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Alexia Thainara

Women's Strawweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #9; v1.1 (shadow) #8

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 8-9: the 10th to 90th percentile of her position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,622, deviation 171: measured from 4 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290.

Age 30 (born 1995-11-20) · Height 5 ft 4 in (163 cm) · Reach 67 in (170 cm) · Stance Orthodox · 85 days since last bout (2026-08-08) · Last five 4-0 · Streak W4

Why she is ranked here

Rating 1,622 is the division's 9th highest of 49 board fighters; the ledger stands at +1.5 (+1.5 from quality wins; losses count for three years); 2 quality wins in 15 years, 1 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (4-0 last five). Score +0.37 = +0.25 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.13 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put her at #9.

TermValueDetail
Score+0.3770% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term+0.25resume rating 1,622, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term+0.13quality ledger +1.5: +1.5 QW +0.0 proof -0.0 blowout -0.0 weak
Form penalty0.00last five 4-0
Quality wins, 15 years21 over top-10 opponents, 2 over top-15
Placementscore order #9v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1#8score +0.37; score order #8

Rules, weights and worked examples: methodology.

All 4 UFC bouts

DateEventOpponentOpp. official rankResultMethodRoundModel p
2026-08-08UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. SalkilldAmanda Lemos#8Wunanimous decision3 (5:00)47%
2026-03-28UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. PyferBruna BrasilunrankedWunanimous decision3 (5:00)74%
2025-09-27UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. ReyesLoma Lookboonmee#14Wunanimous decision3 (5:00)51%
2025-03-22UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. BradyMolly McCannunrankedWsubmission1 (4:32)53%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for her (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 49 board fighters at Women's Strawweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute4.22(51st percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Significant strike accuracy52%(73rd percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes0.00(49th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Share of wins by finish25%(42nd percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute2.66(14th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Significant strike defence45%(16th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes0.00(47th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career132(20th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
KO/TKO losses0(57th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Submission losses0(63rd percentile at Women's Strawweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger0.000(57th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes4.24(98th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Takedown defence100%(100th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Share of cage time in control62%(100th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground36%(86th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Stylewrestler (8.8 takedown attempts per 15 min; 62% control)
Career stage
Age30.9(29th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Age at UFC debut29.3(67th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Years since UFC debut1.6(20th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
UFC bouts4(33rd percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Cage time, minutes50(31st percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Bouts per year, last three years2.5(98th percentile at Women's Strawweight)
Days since last bout85(49th percentile at Women's Strawweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

