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Carlos Ulberg

Light Heavyweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) champion; v1.1 (shadow) champion

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Rating 1,712, deviation 125: measured from 11 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290.

Age 35 (born 1990-11-07) · Height 6 ft 4 in (193 cm) · Reach 77 in (196 cm) · Stance Orthodox · 204 days since last bout (2026-04-11) · Last five 5-0 · Streak W10

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,712 is the division's 4th highest of 51 board fighters; the ledger stands at +5.5 (+5.5 from quality wins; losses count for three years); 5 quality wins in 15 years, 4 over top-10 opponents, which makes him entrenched; no form penalty (5-0 last five). Score +0.80 = +0.47 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.33 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); he holds the title and sits above the numbered board.

TermValueDetail
Score+0.8070% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term+0.47resume rating 1,712, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term+0.33quality ledger +5.5: +5.5 QW +0.0 proof -0.0 blowout -0.0 weak
Form penalty0.00last five 5-0
Quality wins, 15 years54 over top-10 opponents, 5 over top-15; entrenched
Placementtitle holderv1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1championscore +0.82; title holder

Rules, weights and worked examples: methodology.

Last ten bouts

DateEventOpponentOpp. official rankResultMethodRoundModel p
2026-04-11UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg (title)Jiri Prochazka#2WKO/TKO1 (3:45)66%
2025-09-27UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. ReyesDominick Reyes#7WKO/TKO1 (4:27)56%
2025-03-22UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. BradyJan Blachowicz#3Wunanimous decision3 (5:00)58%
2024-11-23UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. FigueiredoVolkan Oezdemir#8Wunanimous decision3 (5:00)50%
2024-05-11UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. NascimentoAlonzo Menifield#11WKO/TKO1 (0:12)62%
2023-09-09UFC 293: Adesanya vs. StricklandDa Woon JungunrankedWsubmission3 (4:49)69%
2023-05-13UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. AlmeidaIhor PotieriaunrankedWKO/TKO1 (2:09)75%
2022-11-12UFC 281: Adesanya vs. PereiraNicolae NegumereanuunrankedWKO/TKO1 (3:44)66%
2022-06-25UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. GamrotTafon NchukwiunrankedWKO/TKO1 (1:15)45%
2022-02-12UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2Fabio CherantunrankedWunanimous decision3 (5:00)64%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 51 board fighters at Light Heavyweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute6.61(96th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Significant strike accuracy56%(75th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes1.25(86th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Share of wins by finish70%(49th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute4.04(67th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Significant strike defence51%(57th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes0.18(27th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career338(69th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
KO/TKO losses1 (last 2021-03-06, 2,066 days ago)(53rd percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Submission losses0(57th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger0.061(51st percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes0.54(49th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Takedown defence86%(73rd percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Share of cage time in control4%(24th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground12%(26th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Stylestriker (0.9 takedown attempts per 15 min; 4% control)
Career stage
Age36.0(75th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Age at UFC debut30.3(75th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Years since UFC debut5.7(65th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
UFC bouts11(71st percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Cage time, minutes84(65th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Bouts per year, last three years1.7(47th percentile at Light Heavyweight)
Days since last bout204(76th percentile at Light Heavyweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

