Back to the boards · All fighter profiles

Jacobe Smith

Welterweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #10; v1.1 (shadow) #11

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 9-10: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,679, deviation 169: measured from 5 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290.

Age 30 (born 1996-01-17) · Height 5 ft 10 in (178 cm) · Reach 72 in (183 cm) · Stance Southpaw · 1 days since last bout (2026-10-31) · Last five 5-0 · Streak W5

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,679 is the division's 11th highest of 76 board fighters; the ledger stands at +0.2 (+0.2 from quality wins; losses count for three years); 1 quality win in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (5-0 last five). Score +0.42 = +0.36 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.06 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #10.

TermValueDetail
Score+0.4270% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term+0.36resume rating 1,679, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term+0.06quality ledger +0.2: +0.2 QW +0.0 proof -0.0 blowout -0.0 weak
Form penalty0.00last five 5-0
Quality wins, 15 years10 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placementscore order #10v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1#11score +0.42; score order #11

Rules, weights and worked examples: methodology.

All 5 UFC bouts

DateEventOpponentOpp. official rankResultMethodRoundModel p
2026-10-31UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. NolanRandy BrownunrankedWunanimous decision3 (5:00)56%
2026-10-03UFC 332: Silva vs. WangBruce WhiteheadunrankedWKO/TKO1 (1:32)76%
2026-02-21UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. HernandezJosiah HarrellunrankedWKO/TKO1 (3:01)69%
2025-06-28UFC 317: Topuria vs. OliveiraNiko PriceunrankedWsubmission2 (4:03)67%
2025-01-11UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2Preston ParsonsunrankedWKO/TKO1 (1:13)41%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 76 board fighters at Welterweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute4.76(67th percentile at Welterweight)
Significant strike accuracy63%(96th percentile at Welterweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes0.50(71st percentile at Welterweight)
Share of wins by finish80%(71st percentile at Welterweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute2.28(16th percentile at Welterweight)
Significant strike defence51%(36th percentile at Welterweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes0.00(42nd percentile at Welterweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career68(26th percentile at Welterweight)
KO/TKO losses0(37th percentile at Welterweight)
Submission losses0(66th percentile at Welterweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger0.000(39th percentile at Welterweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes4.02(92nd percentile at Welterweight)
Takedown defence100%(100th percentile at Welterweight)
Share of cage time in control52%(92nd percentile at Welterweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground44%(89th percentile at Welterweight)
Stylemixed (4.5 takedown attempts per 15 min; 52% control)
Career stage
Age30.8(34th percentile at Welterweight)
Age at UFC debut29.0(62nd percentile at Welterweight)
Years since UFC debut1.8(36th percentile at Welterweight)
UFC bouts5(42nd percentile at Welterweight)
Cage time, minutes30(29th percentile at Welterweight)
Bouts per year, last three years2.8(95th percentile at Welterweight)
Days since last bout1(9th percentile at Welterweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