C510152020252026Oct 2023Oct 20262025-03-28: #18, Women's Strawweight2025-04-04: #18, Women's Strawweight2025-04-11: #18, Women's Strawweight2025-04-25: #18, Women's Strawweight2025-05-02: #18, Women's Strawweight2025-05-09: #18, Women's Strawweight2025-05-16: #17, Women's Strawweight2025-05-30: #17, Women's Strawweight2025-06-06: #17, Women's Strawweight2025-06-13: #17, Women's Strawweight2025-06-20: #17, Women's Strawweight2025-06-27: #17, Women's Strawweight2025-07-11: #17, Women's Strawweight2025-07-18: #18, Women's Strawweight2025-07-25: #18, Women's Strawweight2025-08-01: #18, Women's Strawweight2025-08-08: #18, Women's Strawweight2025-08-15: #18, Women's Strawweight2025-08-22: #19, Women's Strawweight2025-09-05: #18, Women's Strawweight2025-09-12: #18, Women's Strawweight2025-09-26: #18, Women's Strawweight2025-10-03: #14, Women's Strawweight2025-10-10: #14, Women's Strawweight2025-10-17: #14, Women's Strawweight2025-10-24: #16, Women's Strawweight2025-10-31: #15, Women's Strawweight2025-11-07: #13, Women's Strawweight2025-11-14: #13, Women's Strawweight2025-11-21: #14, Women's Strawweight2025-12-05: #14, Women's Strawweight2025-12-12: #14, Women's Strawweight2026-01-23: #14, Women's Strawweight2026-01-30: #14, Women's Strawweight2026-02-06: #14, Women's Strawweight2026-02-20: #14, Women's Strawweight2026-02-27: #14, Women's Strawweight2026-03-06: #13, Women's Strawweight2026-03-13: #13, Women's Strawweight2026-03-20: #13, Women's Strawweight2026-03-27: #13, Women's Strawweight2026-04-03: #9, Women's Strawweight2026-04-10: #9, Women's Strawweight2026-04-17: #9, Women's Strawweight2026-04-24: #9, Women's Strawweight2026-05-01: #9, Women's Strawweight2026-05-08: #10, Women's Strawweight2026-05-15: #10, Women's Strawweight2026-05-29: #10, Women's Strawweight2026-06-05: #10, Women's Strawweight2026-06-13: #10, Women's Strawweight2026-06-19: #10, Women's Strawweight2026-06-26: #9, Women's Strawweight2026-07-10: #9, Women's Strawweight2026-07-17: #8, Women's Strawweight2026-07-24: #8, Women's Strawweight2026-07-31: #8, Women's Strawweight2026-08-07: #9, Women's Strawweight2026-08-14: #7, Women's Strawweight2026-08-21: #7, Women's Strawweight2026-08-28: #7, Women's Strawweight2026-09-04: #8, Women's Strawweight2026-09-11: #8, Women's Strawweight2026-09-18: #8, Women's Strawweight2026-09-25: #8, Women's Strawweight2026-09-26: #8, Women's Strawweight2026-10-03: #8, Women's Strawweight2026-10-10: #8, Women's Strawweight2026-10-17: #8, Women's Strawweight2026-10-24: #9, Women's Strawweight2026-10-31: #9, Women's Strawweight#9

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Absent from 61 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

1,5501,6001,6501,7001,7502026Mar 2025Oct 20262025-03-22: 1,554 (W vs Molly McCann)2025-09-27: 1,608 (W vs Loma Lookboonmee)2026-03-28: 1,637 (W vs Bruna Brasil)2026-08-08: 1,700 (W vs Amanda Lemos)1,700

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

Recent performances are in line with the rating (+27 points).

ComponentPointsMeaning
Age component+1what fighters aged 30.9 typically run relative to their rating (population curve, all UFC bouts since 2011)
Own recent results+25her recency-weighted mean and trend over 4 bouts, shrunk toward zero; trend -1 points a year
Combined+27the rating's likely distance from her current performance level, in rating points
Readingin line with ratingahead of, in line with (within 30 points), or behind the rating

Performance relative to the rating, by age

-1.0-0.5+0.0+0.5+1.028293031322025-03-22 (age 29.3): W vs Molly McCann, residual +0.552025-09-27 (age 29.9): W vs Loma Lookboonmee, residual +0.442026-03-28 (age 30.4): W vs Bruna Brasil, residual +0.282026-08-08 (age 30.7): W vs Amanda Lemos, residual +0.31+0.04

Each dot is one decided UFC bout at her age then: the performance score minus the rating's expectation, on the score's own scale from -1 to +1 (filled = win, hollow = loss; above zero is better than the rating implied; a finish as a slight favourite is about +0.45). The dashed line is the population curve for all fighters; the solid line is this fighter's own fitted level and trend as of the data date, weighted toward recent bouts. One unit sustained over many bouts corresponds to about 695 rating points; a single bout's residual is noisy.

Held-out evidence (walk-forward 2016 to 2026, EXP-2026-10-21-01): the age curve held in every test year; the individual component is a weak signal (correlation 0.06 with the next bout's residual; among fighters aged 33 or over, the lowest predicted quartile won 38% of next bouts against 53% expected, the highest 48% against 52%) and adds nothing to bout prediction beyond the shadow model. No board uses any of it: the rankings answer who has earned the place, not who wins next (EXP-2026-10-20-09). Method: src/mmalab/decline.py; settings: config/decline.yaml (expectation from the resume rating; one unit of residual is about 695 rating points).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like her, not a forecast for her; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.