C5101520252026Oct 2023Oct 20262023-10-06: #13, Light Heavyweight2023-10-13: #13, Light Heavyweight2023-10-20: #13, Light Heavyweight2023-11-03: #13, Light Heavyweight2023-11-10: #12, Light Heavyweight2023-11-17: #13, Light Heavyweight2023-12-01: #12, Light Heavyweight2023-12-08: #12, Light Heavyweight2023-12-15: #12, Light Heavyweight2024-01-12: #12, Light Heavyweight2024-01-19: #12, Light Heavyweight2024-02-02: #12, Light Heavyweight2024-02-09: #12, Light Heavyweight2024-02-16: #11, Light Heavyweight2024-02-23: #12, Light Heavyweight2024-03-01: #12, Light Heavyweight2024-03-08: #12, Light Heavyweight2024-03-15: #12, Light Heavyweight2024-03-22: #12, Light Heavyweight2024-03-29: #12, Light Heavyweight2024-04-05: #12, Light Heavyweight2024-04-12: #12, Light Heavyweight2024-04-26: #13, Light Heavyweight2024-05-03: #13, Light Heavyweight2024-05-10: #13, Light Heavyweight2024-05-17: #7, Light Heavyweight2024-05-31: #7, Light Heavyweight2024-06-07: #7, Light Heavyweight2024-06-14: #7, Light Heavyweight2024-06-21: #7, Light Heavyweight2024-06-28: #8, Light Heavyweight2024-07-12: #8, Light Heavyweight2024-07-19: #7, Light Heavyweight2024-07-26: #7, Light Heavyweight2024-08-02: #7, Light Heavyweight2024-08-09: #7, Light Heavyweight2024-08-16: #7, Light Heavyweight2024-08-23: #7, Light Heavyweight2024-09-06: #6, Light Heavyweight2024-09-13: #6, Light Heavyweight2024-09-27: #6, Light Heavyweight2024-10-04: #6, Light Heavyweight2024-10-11: #6, Light Heavyweight2024-10-18: #6, Light Heavyweight2024-10-25: #6, Light Heavyweight2024-11-01: #7, Light Heavyweight2024-11-08: #7, Light Heavyweight2024-11-15: #7, Light Heavyweight2024-11-22: #7, Light Heavyweight2024-12-06: #3, Light Heavyweight2024-12-13: #3, Light Heavyweight2025-01-10: #5, Light Heavyweight2025-01-17: #5, Light Heavyweight2025-01-31: #4, Light Heavyweight2025-02-07: #4, Light Heavyweight2025-02-14: #4, Light Heavyweight2025-02-21: #4, Light Heavyweight2025-02-28: #4, Light Heavyweight2025-03-07: #4, Light Heavyweight2025-03-14: #3, Light Heavyweight2025-03-21: #3, Light Heavyweight2025-03-28: #2, Light Heavyweight2025-04-04: #2, Light Heavyweight2025-04-11: #2, Light Heavyweight2025-04-25: #2, Light Heavyweight2025-05-02: #2, Light Heavyweight2025-05-09: #2, Light Heavyweight2025-05-16: #2, Light Heavyweight2025-05-30: #2, Light Heavyweight2025-06-06: #2, Light Heavyweight2025-06-13: #2, Light Heavyweight2025-06-20: #2, Light Heavyweight2025-06-27: #2, Light Heavyweight2025-07-11: #2, Light Heavyweight2025-07-18: #2, Light Heavyweight2025-07-25: #2, Light Heavyweight2025-08-01: #2, Light Heavyweight2025-08-08: #2, Light Heavyweight2025-08-15: #2, Light Heavyweight2025-08-22: #2, Light Heavyweight2025-09-05: #2, Light Heavyweight2025-09-12: #2, Light Heavyweight2025-09-26: #2, Light Heavyweight2025-10-03: #2, Light Heavyweight2025-10-10: #3, Light Heavyweight2025-10-17: #3, Light Heavyweight2025-10-24: #3, Light Heavyweight2025-10-31: #3, Light Heavyweight2025-11-07: #3, Light Heavyweight2025-11-14: #3, Light Heavyweight2025-11-21: #3, Light Heavyweight2025-12-05: #3, Light Heavyweight2025-12-12: #3, Light Heavyweight2026-01-23: #3, Light Heavyweight2026-01-30: #3, Light Heavyweight2026-02-06: #3, Light Heavyweight2026-02-20: #3, Light Heavyweight2026-02-27: #3, Light Heavyweight2026-03-06: #3, Light Heavyweight2026-03-13: #3, Light Heavyweight2026-03-20: #3, Light Heavyweight2026-03-27: #3, Light Heavyweight2026-04-03: #3, Light Heavyweight2026-04-10: #3, Light Heavyweight2026-04-17: title holder, Light Heavyweight2026-04-24: title holder, Light Heavyweight2026-05-01: title holder, Light Heavyweight2026-05-08: title holder, Light Heavyweight2026-05-15: title holder, Light Heavyweight2026-05-29: title holder, Light Heavyweight2026-06-05: title holder, Light Heavyweight2026-06-13: title holder, Light Heavyweight2026-06-19: title holder, Light Heavyweight2026-06-26: title holder, Light Heavyweight2026-07-10: title holder, Light Heavyweight2026-07-17: title holder, Light Heavyweight2026-07-24: title holder, Light Heavyweight2026-07-31: title holder, Light Heavyweight2026-08-07: title holder, Light Heavyweight2026-08-14: title holder, Light Heavyweight2026-08-21: title holder, Light Heavyweight2026-08-28: title holder, Light Heavyweight2026-09-04: title holder, Light Heavyweight2026-09-11: title holder, Light Heavyweight2026-09-18: title holder, Light Heavyweight2026-09-25: title holder, Light Heavyweight2026-09-26: title holder, Light Heavyweight2026-10-03: title holder, Light Heavyweight2026-10-10: title holder, Light Heavyweight2026-10-17: title holder, Light Heavyweight2026-10-24: title holder, Light Heavyweight2026-10-31: title holder, Light HeavyweightC

