Heavyweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #4; v1.1 (shadow) #4
Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).
Weight band 4-4: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights (the position does not depend on the weights). Rating 1,788, deviation 117: measured from 13 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290. Division set by a documented override (config/division_overrides.yaml).
Age 39 (born 1987-07-07) · Height 6 ft 4 in (193 cm) · Reach 79 in (201 cm) · Stance Orthodox · 140 days since last bout (2026-06-14) · Last five 3-2 · Streak L1
Why he is ranked here
Rating 1,788 is the division's highest below the champion; the ledger stands at +9.5 (+10.5 from quality wins, less 1.0 for blowout losses; losses count for three years); 8 quality wins in 15 years, 8 over top-10 opponents, which makes him entrenched; no form penalty (3-2 last five). Score +1.23 = +0.76 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.47 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #1; the title-cycle rule (a losing title challenger is held at #4 or lower for 270 days, and the fighters behind move up) placed him #4.
Term
Value
Detail
Score
+1.23
70% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term
+0.76
resume rating 1,788, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.
Career statistics
Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 55 board fighters at Heavyweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.
Output
Significant strikes landed per minute
5.01
(76th percentile at Heavyweight)
Significant strike accuracy
61%
(82nd percentile at Heavyweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes
0.75
(73rd percentile at Heavyweight)
Share of wins by finish
80%
(65th percentile at Heavyweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute
3.72
(51st percentile at Heavyweight)
Significant strike defence
53%
(64th percentile at Heavyweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes
0.22
(49th percentile at Heavyweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career
518
(85th percentile at Heavyweight)
KO/TKO losses
2 (last 2026-06-14, 140 days ago)
(82nd percentile at Heavyweight)
Submission losses
0
(76th percentile at Heavyweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger
0.027
(42nd percentile at Heavyweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes
0.11
(40th percentile at Heavyweight)
Takedown defence
80%
(60th percentile at Heavyweight)
Share of cage time in control
2%
(18th percentile at Heavyweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground
19%
(42nd percentile at Heavyweight)
Style
striker (0.2 takedown attempts per 15 min; 2% control)
Career stage
Age
39.3
(92nd percentile at Heavyweight)
Age at UFC debut
34.3
(86th percentile at Heavyweight)
Years since UFC debut
5.0
(76th percentile at Heavyweight)
UFC bouts
13
(82nd percentile at Heavyweight)
Cage time, minutes
139
(85th percentile at Heavyweight)
Bouts per year, last three years
2.3
(73rd percentile at Heavyweight)
Days since last bout
140
(73rd percentile at Heavyweight)
Board position since Oct 2023
Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Listed at Heavyweight, then Light Heavyweight, then Heavyweight, then Light Heavyweight, then Heavyweight over this period.
Predictive rating by bout
Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.
Trajectory
Recent performances run about 73 points behind the rating: fighters this age typically run 93 points behind their rating, and his own recent results recover 20 of those points.
Component
Points
Meaning
Age component
-93
what fighters aged 39.3 typically run relative to their rating (population curve, all UFC bouts since 2011)
Own recent results
+20
his recency-weighted mean and trend over 13 bouts, shrunk toward zero; trend -7 points a year
Combined
-73
the rating's likely distance from his current performance level, in rating points
Reading
behind rating
ahead of, in line with (within 30 points), or behind the rating
Performance relative to the rating, by age
Each dot is one decided UFC bout at his age then: the performance score minus the rating's expectation, on the score's own scale from -1 to +1 (filled = win, hollow = loss; above zero is better than the rating implied; a finish as a slight favourite is about +0.45). The dashed line is the population curve for all fighters; the solid line is this fighter's own fitted level and trend as of the data date, weighted toward recent bouts. One unit sustained over many bouts corresponds to about 695 rating points; a single bout's residual is noisy.
Held-out evidence (walk-forward 2016 to 2026, EXP-2026-10-21-01): the age curve held in every test year; the individual component is a weak signal (correlation 0.06 with the next bout's residual; among fighters aged 33 or over, the lowest predicted quartile won 38% of next bouts against 53% expected, the highest 48% against 52%) and adds nothing to bout prediction beyond the shadow model. No board uses any of it: the rankings answer who has earned the place, not who wins next (EXP-2026-10-20-09). Method: src/mmalab/decline.py; settings: config/decline.yaml (expectation from the resume rating; one unit of residual is about 695 rating points).
Context flags
Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.
Age band: 36 and over (age 39). On the board's own history (3,748 bouts between two board fighters, 2014 to 2026) the higher-scored fighter won 64% of bouts when under 30, 59% at 30 to 32, 57% at 33 to 35 and 42 to 46% at 36 and over (EXP-2026-10-20-09). A population rate, not a forecast for him.
Not raised: no KO/TKO loss in the last 90 days; last bout within 12 months; 13 UFC bouts, more than the provisional limit of 3.
REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.