C10203020252026Oct 2023Oct 20262025-01-17: #27, Welterweight2025-01-31: #27, Welterweight2025-02-07: #28, Welterweight2025-02-14: #28, Welterweight2025-02-21: #29, Welterweight2025-02-28: #29, Welterweight2025-03-07: #29, Welterweight2025-03-14: #29, Welterweight2025-03-21: #29, Welterweight2025-03-28: #30, Welterweight2025-04-04: #30, Welterweight2025-04-11: #30, Welterweight2025-04-25: #28, Welterweight2025-05-02: #27, Welterweight2025-05-09: #28, Welterweight2025-05-16: #27, Welterweight2025-05-30: #27, Welterweight2025-06-06: #27, Welterweight2025-06-13: #28, Welterweight2025-06-20: #29, Welterweight2025-06-27: #29, Welterweight2025-07-11: #19, Welterweight2025-07-18: #19, Welterweight2025-07-25: #20, Welterweight2025-08-01: #20, Welterweight2025-08-08: #20, Welterweight2025-08-15: #20, Welterweight2025-08-22: #19, Welterweight2025-09-05: #19, Welterweight2025-09-12: #20, Welterweight2025-09-26: #20, Welterweight2025-10-03: #20, Welterweight2025-10-10: #20, Welterweight2025-10-17: #20, Welterweight2025-10-24: #21, Welterweight2025-10-31: #21, Welterweight2025-11-07: #22, Welterweight2025-11-14: #21, Welterweight2025-11-21: #23, Welterweight2025-12-05: #24, Welterweight2025-12-12: #24, Welterweight2026-01-23: #24, Welterweight2026-01-30: #24, Welterweight2026-02-06: #24, Welterweight2026-02-20: #25, Welterweight2026-02-27: #17, Welterweight2026-03-06: #17, Welterweight2026-03-13: #17, Welterweight2026-03-20: #17, Welterweight2026-03-27: #18, Welterweight2026-04-03: #17, Welterweight2026-04-10: #17, Welterweight2026-04-17: #17, Welterweight2026-04-24: #18, Welterweight2026-05-01: #18, Welterweight2026-05-08: #20, Welterweight2026-05-15: #22, Welterweight2026-05-29: #22, Welterweight2026-06-05: #21, Welterweight2026-06-13: #19, Welterweight2026-06-19: #19, Welterweight2026-06-26: #19, Welterweight2026-07-10: #20, Welterweight2026-07-17: #20, Welterweight2026-07-24: #20, Welterweight2026-07-31: #21, Welterweight2026-08-07: #21, Welterweight2026-08-14: #21, Welterweight2026-08-21: #21, Welterweight2026-08-28: #21, Welterweight2026-09-04: #21, Welterweight2026-09-11: #20, Welterweight2026-09-18: #20, Welterweight2026-09-25: #20, Welterweight2026-09-26: #20, Welterweight2026-10-03: #13, Welterweight2026-10-10: #13, Welterweight2026-10-17: #12, Welterweight2026-10-24: #12, Welterweight2026-10-31: #10, Welterweight#10

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 52 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

1,6001,6501,7001,7501,8002026Jan 2025Oct 20262025-01-11: 1,613 (W vs Preston Parsons)2025-06-28: 1,641 (W vs Niko Price)2026-02-21: 1,700 (W vs Josiah Harrell)2026-10-03: 1,739 (W vs Bruce Whitehead)2026-10-31: 1,788 (W vs Randy Brown)1,788

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

Recent performances run about 38 points ahead of the rating: his own recent results, not age, put him there.

ComponentPointsMeaning
Age component+5what fighters aged 30.8 typically run relative to their rating (population curve, all UFC bouts since 2011)
Own recent results+33his recency-weighted mean and trend over 5 bouts, shrunk toward zero; trend -1 points a year
Combined+38the rating's likely distance from his current performance level, in rating points
Readingahead of ratingahead of, in line with (within 30 points), or behind the rating

Performance relative to the rating, by age

-1.0-0.5+0.0+0.5+1.028293031322025-01-11 (age 29.0): W vs Preston Parsons, residual +0.572025-06-28 (age 29.4): W vs Niko Price, residual +0.492026-02-21 (age 30.1): W vs Josiah Harrell, residual +0.362026-10-03 (age 30.7): W vs Bruce Whitehead, residual +0.322026-10-31 (age 30.8): W vs Randy Brown, residual +0.38+0.05

Each dot is one decided UFC bout at his age then: the performance score minus the rating's expectation, on the score's own scale from -1 to +1 (filled = win, hollow = loss; above zero is better than the rating implied; a finish as a slight favourite is about +0.45). The dashed line is the population curve for all fighters; the solid line is this fighter's own fitted level and trend as of the data date, weighted toward recent bouts. One unit sustained over many bouts corresponds to about 695 rating points; a single bout's residual is noisy.

Held-out evidence (walk-forward 2016 to 2026, EXP-2026-10-21-01): the age curve held in every test year; the individual component is a weak signal (correlation 0.06 with the next bout's residual; among fighters aged 33 or over, the lowest predicted quartile won 38% of next bouts against 53% expected, the highest 48% against 52%) and adds nothing to bout prediction beyond the shadow model. No board uses any of it: the rankings answer who has earned the place, not who wins next (EXP-2026-10-20-09). Method: src/mmalab/decline.py; settings: config/decline.yaml (expectation from the resume rating; one unit of residual is about 695 rating points).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.