Austin Vanderford

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 46-50: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,489, deviation 231: measured from 2 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290. Provisional: 2 UFC bouts; the rating rests on little evidence.

Age 36 (born 1990-03-21) · Height 5 ft 11 in (180 cm) · Reach 74 in (188 cm) · Stance Orthodox · 393 days since last bout (2025-10-04) · Last five 1-1 · Streak L1

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,489 is the division's 58th highest of 76 board fighters after an inactivity penalty of 8 points for 393 days without a bout; the ledger stands at -1.0 (less 1.0 for other losses outside the top 5; losses count for three years); 0 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (1-1 last five). Score -0.19 = -0.19 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.00 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #47.

Term	Value	Detail
Score	-0.19	70% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term	-0.19	resume rating 1,489 (raw 1,497 less inactivity penalty 8), scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term	+0.00	quality ledger -1.0: +0.0 QW +0.0 proof -0.0 blowout -1.0 weak
Form penalty	0.00	last five 1-1
Quality wins, 15 years	0	0 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placement	score order #47	v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1	#45	score -0.29; score order #45

All 2 UFC bouts

Date	Event	Opponent	Opp. official rank	Result	Method	Round	Model p
2025-10-04	UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2	Ramiz Brahimaj	unranked	L	submission	2 (2:24)	54%
2025-02-22	UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song	Nikolay Veretennikov	unranked	W	KO/TKO	2 (4:13)	48%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 76 board fighters at Welterweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute	2.65	(20th percentile at Welterweight)
Significant strike accuracy	65%	(99th percentile at Welterweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes	0.00	(32nd percentile at Welterweight)
Share of wins by finish	100%	(100th percentile at Welterweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute	1.56	(9th percentile at Welterweight)
Significant strike defence	52%	(41st percentile at Welterweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes	0.00	(42nd percentile at Welterweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career	26	(9th percentile at Welterweight)
KO/TKO losses	0	(37th percentile at Welterweight)
Submission losses	1	(89th percentile at Welterweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger	0.000	(39th percentile at Welterweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes	4.51	(96th percentile at Welterweight)
Takedown defence	100%	(100th percentile at Welterweight)
Share of cage time in control	65%	(99th percentile at Welterweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground	84%	(99th percentile at Welterweight)
Style	wrestler (9.0 takedown attempts per 15 min; 65% control)
Career stage
Age	36.6	(78th percentile at Welterweight)
Age at UFC debut	34.9	(100th percentile at Welterweight)
Years since UFC debut	1.7	(33rd percentile at Welterweight)
UFC bouts	2	(28th percentile at Welterweight)
Cage time, minutes	17	(24th percentile at Welterweight)
Bouts per year, last three years	1.2	(30th percentile at Welterweight)
Days since last bout	393	(89th percentile at Welterweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 84 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

No trajectory index: it needs three decided UFC bouts and a bout within the last three years (config/decline.yaml).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.