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Andre Petroski

Middleweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #64; v1.1 (shadow) #66

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 61-66: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,511, deviation 122: measured from 13 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290.

Age 35 (born 1991-06-12) · Height 6 ft 0 in (183 cm) · Reach 73 in (185 cm) · Stance Switch · 169 days since last bout (2026-05-16) · Last five 2-3 · Streak L3

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,511 is the division's 53rd highest of 79 board fighters; the ledger stands at -3.9 (+0.1 from quality wins, less 2.0 for blowout losses, less 2.0 for other losses outside the top 5; losses count for three years); 1 quality win in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; form penalty 0.15 for a 2-3 last five. Score -0.41 = -0.09 (rating term, 70% weight) -0.17 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.15 (form penalty); score order put him at #64.

TermValueDetail
Score-0.4170% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term-0.09resume rating 1,511, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term-0.17quality ledger -3.9: +0.1 QW +0.0 proof -2.0 blowout -2.0 weak
Form penalty0.15last five 2-3
Quality wins, 15 years10 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placementscore order #64v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1#66score -0.66; score order #66

Rules, weights and worked examples: methodology.

Last ten bouts

DateEventOpponentOpp. official rankResultMethodRoundModel p
2026-05-16UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. CostaCody BrundageunrankedLKO/TKO2 (0:44)50%
2025-09-27UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. ReyesCam RowstonunrankedLKO/TKO1 (2:41)55%
2025-06-14UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. BuckleyEdmen ShahbazyanunrankedLunanimous decision3 (5:00)40%
2025-02-15UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. RodriguesRodolfo VieiraunrankedWunanimous decision3 (5:00)51%
2024-09-07UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. BradyDylan BudkaunrankedWunanimous decision3 (5:00)64%
2024-07-13UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. CortezJosh FremdunrankedWunanimous decision3 (5:00)54%
2024-03-30UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. FiorotJacob MalkoununrankedLKO/TKO2 (0:39)38%
2023-10-14UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. BarbozaMichel PereiraunrankedLKO/TKO1 (1:06)38%
2023-08-19UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'MalleyGerald MeerschaertunrankedWsplit decision3 (5:00)60%
2022-11-12UFC 281: Adesanya vs. PereiraWellington TurmanunrankedWunanimous decision3 (5:00)71%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 79 board fighters at Middleweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute2.75(25th percentile at Middleweight)
Significant strike accuracy49%(44th percentile at Middleweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes0.11(34th percentile at Middleweight)
Share of wins by finish38%(26th percentile at Middleweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute2.99(33rd percentile at Middleweight)
Significant strike defence52%(51st percentile at Middleweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes0.45(68th percentile at Middleweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career402(71st percentile at Middleweight)
KO/TKO losses4 (last 2026-05-16, 169 days ago)(97th percentile at Middleweight)
Submission losses0(59th percentile at Middleweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger0.203(87th percentile at Middleweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes3.12(86th percentile at Middleweight)
Takedown defence86%(86th percentile at Middleweight)
Share of cage time in control39%(85th percentile at Middleweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground25%(71st percentile at Middleweight)
Stylewrestler (5.9 takedown attempts per 15 min; 39% control)
Career stage
Age35.4(72nd percentile at Middleweight)
Age at UFC debut30.2(72nd percentile at Middleweight)
Years since UFC debut5.2(63rd percentile at Middleweight)
UFC bouts13(80th percentile at Middleweight)
Cage time, minutes134(75th percentile at Middleweight)
Bouts per year, last three years2.3(76th percentile at Middleweight)
Days since last bout169(72nd percentile at Middleweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