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better).

Predictive rating by bout

1,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,900202320242025Mar 2021Oct 20262021-03-06: 1,498 (L vs Kennedy Nzechukwu)2022-02-12: 1,547 (W vs Fabio Cherant)2022-06-25: 1,654 (W vs Tafon Nchukwi)2022-11-12: 1,705 (W vs Nicolae Negumereanu)2023-05-13: 1,746 (W vs Ihor Potieria)2023-09-09: 1,756 (W vs Da Woon Jung)2024-05-11: 1,805 (W vs Alonzo Menifield)2024-11-23: 1,814 (W vs Volkan Oezdemir)2025-03-22: 1,826 (W vs Jan Blachowicz)2025-09-27: 1,856 (W vs Dominick Reyes)2026-04-11: 1,890 (W vs Jiri Prochazka)1,890

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

Recent performances are in line with the rating (+11 points).

ComponentPointsMeaning
Age component-53what fighters aged 36.0 typically run relative to their rating (population curve, all UFC bouts since 2011)
Own recent results+63his recency-weighted mean and trend over 11 bouts, shrunk toward zero; trend +5 points a year
Combined+11the rating's likely distance from his current performance level, in rating points
Readingin line with ratingahead of, in line with (within 30 points), or behind the rating

Performance relative to the rating, by age

-1.0-0.5+0.0+0.5+1.02930313233343536372021-03-06 (age 30.3): L vs Kennedy Nzechukwu, residual -0.512022-02-12 (age 31.3): W vs Fabio Cherant, residual +0.362022-06-25 (age 31.6): W vs Tafon Nchukwi, residual +0.482022-11-12 (age 32.0): W vs Nicolae Negumereanu, residual +0.512023-05-13 (age 32.5): W vs Ihor Potieria, residual +0.392023-09-09 (age 32.8): W vs Da Woon Jung, residual +0.462024-05-11 (age 33.5): W vs Alonzo Menifield, residual +0.562024-11-23 (age 34.0): W vs Volkan Oezdemir, residual +0.192025-03-22 (age 34.4): W vs Jan Blachowicz, residual +0.262025-09-27 (age 34.9): W vs Dominick Reyes, residual +0.492026-04-11 (age 35.4): W vs Jiri Prochazka, residual +0.62+0.02

Each dot is one decided UFC bout at his age then: the performance score minus the rating's expectation, on the score's own scale from -1 to +1 (filled = win, hollow = loss; above zero is better than the rating implied; a finish as a slight favourite is about +0.45). The dashed line is the population curve for all fighters; the solid line is this fighter's own fitted level and trend as of the data date, weighted toward recent bouts. One unit sustained over many bouts corresponds to about 695 rating points; a single bout's residual is noisy.

Held-out evidence (walk-forward 2016 to 2026, EXP-2026-10-21-01): the age curve held in every test year; the individual component is a weak signal (correlation 0.06 with the next bout's residual; among fighters aged 33 or over, the lowest predicted quartile won 38% of next bouts against 53% expected, the highest 48% against 52%) and adds nothing to bout prediction beyond the shadow model. No board uses any of it: the rankings answer who has earned the place, not who wins next (EXP-2026-10-20-09). Method: src/mmalab/decline.py; settings: config/decline.yaml (expectation from the resume rating; one unit of residual is about 695 rating points).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.