rating points).
Context flags
Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.
Age band: 36 and over (age 40). On the board's own history (3,748 bouts between two board fighters, 2014 to 2026) the higher-scored fighter won 64% of bouts when under 30, 59% at 30 to 32, 57% at 33 to 35 and 42 to 46% at 36 and over (EXP-2026-10-20-09). A population rate, not a forecast for him.
Not raised: no KO/TKO loss in the last 90 days; last bout within 12 months; 36 UFC bouts, more than the provisional limit of 3.
REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.