Alvin Hines

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 46-46: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights (the position does not depend on the weights). Rating 1,445, deviation 240: measured from 2 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290. Provisional: 2 UFC bouts; the rating rests on little evidence.

Age 35 (born 1991-10-20) · Height 6 ft 2 in (188 cm) · Reach 74 in (188 cm) · Stance Orthodox · 106 days since last bout (2026-07-18) · Last five 0-2 · Streak L2

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,445 is the division's 52nd highest of 55 board fighters; the ledger stands at -2.0 (less 1.0 for blowout losses, less 1.0 for other losses outside the top 5; losses count for three years); 0 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (0-2 last five). Score -0.26 = -0.21 (rating term, 70% weight) -0.04 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #46.

Term	Value	Detail
Score	-0.26	70% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term	-0.21	resume rating 1,445, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term	-0.04	quality ledger -2.0: +0.0 QW +0.0 proof -1.0 blowout -1.0 weak
Form penalty	0.00	last five 0-2
Quality wins, 15 years	0	0 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placement	score order #46	v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1	#46	score -0.45; score order #46

All 2 UFC bouts

Date	Event	Opponent	Opp. official rank	Result	Method	Round	Model p
2026-07-18	UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman	RJ Harris	unranked	L	KO/TKO	1 (1:40)	44%
2025-06-28	UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira	Jhonata Diniz	unranked	L	unanimous decision	3 (5:00)	47%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 55 board fighters at Heavyweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute	5.58	(82nd percentile at Heavyweight)
Significant strike accuracy	33%	(7th percentile at Heavyweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes	0.00	(29th percentile at Heavyweight)
Share of wins by finish	n/a
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute	7.62	(89th percentile at Heavyweight)
Significant strike defence	39%	(24th percentile at Heavyweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes	0.90	(82nd percentile at Heavyweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career	127	(51st percentile at Heavyweight)
KO/TKO losses	1 (last 2026-07-18, 106 days ago)	(69th percentile at Heavyweight)
Submission losses	0	(76th percentile at Heavyweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger	0.212	(78th percentile at Heavyweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes	0.90	(62nd percentile at Heavyweight)
Takedown defence	n/a
Share of cage time in control	0%	(11th percentile at Heavyweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground	2%	(11th percentile at Heavyweight)
Style	mixed (9.0 takedown attempts per 15 min; 0% control)
Career stage
Age	35.0	(66th percentile at Heavyweight)
Age at UFC debut	33.7	(80th percentile at Heavyweight)
Years since UFC debut	1.3	(45th percentile at Heavyweight)
UFC bouts	2	(33rd percentile at Heavyweight)
Cage time, minutes	17	(31st percentile at Heavyweight)
Bouts per year, last three years	1.5	(36th percentile at Heavyweight)
Days since last bout	106	(64th percentile at Heavyweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 73 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

No trajectory index: it needs three decided UFC bouts and a bout within the last three years (config/decline.yaml).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.