C2040608020252026Oct 2023Oct 20262023-10-06: #10, Middleweight2023-10-13: #9, Middleweight2023-10-20: #15, Middleweight2023-11-03: #15, Middleweight2023-11-10: #15, Middleweight2023-11-17: #14, Middleweight2023-12-01: #14, Middleweight2023-12-08: #15, Middleweight2023-12-15: #16, Middleweight2024-01-12: #16, Middleweight2024-01-19: #16, Middleweight2024-02-02: #15, Middleweight2024-02-09: #16, Middleweight2024-02-16: #18, Middleweight2024-02-23: #18, Middleweight2024-03-01: #18, Middleweight2024-03-08: #18, Middleweight2024-03-15: #19, Middleweight2024-03-22: #19, Middleweight2024-03-29: #19, Middleweight2024-04-05: #30, Middleweight2024-04-12: #30, Middleweight2024-04-26: #30, Middleweight2024-05-03: #30, Middleweight2024-05-10: #30, Middleweight2024-05-17: #29, Middleweight2024-05-31: #29, Middleweight2024-06-07: #28, Middleweight2024-06-14: #29, Middleweight2024-06-21: #29, Middleweight2024-06-28: #28, Middleweight2024-07-12: #28, Middleweight2024-07-19: #25, Middleweight2024-07-26: #25, Middleweight2024-08-02: #24, Middleweight2024-08-09: #24, Middleweight2024-08-16: #24, Middleweight2024-08-23: #24, Middleweight2024-09-06: #24, Middleweight2024-09-13: #23, Middleweight2024-09-27: #23, Middleweight2024-10-04: #23, Middleweight2024-10-11: #23, Middleweight2024-10-18: #23, Middleweight2024-10-25: #24, Middleweight2024-11-01: #27, Middleweight2024-11-08: #27, Middleweight2024-11-15: #26, Middleweight2024-11-22: #26, Middleweight2024-12-06: #26, Middleweight2024-12-13: #25, Middleweight2025-01-10: #25, Middleweight2025-01-17: #26, Middleweight2025-01-31: #26, Middleweight2025-02-07: #26, Middleweight2025-02-14: #26, Middleweight2025-02-21: #21, Middleweight2025-02-28: #22, Middleweight2025-03-07: #22, Middleweight2025-03-14: #22, Middleweight2025-03-21: #23, Middleweight2025-03-28: #23, Middleweight2025-04-04: #24, Middleweight2025-04-11: #24, Middleweight2025-04-25: #25, Middleweight2025-05-02: #26, Middleweight2025-05-09: #32, Middleweight2025-05-16: #32, Middleweight2025-05-30: #25, Middleweight2025-06-06: #25, Middleweight2025-06-13: #25, Middleweight2025-06-20: #36, Middleweight2025-06-27: #35, Middleweight2025-07-11: #34, Middleweight2025-07-18: #34, Middleweight2025-07-25: #34, Middleweight2025-08-01: #34, Middleweight2025-08-08: #34, Middleweight2025-08-15: #33, Middleweight2025-08-22: #35, Middleweight2025-09-05: #34, Middleweight2025-09-12: #34, Middleweight2025-09-26: #33, Middleweight2025-10-03: #43, Middleweight2025-10-10: #42, Middleweight2025-10-17: #42, Middleweight2025-10-24: #45, Middleweight2025-10-31: #45, Middleweight2025-11-07: #46, Middleweight2025-11-14: #47, Middleweight2025-11-21: #47, Middleweight2025-12-05: #46, Middleweight2025-12-12: #46, Middleweight2026-01-23: #47, Middleweight2026-01-30: #47, Middleweight2026-02-06: #47, Middleweight2026-02-20: #48, Middleweight2026-02-27: #47, Middleweight2026-03-06: #49, Middleweight2026-03-13: #49, Middleweight2026-03-20: #48, Middleweight2026-03-27: #48, Middleweight2026-04-03: #48, Middleweight2026-04-10: #47, Middleweight2026-04-17: #47, Middleweight2026-04-24: #48, Middleweight2026-05-01: #47, Middleweight2026-05-08: #48, Middleweight2026-05-15: #47, Middleweight2026-05-29: #67, Middleweight2026-06-05: #68, Middleweight2026-06-13: #68, Middleweight2026-06-19: #68, Middleweight2026-06-26: #68, Middleweight2026-07-10: #65, Middleweight2026-07-17: #65, Middleweight2026-07-24: #65, Middleweight2026-07-31: #65, Middleweight2026-08-07: #65, Middleweight2026-08-14: #65, Middleweight2026-08-21: #66, Middleweight2026-08-28: #66, Middleweight2026-09-04: #66, Middleweight2026-09-11: #68, Middleweight2026-09-18: #68, Middleweight2026-09-25: #66, Middleweight2026-09-26: #66, Middleweight2026-10-03: #64, Middleweight2026-10-10: #64, Middleweight2026-10-17: #62, Middleweight2026-10-24: #63, Middleweight2026-10-31: #64, Middleweight#64

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better).

