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Eric Nolan

Welterweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #54; v1.1 (shadow) #57

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 53-55: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,482, deviation 214: measured from 3 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290. Provisional: 3 UFC bouts; the rating rests on little evidence.

Age 29 (born 1997-09-13) · Height 6 ft 2 in (188 cm) · Reach 74 in (188 cm) · Stance Orthodox · 29 days since last bout (2026-10-03) · Last five 1-2 · Streak W1

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,482 is the division's 62nd highest of 76 board fighters; the ledger stands at -2.0 (less 1.0 for blowout losses, less 1.0 for other losses outside the top 5; losses count for three years); 0 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (1-2 last five). Score -0.26 = -0.21 (rating term, 70% weight) -0.05 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #54.

TermValueDetail
Score-0.2670% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term-0.21resume rating 1,482, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term-0.05quality ledger -2.0: +0.0 QW +0.0 proof -1.0 blowout -1.0 weak
Form penalty0.00last five 1-2
Quality wins, 15 years00 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placementscore order #54v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1#57score -0.46; score order #57

Rules, weights and worked examples: methodology.

All 3 UFC bouts

DateEventOpponentOpp. official rankResultMethodRoundModel p
2026-10-03UFC 332: Silva vs. WangCourt McGeeunrankedWKO/TKO3 (3:26)24%
2026-06-27UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. TorresFarman HasanovunrankedLunanimous decision3 (5:00)40%
2025-08-16UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. ChimaevBaisangur SusurkaevunrankedLsubmission2 (2:01)50%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 76 board fighters at Welterweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute4.46(58th percentile at Welterweight)
Significant strike accuracy45%(26th percentile at Welterweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes0.42(63rd percentile at Welterweight)
Share of wins by finish100%(100th percentile at Welterweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute4.37(74th percentile at Welterweight)
Significant strike defence59%(79th percentile at Welterweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes0.00(42nd percentile at Welterweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career155(43rd percentile at Welterweight)
KO/TKO losses0(37th percentile at Welterweight)
Submission losses1(89th percentile at Welterweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger0.000(39th percentile at Welterweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes0.00(24th percentile at Welterweight)
Takedown defence54%(29th percentile at Welterweight)
Share of cage time in control2%(7th percentile at Welterweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground16%(37th percentile at Welterweight)
Stylestriker (0.4 takedown attempts per 15 min; 2% control)
Career stage
Age29.1(23rd percentile at Welterweight)
Age at UFC debut27.9(51st percentile at Welterweight)
Years since UFC debut1.2(28th percentile at Welterweight)
UFC bouts3(34th percentile at Welterweight)
Cage time, minutes35(37th percentile at Welterweight)
Bouts per year, last three years2.5(92nd percentile at Welterweight)
Days since last bout29(21st percentile at Welterweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

C2040608020252026Oct 2023Oct 20262025-08-22: #49, Middleweight2025-09-05: #49, Middleweight2025-09-12: #49, Middleweight2025-09-26: #48, Middleweight2025-10-03: #49, Middleweight2025-10-10: #49, Middleweight2025-10-17: #49, Middleweight2025-10-24: #50, Middleweight2025-10-31: #50, Middleweight2025-11-07: #51, Middleweight2025-11-14: #50, Middleweight2025-11-21: #51, Middleweight2025-12-05: #51, Middleweight2025-12-12: #51, Middleweight2026-01-23: #52, Middleweight2026-01-30: #51, Middleweight2026-02-06: #52, Middleweight2026-02-20: #53, Middleweight2026-02-27: #53, Middleweight2026-03-06: #56, Middleweight2026-03-13: #56, Middleweight2026-03-20: #56, Middleweight2026-03-27: #55, Middleweight2026-04-03: #55, Middleweight2026-04-10: #56, Middleweight2026-04-17: #56, Middleweight2026-04-24: #58, Middleweight2026-05-01: #58, Middleweight2026-05-08: #56, Middleweight2026-05-15: #55, Middleweight2026-05-29: #54, Middleweight2026-06-05: #54, Middleweight2026-06-13: #54, Middleweight2026-06-19: #54, Middleweight2026-06-26: #54, Middleweight2026-07-10: #70, Welterweight2026-07-17: #71, Welterweight2026-07-24: #71, Welterweight2026-07-31: #70, Welterweight2026-08-07: #69, Welterweight2026-08-14: #69, Welterweight2026-08-21: #68, Welterweight2026-08-28: #68, Welterweight2026-09-04: #69, Welterweight2026-09-11: #68, Welterweight2026-09-18: #67, Welterweight2026-09-25: #67, Welterweight2026-09-26: #66, Welterweight2026-10-03: #59, Welterweight2026-10-10: #59, Welterweight2026-10-17: #59, Welterweight2026-10-24: #58, Welterweight2026-10-31: #54, Welterweight#54

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Listed at Middleweight, then Welterweight over this period. Absent from 79 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

1,3501,4001,4501,5002026Aug 2025Oct 20262025-08-16: 1,431 (L vs Baisangur Susurkaev)2026-06-27: 1,380 (L vs Farman Hasanov)2026-10-03: 1,480 (W vs Court McGee)1,480

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

Recent performances are in line with the rating (+21 points).

ComponentPointsMeaning
Age component+22what fighters aged 29.1 typically run relative to their rating (population curve, all UFC bouts since 2011)
Own recent results-1his recency-weighted mean and trend over 3 bouts, shrunk toward zero; trend +2 points a year
Combined+21the rating's likely distance from his current performance level, in rating points
Readingin line with ratingahead of, in line with (within 30 points), or behind the rating

Performance relative to the rating, by age

-1.0-0.5+0.0+0.5+1.0272829302025-08-16 (age 27.9): L vs Baisangur Susurkaev, residual -0.472026-06-27 (age 28.8): L vs Farman Hasanov, residual -0.332026-10-03 (age 29.1): W vs Court McGee, residual +0.69+0.03

Each dot is one decided UFC bout at his age then: the performance score minus the rating's expectation, on the score's own scale from -1 to +1 (filled = win, hollow = loss; above zero is better than the rating implied; a finish as a slight favourite is about +0.45). The dashed line is the population curve for all fighters; the solid line is this fighter's own fitted level and trend as of the data date, weighted toward recent bouts. One unit sustained over many bouts corresponds to about 695 rating points; a single bout's residual is noisy.

Held-out evidence (walk-forward 2016 to 2026, EXP-2026-10-21-01): the age curve held in every test year; the individual component is a weak signal (correlation 0.06 with the next bout's residual; among fighters aged 33 or over, the lowest predicted quartile won 38% of next bouts against 53% expected, the highest 48% against 52%) and adds nothing to bout prediction beyond the shadow model. No board uses any of it: the rankings answer who has earned the place, not who wins next (EXP-2026-10-20-09). Method: src/mmalab/decline.py; settings: config/decline.yaml (expectation from the resume rating; one unit of residual is about 695 rating points).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.