Middleweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #74; v1.1 (shadow) #71
Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).
Weight band 74-74: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights (the position does not depend on the weights). Rating 1,506, deviation 110: measured from 28 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290.
Age 38 (born 1987-12-21) · Height 6 ft 1 in (185 cm) · Reach 74 in (188 cm) · Stance Orthodox · 232 days since last bout (2026-03-14) · Last five 1-4 · Streak L2
Why he is ranked here
Rating 1,506 is the division's 56th highest of 79 board fighters; the ledger stands at -3.1 (+0.9 from quality wins, less 4.0 for other losses outside the top 5; losses count for three years); 7 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; form penalty 0.60 for a 1-4 last five. Score -0.82 = -0.10 (rating term, 70% weight) -0.12 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.60 (form penalty); score order put him at #74.
Term
Value
Detail
Score
-0.82
70% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term
-0.10
resume rating 1,506, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.
Career statistics
Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 79 board fighters at Middleweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.
Output
Significant strikes landed per minute
3.41
(42nd percentile at Middleweight)
Significant strike accuracy
44%
(20th percentile at Middleweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes
0.21
(43rd percentile at Middleweight)
Share of wins by finish
12%
(14th percentile at Middleweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute
3.32
(43rd percentile at Middleweight)
Significant strike defence
55%
(68th percentile at Middleweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes
0.33
(57th percentile at Middleweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career
1,209
(94th percentile at Middleweight)
KO/TKO losses
6 (last 2025-09-06, 421 days ago)
(100th percentile at Middleweight)
Submission losses
0
(59th percentile at Middleweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger
0.131
(77th percentile at Middleweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes
0.70
(32nd percentile at Middleweight)
Takedown defence
80%
(74th percentile at Middleweight)
Share of cage time in control
13%
(39th percentile at Middleweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground
16%
(36th percentile at Middleweight)
Style
mixed (2.6 takedown attempts per 15 min; 13% control)
Career stage
Age
38.9
(97th percentile at Middleweight)
Age at UFC debut
22.5
(5th percentile at Middleweight)
Years since UFC debut
16.4
(100th percentile at Middleweight)
UFC bouts
28
(100th percentile at Middleweight)
Cage time, minutes
364
(99th percentile at Middleweight)
Bouts per year, last three years
1.7
(44th percentile at Middleweight)
Days since last bout
232
(87th percentile at Middleweight)
Board position since Oct 2023
Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better).
Predictive rating by bout
Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.
Trajectory
Recent performances run about 107 points behind the rating: fighters this age typically run 88 points behind their rating, and his own recent results put him a further 20 points behind.
Component
Points
Meaning
Age component
-88
what fighters aged 38.9 typically run relative to their rating (population curve, all UFC bouts since 2011)
Own recent results
-20
his recency-weighted mean and trend over 28 bouts, shrunk toward zero; trend -3 points a year
Combined
-108
the rating's likely distance from his current performance level, in rating points
Reading
behind rating
ahead of, in line with (within 30 points), or behind the rating
Performance relative to the rating, by age
Each dot is one decided UFC bout at his age then: the performance score minus the rating's expectation, on the score's own scale from -1 to +1 (filled = win, hollow = loss; above zero is better than the rating implied; a finish as a slight favourite is about +0.45). The dashed line is the population curve for all fighters; the solid line is this fighter's own fitted level and trend as of the data date, weighted toward recent bouts. One unit sustained over many bouts corresponds to about 695 rating points; a single bout's residual is noisy.
Held-out evidence (walk-forward 2016 to 2026, EXP-2026-10-21-01): the age curve held in every test year; the individual component is a weak signal (correlation 0.06 with the next bout's residual; among fighters aged 33 or over, the lowest predicted quartile won 38% of next bouts against 53% expected, the highest 48% against 52%) and adds nothing to bout prediction beyond the shadow model. No board uses any of it: the rankings answer who has earned the place, not who wins next (EXP-2026-10-20-09). Method: src/mmalab/decline.py; settings: config/decline.yaml (expectation from the resume rating; one unit of residual is about 695 rating points).
Context flags
Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.
Age band: 36 and over (age 38). On the board's own history (3,748 bouts between two board fighters, 2014 to 2026) the higher-scored fighter won 64% of bouts when under 30, 59% at 30 to 32, 57% at 33 to 35 and 42 to 46% at 36 and over (EXP-2026-10-20-09). A population rate, not a forecast for him.
Not raised: no KO/TKO loss in the last 90 days; last bout within 12 months; 28 UFC bouts, more than the provisional limit of 3.
REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.