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Abubakar Vagaev

Middleweight · REAL v1.0 (registered) #37; v1.1 (shadow) #31

Descriptive profile. The resume rank is what has been earned; these statistics are context, not a prediction. A test on Oct 20, 2026 found that career statistics add nothing reliable to age, layoff and experience as predictors of the next result (experiments/REGISTER.md, EXP-2026-10-20-14).

Weight band 34-40: the 10th to 90th percentile of his position across weight vectors drawn near the 70/30 weights. Rating 1,518, deviation 227: measured from 2 UFC bouts; a one-bout newcomer sits near 290. Provisional: 2 UFC bouts; the rating rests on little evidence.

Age 33 (born 1993-04-14) · Height unknown · Reach unknown · Stance unknown · 8 days since last bout (2026-10-24) · Last five 2-0 · Streak W2

Why he is ranked here

Rating 1,518 is the division's 50th highest of 79 board fighters; the ledger stands at +0.0 (no quality wins or recent losses on the ledger); 0 quality wins in 15 years, 0 over top-10 opponents; no form penalty (2-0 last five). Score -0.01 = -0.07 (rating term, 70% weight) +0.06 (ledger term, 30% weight) -0.00 (form penalty); score order put him at #37.

TermValueDetail
Score-0.0170% rating term + 30% ledger term - form penalty
Rating term-0.07resume rating 1,518, scaled against the division's interdecile range
Ledger term+0.06quality ledger +0.0: +0.0 QW +0.0 proof -0.0 blowout -0.0 weak
Form penalty0.00last five 2-0
Quality wins, 15 years00 over top-10 opponents, 0 over top-15
Placementscore order #37v1.0 (registered)
Shadow board v1.1#31score -0.01; score order #31

Rules, weights and worked examples: methodology.

All 2 UFC bouts

DateEventOpponentOpp. official rankResultMethodRoundModel p
2026-10-24UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. EvloevJacob MalkoununrankedWunanimous decision3 (5:00)36%
2026-07-25UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. GuskovSaygid IzagakhmaevunrankedWunanimous decision3 (5:00)47%

Opp. official rank = the UFC media-panel rank of the opponent on the date (C champion, #1 to #15, unranked; n/a before Feb 2013 or where no official board existed). Model p = the predictive model's pre-fight win chance for him (frozen performance-adjusted Elo; bouts before 2020 were in its tuning sample). Linked opponents have a profile.

Career statistics

Through 2026-10-31, UFC bouts only. Percentile = share of the 79 board fighters at Middleweight at or below this value; high is a position in the division, not a verdict.

Output
Significant strikes landed per minute3.27(37th percentile at Middleweight)
Significant strike accuracy47%(33rd percentile at Middleweight)
Knockdowns scored per 15 minutes0.00(30th percentile at Middleweight)
Share of wins by finish0%(12th percentile at Middleweight)
Defence and damage
Significant strikes absorbed per minute4.63(81st percentile at Middleweight)
Significant strike defence51%(48th percentile at Middleweight)
Knockdowns suffered per 15 minutes0.00(34th percentile at Middleweight)
Significant strikes absorbed, career139(35th percentile at Middleweight)
KO/TKO losses0(39th percentile at Middleweight)
Submission losses0(59th percentile at Middleweight)
KO/TKO losses per bout over 10 years, each weighted down by the finisher's danger0.000(39th percentile at Middleweight)
Grappling
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes5.00(95th percentile at Middleweight)
Takedown defence82%(78th percentile at Middleweight)
Share of cage time in control33%(76th percentile at Middleweight)
Share of significant strikes landed in the clinch or on the ground14%(29th percentile at Middleweight)
Stylewrestler (11.0 takedown attempts per 15 min; 33% control)
Career stage
Age33.5(57th percentile at Middleweight)
Age at UFC debut33.3(89th percentile at Middleweight)
Years since UFC debut0.3(6th percentile at Middleweight)
UFC bouts2(16th percentile at Middleweight)
Cage time, minutes30(32nd percentile at Middleweight)
Bouts per year, last three years2.0(58th percentile at Middleweight)
Days since last bout8(9th percentile at Middleweight)

Board position since Oct 2023

C102030405020252026Oct 2023Oct 20262026-07-31: #47, Welterweight2026-08-07: #48, Welterweight2026-08-14: #48, Welterweight2026-08-21: #47, Welterweight2026-08-28: #46, Welterweight2026-09-04: #47, Welterweight2026-09-11: #46, Welterweight2026-09-18: #45, Welterweight2026-09-25: #45, Welterweight2026-09-26: #45, Welterweight2026-10-03: #45, Welterweight2026-10-10: #45, Welterweight2026-10-17: #46, Welterweight2026-10-24: #37, Middleweight2026-10-31: #37, Middleweight#37

Position on the registered v1.0 board at each weekly snapshot (C = title holder or reserved, drawn at the top; lower is better). Listed at Welterweight, then Middleweight over this period. Absent from 117 of 132 snapshots (gaps in the line).

Predictive rating by bout

1,5001,550Jul 2026Oct 20262026-07-25: 1,512 (W vs Saygid Izagakhmaev)2026-10-24: 1,539 (W vs Jacob Malkoun)1,539

Rating after each UFC bout from the frozen predictive model (performance-adjusted Elo, data/processed/elo_history.csv; a debut starts at 1,500). The resume rating's history is not stored, so this is the predictive line, which is a different number from the resume rating in the header.

Trajectory

No trajectory index: it needs three decided UFC bouts and a bout within the last three years (config/decline.yaml).

Context flags

Descriptive only. Each line is a population fact about fighters like him, not a forecast for him; the register entries hold the measurements.

REAL v1.0 (registered method) · build c166ee8 · data through 2026-10-31 · page built 2026-11-06 · changelog. Independent fan research project built on public UFCStats data. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, LLC, TKO Group Holdings, or any athlete. All trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to identify athletes and events.