Elisha Ellison

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 47-48: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,416, deviation 256: measured from 2 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290. Provisional: 2 UFC bouts; the rating rests on little evidence.

Age 29 (born 1997-03-05) · Height 6 ft 0 in (183 cm) · Reach 78 in (198 cm) · Stance Orthodox · 113 days since last bout (2026-07-11) · Last five 0-2 · Streak L2

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,416 is the division's 54th highest of 55 board fighters; the ledger stands at -2.0 (less 2.0 for blowout losses; losses count for three years); 0 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (0-2 last five). Score -0.34 = -0.29 (rating term, 70% weight) -0.04 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #48.

Term	Value	Detail
Score	-0.34	70% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term	-0.29	resume rating 1,416, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term	-0.04	quality ledger -2.0: +0.0 QW +0.0 proof -2.0 blowout -0.0 weak
Form penalty	0.00	last five 0-2
Quality wins, 15 years	0	0 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placement	score order #48	v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1	#48	score -0.54; score order #48

All 2 UFC bouts

Date	Event	Opponent	Opp. official rank	Result	Method	Round	Model p
2026-07-11	UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2	Gable Steveson	unranked	L	KO/TKO	1 (2:31)	36%
2025-09-27	UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes	Brando Pericic	unranked	L	KO/TKO	1 (1:55)	50%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 55 board fighters at Heavyweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute	3.61	(47th percentile at Heavyweight)
Significant strike accuracy	38%	(9th percentile at Heavyweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes	0.00	(29th percentile at Heavyweight)
Share of wins by finish	n/a
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute	15.79	(98th percentile at Heavyweight)
Significant strike defence	34%	(9th percentile at Heavyweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes	3.38	(91st percentile at Heavyweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career	70	(36th percentile at Heavyweight)
KO/TKO losses	2 (last 2026-07-11, 113 days ago)	(82nd percentile at Heavyweight)
Submission losses	0	(76th percentile at Heavyweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger	0.425	(98th percentile at Heavyweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes	0.00	(36th percentile at Heavyweight)
Takedown defence	100%	(100th percentile at Heavyweight)
Share of cage time in control	5%	(29th percentile at Heavyweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground	31%	(73rd percentile at Heavyweight)
Style	mixed (6.8 takedown attempts per 15 min; 5% control)
Career stage
Age	29.7	(24th percentile at Heavyweight)
Age at UFC debut	28.6	(44th percentile at Heavyweight)
Years since UFC debut	1.1	(40th percentile at Heavyweight)
UFC bouts	2	(33rd percentile at Heavyweight)
Cage time, minutes	4	(13th percentile at Heavyweight)
Bouts per year, last three years	1.8	(53rd percentile at Heavyweight)
Days since last bout	113	(65th percentile at Heavyweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 83 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

No trajectory index: it needs three decided UFC bouts and a bout within the last three years (config/decline.yaml).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.