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Bia Mesquita

Women's Bantamweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #6; v1.1 (shadow) #8

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 6-8: the 10th to 90th percentile of her position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,616, deviation 203: measured from 3 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290. Provisional: 3 UFC bouts; the rating rests on little evidence.

Age 35 (born 1991-04-07) · Height unknown · Reach unknown · Stance Orthodox · 134 days since last bout (2026-06-20) · Last five 3-0 · Streak W3

Why she is ranked here

Rating 1,616 is the division's 5th highest of 24 board fighters; the ledger stands at +0.0 (no quality wins or recent losses on the ledger); 0 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (3-0 last five). Score +0.19 = +0.19 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.00 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put her at #6.

TermValueDetail
Score+0.1970% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term+0.19resume rating 1,616, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term+0.00quality ledger +0.0: +0.0 QW +0.0 proof -0.0 blowout -0.0 weak
Form penalty0.00last five 3-0
Quality wins, 15 years00 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placementscore order #6v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1#8score +0.19; score order #7; placement rules -> #8

Rules, weights and worked examples: methodology.

All 3 UFC bouts

DateEventOpponentOpp. official rankResultMethodRoundModel p
2026-06-20UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. HoriguchiMelissa MullinsunrankedWsubmission1 (3:16)69%
2026-03-14UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. VallejosMontse RendonunrankedWsubmission1 (2:07)59%
2025-10-11UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. GamrotIrina AlekseevaunrankedWsubmission2 (2:14)57%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for her (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 24 board fighters at Women's Bantamweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute4.52(79th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Significant strike accuracy57%(96th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes0.00(46th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Share of wins by finish100%(100th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute1.27(8th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Significant strike defence71%(96th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes0.00(58th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career16(8th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
KO/TKO losses0(62nd percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Submission losses0(54th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger0.000(62nd percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes3.57(96th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Takedown defence0%(4th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Share of cage time in control54%(88th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground81%(100th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Stylemixed (4.8 takedown attempts per 15 min; 54% control)
Career stage
Age35.6(58th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Age at UFC debut34.5(92nd percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Years since UFC debut1.1(12th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
UFC bouts3(21st percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Cage time, minutes13(8th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Bouts per year, last three years2.8(96th percentile at Women's Bantamweight)
Days since last bout134(62nd percentile at Women's Bantamweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

C5101520252026Oct 2023Oct 20262025-10-17: #14, Women's Bantamweight2025-10-24: #15, Women's Bantamweight2025-10-31: #15, Women's Bantamweight2025-11-07: #15, Women's Bantamweight2025-11-14: #14, Women's Bantamweight2025-11-21: #14, Women's Bantamweight2025-12-05: #14, Women's Bantamweight2025-12-12: #14, Women's Bantamweight2026-01-23: #14, Women's Bantamweight2026-01-30: #14, Women's Bantamweight2026-02-06: #14, Women's Bantamweight2026-02-20: #14, Women's Bantamweight2026-02-27: #13, Women's Bantamweight2026-03-06: #13, Women's Bantamweight2026-03-13: #12, Women's Bantamweight2026-03-20: #11, Women's Bantamweight2026-03-27: #11, Women's Bantamweight2026-04-03: #10, Women's Bantamweight2026-04-10: #10, Women's Bantamweight2026-04-17: #10, Women's Bantamweight2026-04-24: #10, Women's Bantamweight2026-05-01: #10, Women's Bantamweight2026-05-08: #10, Women's Bantamweight2026-05-15: #10, Women's Bantamweight2026-05-29: #11, Women's Bantamweight2026-06-05: #11, Women's Bantamweight2026-06-13: #11, Women's Bantamweight2026-06-19: #11, Women's Bantamweight2026-06-26: #8, Women's Bantamweight2026-07-10: #9, Women's Bantamweight2026-07-17: #9, Women's Bantamweight2026-07-24: #9, Women's Bantamweight2026-07-31: #9, Women's Bantamweight2026-08-07: #9, Women's Bantamweight2026-08-14: #9, Women's Bantamweight2026-08-21: #9, Women's Bantamweight2026-08-28: #9, Women's Bantamweight2026-09-04: #9, Women's Bantamweight2026-09-11: #9, Women's Bantamweight2026-09-18: #9, Women's Bantamweight2026-09-25: #9, Women's Bantamweight2026-09-26: #9, Women's Bantamweight2026-10-03: #8, Women's Bantamweight2026-10-10: #8, Women's Bantamweight2026-10-17: #8, Women's Bantamweight2026-10-24: #8, Women's Bantamweight2026-10-31: #6, Women's Bantamweight#6

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 85 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

1,5501,6001,6501,7002026Oct 2025Oct 20262025-10-11: 1,573 (W vs Irina Alekseeva)2026-03-14: 1,653 (W vs Montse Rendon)2026-06-20: 1,615 (W vs Melissa Mullins)1,615

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

Recent performances are in line with the rating (-17 points).

ComponentPointsMeaning
Age component-41what fighters aged 35.6 typically run relative to their rating (population curve, all UFC bouts since 2011)
Own recent results+23her recency-weighted mean and trend over 3 bouts, shrunk toward zero; trend -0 points a year
Combined-17the rating's likely distance from her current performance level, in rating points
Readingin line with ratingahead of, in line with (within 30 points), or behind the rating

Performance relative to the rating, by age

-1.0-0.5+0.0+0.5+1.0343536372025-10-11 (age 34.5): W vs Irina Alekseeva, residual +0.432026-03-14 (age 34.9): W vs Montse Rendon, residual +0.422026-06-20 (age 35.2): W vs Melissa Mullins, residual +0.34-0.03

Each dot is one decided UFC bout at her age then: the performance score minus the rating's expectation, on the score's own scale from -1 to +1 (filled = win, hollow = loss; above zero is better than the rating implied; a finish as a slight favourite is about +0.45). The dashed line is the population curve for all fighters; the solid line is this fighter's own fitted level and trend as of the data date, weighted toward recent bouts. One unit sustained over many bouts corresponds to about 695 rating points; a single bout's residual is noisy.

Held-out evidence (walk-forward 2016 to 2026, EXP-2026-10-21-01): the age curve held in every test year; the individual component is a weak signal (correlation 0.06 with the next bout's residual; among fighters aged 33 or over, the lowest predicted quartile won 38% of next bouts against 53% expected, the highest 48% against 52%) and adds nothing to bout prediction beyond the shadow model. No board uses any of it: the rankings answer who has earned the place, not who wins next (EXP-2026-10-20-09). Method: src/mmalab/decline.py; settings: config/decline.yaml (expectation from the resume rating; one unit of residual is about 695 rating points).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like her, not a forecast for her; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.