Predictive rating by bout

1,4001,4501,5001,5501,6001,6502023202420252026Aug 2021Oct 20262021-08-28: 1,558 (W vs Micheal Gillmore)2021-10-30: 1,607 (W vs Hu Yaozong)2022-05-14: 1,592 (W vs Nick Maximov)2022-11-12: 1,594 (W vs Wellington Turman)2023-08-19: 1,579 (W vs Gerald Meerschaert)2023-10-14: 1,530 (L vs Michel Pereira)2024-03-30: 1,525 (L vs Jacob Malkoun)2024-07-13: 1,542 (W vs Josh Fremd)2024-09-07: 1,551 (W vs Dylan Budka)2025-02-15: 1,550 (W vs Rodolfo Vieira)2025-06-14: 1,537 (L vs Edmen Shahbazyan)2025-09-27: 1,480 (L vs Cam Rowston)2026-05-16: 1,420 (L vs Cody Brundage)1,420

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

Recent performances run about 82 points behind the rating: fighters this age typically run 46 points behind their rating, and his own recent results put him a further 36 points behind.

ComponentPointsMeaning
Age component-46what fighters aged 35.4 typically run relative to their rating (population curve, all UFC bouts since 2011)
Own recent results-36his recency-weighted mean and trend over 13 bouts, shrunk toward zero; trend -9 points a year
Combined-82the rating's likely distance from his current performance level, in rating points
Readingbehind ratingahead of, in line with (within 30 points), or behind the rating

Performance relative to the rating, by age

-1.0-0.5+0.0+0.5+1.029303132333435362021-08-28 (age 30.2): W vs Micheal Gillmore, residual +0.472021-10-30 (age 30.4): W vs Hu Yaozong, residual +0.372022-05-14 (age 30.9): W vs Nick Maximov, residual +0.462022-11-12 (age 31.4): W vs Wellington Turman, residual +0.092023-08-19 (age 32.2): W vs Gerald Meerschaert, residual -0.042023-10-14 (age 32.3): L vs Michel Pereira, residual -0.582024-03-30 (age 32.8): L vs Jacob Malkoun, residual -0.592024-07-13 (age 33.1): W vs Josh Fremd, residual +0.202024-09-07 (age 33.2): W vs Dylan Budka, residual +0.142025-02-15 (age 33.7): W vs Rodolfo Vieira, residual +0.092025-06-14 (age 34.0): L vs Edmen Shahbazyan, residual -0.282025-09-27 (age 34.3): L vs Cam Rowston, residual -0.572026-05-16 (age 34.9): L vs Cody Brundage, residual -0.56-0.12

Each dot is one decided UFC bout at his age then: the performance score minus the rating's expectation, on the score's own scale from -1 to +1 (filled = win, hollow = loss; above zero is better than the rating implied; a finish as a slight favourite is about +0.45). The dashed line is the population curve for all fighters; the solid line is this fighter's own fitted level and trend as of the data date, weighted toward recent bouts. One unit sustained over many bouts corresponds to about 695 rating points; a single bout's residual is noisy.

Held-out evidence (walk-forward 2016 to 2026, EXP-2026-10-21-01): the age curve held in every test year; the individual component is a weak signal (correlation 0.06 with the next bout's residual; among fighters aged 33 or over, the lowest predicted quartile won 38% of next bouts against 53% expected, the highest 48% against 52%) and adds nothing to bout prediction beyond the shadow model. No board uses any of it: the rankings answer who has earned the place, not who wins next (EXP-2026-10-20-09). Method: src/mmalab/decline.py; settings: config/decline.yaml (expectation from the resume rating; one unit of residual is about 695 rating points).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.